Antique bets on Adani Ports' scale, margins; initiates coverage with 'Buy'

Domestic brokerage Antique Stock Broking has initiated coverage on Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹1,773, valuing the company at 16x its consolidated H1FY28E enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda). The valuation reflects a marginal premium to its five-year historical average multiple of 14.9x, which Antique says is justified by APSEZ’s scale-led advantages, growing market share, and superior return profile. “We initiate coverage on APSEZ with a ‘Buy’ rating at a TP of ₹1,773, valuing the stock at 16x consolidated H1FY28E EV/Ebitda (marginal premium to historic 5 year average EV/Ebitda multiple of 14.9x due to APSEZ's scale with increasing market share, and superior return profile),” said Pallav Agarwal and Dhruvesh Kanakia of Antique Stock Broking in a note dated November 25, 2025. According to the brokerage, three factors underpin its bullish stance, which include APSEZ’s industry-leading volume growth and margin profile, its integrated ‘port-to-customer gate’ logistics model, and its aggressive but disciplined expansion strategy that is expected to unlock substantial long-term value. Industry leader with consistent outperformance Antique analysts noted that APSEZ has transformed from a single-port operator into India’s largest integrated transport utility, with a rapidly expanding network of 15 domestic and four international ports and terminals. This scale, supported by multimodal connectivity, has enabled APSEZ to consistently outpace the broader Indian port sector. Over FY17-25, the company delivered a domestic cargo volume CAGR of 12.4 per cent, nearly three times the all-India average of around 4.3 per cent. Consequently, APSEZ’s market share has climbed from 14.9 per cent to 27 per cent, reinforcing its dominant position in India’s EXIM ecosystem. Its port capacity has risen to 633 MMT domestically and 115 MMT internationally, including phase-1 of the Colombo port and the approved North Queensland Export Terminal. In FY25, APSEZ handled a record 450 MMT of cargo at a consolidated Ebitda margin of 60.4 per cent, one of the highest in the sector. The company targets 505–515 MMT in FY26 and aims to double volumes to 1,000 MMT by FY29, an ambition Antique analysts see as achievable given its expanding asset base and diversified cargo mix. Cargo diversification, with exposure to dry bulk, containers, liquid cargo, crude, LNG and agri commodities, shields the business from seasonal fluctuations while long-term relationships with marquee customers ensure stable revenue. Sticky or recurring cargo accounted for 56 per cent of FY25 volumes. Integrated logistics model deepens customer stickiness A major pillar of Antique’s bullish view is APSEZ’s transition into an integrated logistics powerhouse. The company has built a seamless ecosystem connecting ports to the hinterland through 132 rakes, 937 owned trucks (and over 20,000 managed), 12 multimodal logistics parks, 3.1 million sq ft of warehousing, and 1.3 MMT of agri-silos. By controlling critical supply chain touchpoints, from marine services to first- and last-mile logistics, APSEZ offers customers a single-window ‘port-to-gate’ experience. This integration, the brokerage said, enhances operational efficiency, accelerates cargo turnaround, and strengthens customer retention. It also positions APSEZ to gain disproportionately from the government’s National Logistics Policy and Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047, both of which aim to improve India’s logistics competitiveness and port-led development. Growth-focused yet financially disciplined Despite its aggressive expansion pipeline, analysts point out that APSEZ has strengthened its balance sheet meaningfully. Net debt-to-Ebitda has declined from 3.3x in FY21 to 1.8x at the end of 2QFY26, comfortably below management’s 2.5x threshold. The company’s environmental clearance capacity has expanded to 1,560 MMT and it has outlined ambitious FY29 targets, which include 300 rakes, 20 MMLPs, 10 MMT of agri-silos, 20 million sq ft of warehousing space and 5,000 trucks. APSEZ also plans to triple its marine services business and will deploy ₹11,000-12,000 crore in capex in FY26 to support these initiatives. Hence, Antique expects APSEZ’s consolidated revenue, Ebitda and PAT to grow at CAGRs of 15.3 per cent, 14.0 per cent and 16.1 per cent respectively through FY28, supported by rising cargo throughput, better cargo mix, and deeper logistics penetration. With a strong balance sheet, industry-leading margins and a network advantage that is difficult to replicate, analysts believe APSEZ is well-placed to emerge as a billion-ton transport utility by the end of the decade. Disclaimer: Target price and stock outlook has been suggested by Antique Stock Broking. Views expressed are their own.