World

Amish Population Surpasses 400,000

This year, the number of Amish people in the United States passed the 400,000 mark, according to the Amish Studies Center at Elizabethtown College. The U.S. Amish population now totals 404,575, with an additional 6,380 Amish living in Canada. That’s an astounding rise for a group that numbered just 5,000 in 1900. Even more astounding, the Amish have maintained this rate of growth into the 21st century, as they are continuing on a track of doubling about every 20 years. In 2000, they numbered 177,910, showing a growth rate of 131 percent this century alone. If this rate keeps up in the near future — and there are only limited indications that the Amish growth rate is slowing down — the Amish will become a more dominant force in American society and provide an increasing portion of the country’s blue-collar workforce. If this rate of doubling every 20 years keeps up, in 2045, they will hit about 800,000 people; in 2065, they will hit about 1.6 million people; in 2085, they will hit about 3.2 million people; and in 2105, they will hit about 6.4 million people. Even if the growth rate slows somewhat, the Amish are well on track to number in the millions by the close of this century. If this exponential growth keeps up beyond the end of this century — a premise that can’t be seriously assented to this far out — the next century would see the Amish rise to become a major portion of America’s population. In 2125, they would hit 12.8 million people; in 2145, they would hit 25.6 million; In 2065, they would hit 51.2 million; and in 2185, they would surpass 100 million. By the close of the next century, they would be closing in on a population of 200 million. (RELATED: Tough Luck, Liberals! Conservatives Just Have More Babies) The Amish, who are traditionalist Anabaptists, demonstrate fertility rates that far exceed those of the rest of America. Whereas the U.S. fertility rate is 1.62 births per woman — well below replacement levels — the Amish hover between 6 and 7 children per woman. The more traditionalist a group is, the more children they have. For example, the Swartzentruber Amish have a fertility rate of 10.42 births per woman. Additionally, church leaders generally have larger families, showing that the Amish exhibit an “ideological pronatalism.” (RELATED: Desired Fertility Is Too Low to Avoid Depopulation) While fertility rates approached the Amish’s rate in preindustrial societies, those groups did not have the advantage of access to the most scientifically advanced health care system the world has ever known, which the Amish of course do. The Amish are also increasingly taking advantage of the full spectrum of America’s health care system, with Amish women giving birth in hospitals with greater frequency. The Amish do not believe in birth control, and, among all Pennsylvania Dutch speakers, there is only “some modest evidence of possible reproductive control,” meaning purposeful spacing via timed abstinence, starting at around ages 35 to 39, according to a study in Demographic Research. However, Pennsylvania Dutch speakers who live on farms and do not own phones demonstrated “natural fertility,” meaning there is no evidence that they are intervening in any way to slow the births of their children, even past the age of 35, the study found. Another advantage the Amish have when it comes to increasing their population is their extremely high retention rates. In fact, these rates have only gone up over the past 100 years. Steven Nolt, the director of the Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies at Elizabethtown College, cited a case study that showed that the Amish retention rate increased from the upper 70th percentile in the 1930s to 90 percent in 2000. While Order Amish retention rates are estimated to hover between 86 and 90 percent, more traditional sects have retention rates that are even higher. For instance, the Andy Weaver group has a 97 percent retention rate. In fact, one factor that seems to have a substantial impact on a given Amish group’s retention rate is the harshness of that group’s shunning practices: the harsher such practices are, the less likely people are to leave. (For comparison, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is experiencing slowing growth rates in large part due to its low retention rates.) In recent decades, the Amish have been shifting away from agriculture. Now, only about one-third of Amish men remain in agriculture, while the other two-thirds are engaged in manufacturing, construction, woodworking, small businesses, blacksmithing, and trades jobs. So far, the fertility rate for the Amish who choose occupations other than agriculture has held steady at 5.9, whereas farming families experience a higher fertility rate of 6.88. The Amish belief that large families are a blessing from God has evidently remained ingrained even as the Amish have shifted to working in closer quarters with the non-Amish. What could slow the growth of the Amish? First, farmland is getting more expensive, and making a profit from more traditional farming practices is increasingly unrealistic given the improvements in agricultural technology around the world. For now, the Amish appear to be withstanding their transition away from agriculture, but eventually this transformation away from something that has been so integral to their culture and toward greater interaction with the non-Amish world is bound to result in cultural changes that could direct them away from their high fertility rates. Also, if their population gets so large that even a plot of land that can support a few horses and a garden becomes too expensive, or if manual labor has less value in an increasingly robotic world, their population could be constrained by economic factors. Additionally, there is also always the threat of schisms that could lead significant numbers of Amish to reject the religion’s traditional cultural practices and integrate with the modern world. Alternatively, if the Amish population hits the 10-million mark by early next century, the group’s large size could insulate it against schisms toward more mainstream American life. If a wholly distinct culture with a population the size of the state of Michigan existed within the United States, it could develop enough influence to defend its interests and project cultural power. One factor in this would be whether the Amish decide to vote in larger numbers. Currently, only a minority votes. In a world where nearly every group across continents is experiencing decreasing fertility rates, and some countries — such as South Korea, Japan, and China — are facing the prospect of civilizational suicide due to their shockingly low fertility rates, the Amish’s stubborn adherence to having large families makes them look like the only ones who care to pass on their culture to future generations. (RELATED: This Is What Civilizational Suicide Looks Like) At the very least, in this century, those cultures that refuse to reproduce in numbers significant enough to maintain their size will see themselves fall, even as those with a will to live will grow in power and stature. China’s population, currently 1.4 billion, is set to hit 633 million by the close of this century, according to the UN, suggesting that the country faces a road of painful decline. But for the Amish, the end of this century could be just the beginning of their population reaching into the millions. READ MORE from Ellie Gardey Holmes: Has the Left Moved on From Climate Change? The Biggest Winner of This Year’s Elections: Gavin Newsom Media Denies Christian Genocide in Response to Trump’s Threat of Military Action in Nigeria

Unknown • November 12, 2025

Even more astounding, the Amish have maintained this rate of growth into the 21st century, as they are continuing on a track of doubling about every 20 years. In 2000, they numbered 177,910, showing a growth rate of 131 percent this century alone.

