Caerphilly byelection result live: Plaid Cyrmu beats challenge from Reform UK to win pivotal Welsh parliament vote

4.52am BST Plaid’s byelection win comes as a vote on the Welsh government’s budget is ahead and causing concern for the Labour administration. Now Labour it will have only 29 of the 60 seats in the Senedd and deals will have to be made to get the 2026-27 budget through. When passing its last budget in March, the Welsh government needed the vote of an opposition member to get it passed by a slim margin. As Steven Morris has reported, Labour’s standing in Wales has dropped off a cliff since Vaughan Gething stepped down as first minister last year amid a donations scandal. His successor, Eluned Morgan, has tried – but so far failed – to draw a line between Welsh Labour and the increasingly unpopular UK party. Updated at 4.56am BST 4.16am BST Returning to Lindsay Whittle’s acceptance speech after his big win, the Plaid Cymru candidate also said he had been “absolutely heartened” by the number of young people involved in the campaign. Across the entire constituency, people not interested in politics have been – I’ve had selfies taken before, I’ve never had this. At that point he addressed Cardiff and Westminster directly, saying “we’re telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales”. Whittle, who will represent Caerphilly in the Senedd, said: The big parties need to sit up and take notice. We’re at the dawn of new leadership, we’re at the dawn of a new beginning, and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales. And in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency, I thank you with all of my heart. This is better than scoring the winning try for Wales against New Zealand in the Rugby World Cup. 3.40am BST Returning now to comments from Labor’s Huw Irranca-Davies, its most senior figure at the Caerphilly count also said the party needed to do “some really rapid reflection on the reasons” for its defeat. I think we need to get back to focusing on those bread and butter issues, things such as cost of living, the money in people’s pockets, jobs and opportunities for young people here but also the quality of the towns, the environment. Irranca-Davies, the deputy first minister of Wales, criticised Reform for focusing on immigration, saying the byelection campaign had been “characterised by messages of division and discord from one particular party”, and insisted Labour would fight back. We’ve always been good at running an energetic election campaign. We have loyal volunteers who will come out and they will work the streets in a way that no other party will do. We’ll have the in-depth conversations. Irranca-Davies also said Labour needed to remind people that Welsh Labour defended them when the Tories were in power in the UK government. Now Labor had “a compelling and serious forward offer here in Wales, helped by the UK government”, he said. We’re starting to turn the corner. Our challenge is in the next six months saying to people, things will get better, hope, aspiration, and we can do it when we have two governments working together. And that’s our challenge, and it’s a big challenge. Updated at 3.42am BST 3.23am BST Welsh Labour’s leader, Eluned Morgan, says it has “heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly” and that it takes its share of the responsibility for the byelection loss. A statement from Morgan, the first minister of Wales, said: This was a byelection in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally. I want to thank our candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe - a good man who stood because of his desire to serve his community. I congratulate Lindsey Whittle on his victory tonight. He returns to the Senedd, continuing his many decades of elected service to people in Caerphilly. Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough. We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger. Updated at 3.28am BST 3.14am BST Plaid Cymru’s byelection win in south Wales is a dramatic result signalling a sharp realignment in Welsh politics with repercussions for the whole of Britain, writes Steven Morris in his full report on the win. Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party, which wants Wales to become independent, seized the Senedd (Welsh parliament) constituency from Labour and resisted a fierce challenge from Reform UK. “Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster,” Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle said after his win. “This is Caerphilly. And we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning.” See the full report here: Related: Plaid Cymru ousts Labour in Caerphilly byelection Updated at 3.30am BST 2.58am BST The most senior Labour figure at the count, Huw Irranca-Davies – the deputy first minister of Wales – accepted the party would have to think deeply about the result but struck a defiant tone. He said: Some people are now writing us off. I have to paraphrase Mark Twain: rumours about death are greatly exaggerated. We are a formidable force and there are deep roots of Labour in these communities. Going forward, what we need to do is actually be very bold, very brave and on the front foot and actually deal with the doom-mongers that only want to sow the politics of discord and discontent and get on the front foot again. Politics is always won by hope and aspiration and being on the side of people and saying you can have a better future. Irranca-Davies also said: There have been occasions before where Wales has lost seats that are deep red and on those occasions we’ve come back and we’ve bounced back. And the reason we’ve bounced back is we’ve come back having listened and come back with a compelling vision for people that is better than the doom and discord of people like Reform. Reform is utter doom, utter misery, utter everybody else’s fault. And what we need to say to people is actually there is a different type of politics here. You’ve seen this not just within the UK over decades but internationally, the best leaders are the ones that can lift people’s heads up and say we can be better so much better than this. So it’s all to play for. I have no difficulty being written off as my party as the underdog in this. Underdogs could bite back. Updated at 3.01am BST 