FOCUS: LDP-JIP bloc may try to court individual lawmakers to gain Diet majority

TOKYO - Japan's newly launched ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, still short of a parliamentary majority, may try to draw independents and lawmakers from other groups into its camp in the coming weeks. A bumpy road lies ahead for the alliance led by Sanae Takaichi, who became Japan's first female prime minister on Tuesday, as it remains a minority in both houses of parliament and cannot pass budgets or bills without support from opposition forces. To address the situation, further expanding the coalition could be an option for the LDP and the JIP, also known as Nippon Ishin, but political experts say it is unrealistic in the near term due to delicate policy coordination. The coalition was agreed on Monday as the LDP sought a new partner after its longtime ally, the Komeito party, ended their 26-year partnership less than a week after Takaichi, a staunch conservative, won her party's leadership race on Oct. 4. Known for its dovish stance on defense, the centrist Komeito calls itself a "peace party," while the JIP shares conservative views with the LDP, vowing to revise the Constitution, which renounces war and prohibits Japan from maintaining a military. At a press conference with Takaichi after signing the coalition deal, JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, who serves as Osaka governor, said he confirmed through policy talks that the two parties share "basic values on diplomacy, security and the nature of the state." Takaichi also urged other parties with "aligned fundamental policies" to explore cooperation with the LDP-led bloc. Before the tie-up with the JIP, the Democratic Party for the People, another rising opposition party, was seen as a potential partner for the LDP. But Hitoshi Komiya, a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University, said it is "hard to imagine for the time being" that the LDP-JIP coalition will involve other parties, such as the DPP, citing differences in their policy priorities. He also mentioned the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the largest supporter of both the DPP and the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. The group, known as Rengo, has opposed its participation in the LDP-centered ruling camp. Komiya, an expert on political history, said Takaichi might instead adopt a strategy known as "personally targeting," or "ippon-zuri" in Japanese, meaning pole-and-line fishing, which the LDP used in the 1990s under then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto. The LDP fell into a minority after the October 1996 election in the powerful House of Representatives but regained their majority the following year by persuading about 20 opposition lawmakers to join the party individually. Now that the Komeito is no longer in the ruling coalition, some hawkish nonaffiliated and opposition lawmakers "may be tempted" by the ruling bloc, and even members of the DPP and the right-wing populist Sanseito party could be targets, Komiya said. Sanseito, led by Sohei Kamiya, is a populist party that gained traction in the House of Councillors election in July with its "Japanese people first" platform. He is a former rank-and-file member of the LDP. Tuesday's lower house vote for prime minister showed this is a distinct possibility. The LDP had approached seven independent lawmakers to back Takaichi, and some are believed to have done so, as she won 237 ballots even though the LDP and JIP together hold 231 seats. Experts, meanwhile, said it remains likely that Takaichi could dissolve the lower house for a snap election before opposition forces unite, in a bid to gain more seats, after they failed to field a joint prime ministerial candidate. During the campaign for the LDP presidential contest, Takaichi denied such an idea, saying the government must swiftly step up measures to tackle the "mounting challenges" Japan faces, including rising living costs. Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo, said, "Taking into account that Cabinet approval ratings tend to rise just after a new prime minister takes office, it may be possible that she opts to dissolve the lower house." Uchiyama, however, predicts that Takaichi will only make the decision if the LDP and the JIP can agree on a common electoral policy. Candidates from the LDP, which has been in power almost continuously since its founding in 1955, and the Osaka-based JIP have competed intensely for more than a decade, particularly in constituencies in the western Japan prefecture. "If the lower house is dissolved before the two parties coordinate their approach to elections, they might drift apart," Uchiyama said.