If this rate keeps up in the near future — and there are only limited indications that the Amish growth rate is slowing down — the Amish will become a more dominant force in American society and provide an increasing portion of the country’s blue-collar workforce.

If this rate of doubling every 20 years keeps up, in 2045, they will hit about 800,000 people; in 2065, they will hit about 1.6 million people; in 2085, they will hit about 3.2 million people; and in 2105, they will hit about 6.4 million people. Even if the growth rate slows somewhat, the Amish are well on track to number in the millions by the close of this century.

If this exponential growth keeps up beyond the end of this century — a premise that can’t be seriously assented to this far out — the next century would see the Amish rise to become a major portion of America’s population. In 2125, they would hit 12.8 million people; in 2145, they would hit 25.6 million; In 2065, they would hit 51.2 million; and in 2185, they would surpass 100 million. By the close of the next century, they would be closing in on a population of 200 million. (RELATED: Tough Luck, Liberals! Conservatives Just Have More Babies)

The Amish, who are traditionalist Anabaptists, demonstrate fertility rates that far exceed those of the rest of America. Whereas the U.S. fertility rate is 1.62 births per woman — well below replacement levels — the Amish hover between 6 and 7 children per woman. The more traditionalist a group is, the more children they have. For example, the Swartzentruber Amish have a fertility rate of 10.42 births per woman. Additionally, church leaders generally have larger families, showing that the Amish exhibit an “ideological pronatalism.” (RELATED: Desired Fertility Is Too Low to Avoid Depopulation)

While fertility rates approached the Amish’s rate in preindustrial societies, those groups did not have the advantage of access to the most scientifically advanced health care system the world has ever known, which the Amish of course do. The Amish are also increasingly taking advantage of the full spectrum of America’s health care system, with Amish women giving birth in hospitals with greater frequency.

The Amish do not believe in birth control, and, among all Pennsylvania Dutch speakers, there is only “some modest evidence of possible reproductive control,” meaning purposeful spacing via timed abstinence, starting at around ages 35 to 39, according to a study in Demographic Research. However, Pennsylvania Dutch speakers who live on farms and do not own phones demonstrated “natural fertility,” meaning there is no evidence that they are intervening in any way to slow the births of their children, even past the age of 35, the study found.

Another advantage the Amish have when it comes to increasing their population is their extremely high retention rates. In fact, these rates have only gone up over the past 100 years. Steven Nolt, the director of the Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies at Elizabethtown College, cited a case study that showed that the Amish retention rate increased from the upper 70th percentile in the 1930s to 90 percent in 2000. While Order Amish retention rates are estimated to hover between 86 and 90 percent, more traditional sects have retention rates that are even higher. For instance, the Andy Weaver group has a 97 percent retention rate. In fact, one factor that seems to have a substantial impact on a given Amish group’s retention rate is the harshness of that group’s shunning practices: the harsher such practices are, the less likely people are to leave. (For comparison, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is experiencing slowing growth rates in large part due to its low retention rates.)

In recent decades, the Amish have been shifting away from agriculture. Now, only about one-third of Amish men remain in agriculture, while the other two-thirds are engaged in manufacturing, construction, woodworking, small businesses, blacksmithing, and trades jobs. So far, the fertility rate for the Amish who choose occupations other than agriculture has held steady at 5.9, whereas farming families experience a higher fertility rate of 6.88. The Amish belief that large families are a blessing from God has evidently remained ingrained even as the Amish have shifted to working in closer quarters with the non-Amish.

What could slow the growth of the Amish? First, farmland is getting more expensive, and making a profit from more traditional farming practices is increasingly unrealistic given the improvements in agricultural technology around the world. For now, the Amish appear to be withstanding their transition away from agriculture, but eventually this transformation away from something that has been so integral to their culture and toward greater interaction with the non-Amish world is bound to result in cultural changes that could direct them away from their high fertility rates. Also, if their population gets so large that even a plot of land that can support a few horses and a garden becomes too expensive, or if manual labor has less value in an increasingly robotic world, their population could be constrained by economic factors. Additionally, there is also always the threat of schisms that could lead significant numbers of Amish to reject the religion’s traditional cultural practices and integrate with the modern world.

Alternatively, if the Amish population hits the 10-million mark by early next century, the group’s large size could insulate it against schisms toward more mainstream American life. If a wholly distinct culture with a population the size of the state of Michigan existed within the United States, it could develop enough influence to defend its interests and project cultural power. One factor in this would be whether the Amish decide to vote in larger numbers. Currently, only a minority votes.

In a world where nearly every group across continents is experiencing decreasing fertility rates, and some countries — such as South Korea, Japan, and China — are facing the prospect of civilizational suicide due to their shockingly low fertility rates, the Amish’s stubborn adherence to having large families makes them look like the only ones who care to pass on their culture to future generations. (RELATED: This Is What Civilizational Suicide Looks Like)

At the very least, in this century, those cultures that refuse to reproduce in numbers significant enough to maintain their size will see themselves fall, even as those with a will to live will grow in power and stature. China’s population, currently 1.4 billion, is set to hit 633 million by the close of this century, according to the UN, suggesting that the country faces a road of painful decline. But for the Amish, the end of this century could be just the beginning of their population reaching into the millions.