One week into the season, VJ Edgecombe (+110) has officially surpassed Cooper Flagg (+115) as the favorite to win the NBA's Rookie of the Year, according to ESPN BET.
That is an amazing turnaround from where the season began, with Flagg as the prohibitive favorite and a prop available on ESPN BET of Flagg vs. the field, where the field was getting plus money.
How did we get here? And how likely is this state of events to persist over the season? Let's take a closer look.
Edgecombe is off to an amazing start, averaging 22.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.5 APG, 3.0 3PG and 1.5 SPG through his first four games while helping lead the Philadelphia 76ers to a surprising 4-0 start. But more than the numbers, his on-court demeanor and sense-of-the-moment have been amazing for a rookie.
He has taken and made big shots in crunch time; he has made huge defensive plays; he has stepped up to play a whopping 40.3 MPG, including major minutes in overtimes. Just all around an incredible start.
On the flip side, the Mavericks have opened the season with an experiment: Could Flagg play full-time point guard?
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That was a risk, because it's not an ideal use of Flagg's skill set. Flagg is a wing with excellent size and strength, physically more of a 3-4 combo forward than a swingman. He is a good ball handler and passer for his size, and he has a strong all-around game, but he'd be more natural as an off-ball option that creates from the elbow than someone that should be bringing the ball up and initiating the offense.
That's particularly true because the wings in the NBA tend to be smaller and quicker than Flagg, and can make life difficult for him if he's playing that role. Flagg has already faced excellent defensive wings like Stephon Castle, Scottie Barnes and the combo of Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace, and that has contributed to his slow start in the NBA.
Looking closer at Edgecombe: We have to expect some regression in his numbers. No one plays more than 40 minutes per game for an entire season in today's NBA, so his minutes will very likely roll back.