2.46am BST The Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said the result meant his party was in the driving seat to take control of the Welsh government at next year’s Senedd elections. He said: We had a very clear message that we wanted to get across to people - the strength of our candidate, our commitment to this area where Plaid Cymru has roots going back so so many years and the fact that we as a party are in a place where we are setting sights on leading government from next year. Plus also of course there was the element of wanting to stop Reform and showing that we could stop Reform here in Wales. Ap Iorwerth said the party would now set its sights on winning power. There is deep, deep disillusionment with Labour, both on a UK level and at a Welsh government level, and the people are looking for new leadership. A Plaid Cymru win here tonight is the clearest evidence yet of who is in the driving seat to lead government for next year. I want people to see Plaid Cymru as being that positive alternative. We’ve known throughout this campaign that the results here would have a real bearing on how people would consider their options ahead of next May. This is about the future of Wales, about us, as a Plaid Cymru team, working with the people of Wales to change Wales forever. Ap Iorwerth said Plaid had to show voters there was an alternative to Reform. “ What we are trying to do is persuade them that there’s a positive alternative. We need parties with ideas, with the energy, with the drive, and a focus on the future of Wales. And I don’t think Reform have shown in anything that they’ve done that they are particularly interested in Wales. It’s all about getting Nigel Farage to Downing Street. 2.40am BST The losing Reform candidate, Llŷr Powell, made no speech from the stage after the result was announced. Speaking to reporters, he said he was excited at what the party had built in Wales. We decimated Labour. It’s a massive gain for us here. Powell rejected the idea the result was a blow for Nigel Farage and said the party would continue to get more voters registered and would do well at next year’s full Senedd elections. 2.35am BST The losing Labour candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, said his party had run a positive campaign and had knocked on 75,000 doors. He said Labour would campaign hard ahead of next year’s full Senedd elections. 2.33am BST Winner Lindsay Whittle says Wales 'wants a better deal' In his acceptance speech, the winning Plaid candidate, Lindsay Whittle, joked he was not used to speaking first. He asked people to remember the late Hefin David, whose sudden death led to the byelection. “He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes but I promise I will walk the same path that he did. “I hope this will be an exciting time for politics in Wales. I’ve been heartened by the number of young people who have been involved in this campaign.” Whittle also said: Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster. This is Caerphilly. And we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning. Updated at 4.07am BST 2.32am BST How each candidate polled The vote numbers for the eight candidates in the byelection have come in at: Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle – 15,961 Reform UK’s Llyr Powell – 12,113 Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe – 3,713 Conservatives’ Gareth Potter – 690 Greens’ Gareth Hughes – 516 Liberal Democrats’ Steve Aicheler – 497 Gwlad’s Anthony Cook – 117 Ukip’s Roger Quilliam – 79 Updated at 4.04am BST 2.25am BST Whittle to Westminster: 'Don’t take us for granted' Lindsay Whittle has said the message to Westminster from his byelection win is: Don’t take us for granted. That’s what’s happened in the past. More on this shortly. Updated at 2.34am BST 2.15am BST Plaid beats challenge from Reform to win byelection Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle has been announced as the byelection winner. White received 15,961 votes, it was announced at the counting centre, while Reform’s Llyr Powell received 12,113. Whittle has spoken – we’ll bring you his comments in a moment. “It’s 14th time lucky for Lindsay Whittle,” the audience at the counting centre is told of the candidate, who has been a local councillor for half a century. Updated at 2.53am BST 2.12am BST The byelection candidates are being summoned to the stage at the Caerphilly leisure centre – a result could be immindent. Updated at 2.12am BST 2.11am BST Reform UK candidate Llŷr Powell denied the campaign had been all about immigration. He said: “My campaign has been about government policies and where best to put money into Caerphilly.” Powell said Reform had learnt a lot about campaigning, which would be put to good use at next year’s full Senedd elections. When you look at where we started, we had a blank slate. We had to go out there and find a lot of voters. We found a lot of support. It’s been a great campaign. The collapse of the Labour vote is there for everyone to see. It’s been a betrayal what Labour has done around here. Going into next year we’re in a really good place. A big part of what we were trying to do here is to master our campaigning. We’ve trained so many people up on our systems. We’re now a grassroots campaigning party. There’s been some tough elements. The front door of my home was kicked in. Glue was put in the campaign office locks. It’s sad our democratic process has come under attack. My activists spoke to thousands of people despite the smears, fears and attacks. 2.07am BST Here are some of the latest images coming in during the vote count amid suggestions the Caerphilly result will be in within an hour and perhaps even half that. Updated at 2.07am BST 2.05am BST The Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has arrived at the count, a sign that his party has done well. We’re told Reform UK leader Nigel Farage won’t be here. 1.57am BST The Plaid candidate, Lindsay Whittle, said it had been an exciting campaign for him and his party. I’ve had young people having selfies with me. One youngster jumped out of a car and told me I was his hero. That made me feel six-foot tall. Whittle was also keen to pay tribute to Hefin David, whose sudden death in the summer led to the byelection. Whittle knew David well and remembers a visit to Caerphilly’s twin town in Germany. It was cold and David needed to buy a new coat. “I hate shopping but I went with him,” Whittle said. Eventually they found a coat together. It led Whittle to nickname him “The man from C&A” after the fashion brand. “He was a good man,” Whittle said. Updated at 1.58am BST 1.48am BST Reform UK candidate Llyr Powell says he has been subjected to “attacks” on his property and office during the byelection campaign. “It’s quite sad that our democratic process has come under attack from a militant group out there,” Powell told the BBC at the Caerphilly counting centre, adding that he was “proud” of the campaign he and his team had run. He was also asked about an instance at the byelection debate when an audience member said Reform’s “rhetoric” had made her family feel “unwelcome” in the town. Powell told the broadcaster he was “surprised” by the remark because his campaign “has been about government policies and where best to put money”. Updated at 1.49am BST 1.40am BST The UK-wide significance of the election is shown in the number of journalists at the count in a leisure centre in Caerphilly – 83 were accredited. “Usually we have the local BBC and the Caerphilly Observer,” said one party worker. Updated at 1.42am BST 1.32am BST Voter turnout tops 50% The Caerphilly byelection turnout was 50.43%, according to reports, with a total of 33,736 constituency ballot papers being included in the count. The turnout figure is being described as a historic high for a Senedd byelection and for a Welsh devolved byelection. PA Media says the 50.43% turnout contrasts with the figure for the 2018 Alyn and Deeside byelection at just 29.1%. That was the last Senedd byelection before the death of Labour MS Hefin David triggered the poll in Caerphilly. Overall turnout, excluding spoilt or disallowed ballot papers, in the 2021 Senedd elections was 46.6%. There has never been a national turnout higher than 50%. 1.23am BST Speaking at the Caerphilly byelection count, Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, said she felt “excited and frightened”. I still feel so excited about the campaign that we ran, I think it’s been a really energetic campaign. I feel excited and frightened at the same time, and I wish there were a word for those things together, because there are two very starkly different scenarios ahead of us. One of them is going to unfold in the next few hours, either we will see Plaid Cymru emerging as the party that’s won this byelection or Reform, and it’s been obvious the whole time it was one or the other. PA Media also quoted Jewell as saying: No matter what way this goes, it’s going to be clear to voters in Wales that the only progressive party for the future of Wales is Plaid Cymru. We are also the only party that will be able to beat Reform. The momentum is with us, so no matter what happens in this byelection tonight, I think people’s minds will be focused. Updated at 1.26am BST 1.15am BST Labour has long held the Caerphilly Senedd and Westminster constituencies but, unless opinion polling is wide of the mark, the party is likely to be beaten into third this week with either Plaid or Reform UK seizing the Welsh parliament seat. As Steven Morris has reported, Plaid appeared to be picking up Labour votes disenchanted with the party’s performance both in Cardiff and Westminster while Reform hoovered up traditional Conservative voters and those impressed by its promises to end what it calls the “mass immigration agenda” of the other two parties. The Plaid Cymru candidate, Lindsay Whittle, who has been a local councillor for half a century, wants to win for two reasons – to further the cause of his beloved Plaid and to keep out Reform. “Labour is facing annihilation,” he said. “The Labour tree has finally died. The roots have gone and it’s dead.” If Labour loses in Caerphilly it will be a huge blow for the party that has dominated politics in Wales for a century. It faces an even bigger challenge next year when full Senedd elections take place. If it loses control of the Welsh government – and Reform does well – it will be seen as a signal of political transformation in the UK. Updated at 1.31am BST 1.10am BST Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK braced for results of Caerphilly byelection Hello and welcome to our live coverage as political leaders brace for the results of a byelection in Caerphilly that could mark a historic shift in Welsh politics. Labour has run the Senedd (Welsh parliament) since the devolved administration was established in 1999, and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds. But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government have run fierce campaigns in the south Wales constituency. In early polling before the vote, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were forecast to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year. The result in Caerphilly could be a bellwether for the Senedd election in May and is likely to be treated as such by the victorious party. The byelection also comes in the run-up to a vote on the next Welsh government budget, which has heaped even more pressure on the Labour campaign. When passing its budget in March, the government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through. While Labour is the largest party in the Senedd, it does not have a majority, and the budget vote in January could be even more difficult if the party loses the Caerphilly seat. Nigel Farage pledged to “throw everything” at the campaign in backing the Reform UK candidate, Llyr Powell. Plaid Cymru’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, is a longstanding councillor in the Penyrheol ward and the leader of the group on Caerphilly council. The Labour candidate is Richard Tunnicliffe, a financial analyst and publisher. The candidates fielded by other parties are Gareth Potter for the Conservatives, Gareth Hughes for the Greens, and Anthony Cook for Gwlad, a pro-independence party. Steve Aicheler is running for the Liberal Democrats and Roger Quilliam is the candidate for Ukip. The byelection was called after the death of Hefin Wyn David, a Labour politician who was first elected in Caerphilly in 2016. There will be an inquest into his death in April. Updated at 1.14am BST