Gaza ceasefire deal: what has been agreed for ‘first phase’ and why now?

Israel and Hamas have agreed to an initial phase of the Gaza plan proposed last week by the US president, Donald Trump. Much remains uncertain but this could be the biggest step yet towards a durable end to the two-year war. What has happened? An agreement was made between the two sides after indirect talks this week in Egypt and announced by Trump on his Truth Social platform. It is due to come into effect at noon local time on Thursday and will pause hostilities in Gaza, with Israeli troops withdrawing to new positions. Hostages held by Hamas – of whom about 20 are thought to be alive – will be released within 72 hours with the remains of the others to follow. Between 1,700 and 2,000 Palestinian prisoners are to be freed from Israeli jails. There will be an increase of desperately needed aid. Why now? A combination of factors have come together to tip the balance. Israel’s wars have been repeatedly ended when US leaders step in forcefully. Already isolated internationally and under growing pressure at home, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, appears to have calculated that he cannot risk the support of his country’s staunchest and most powerful ally by refusing to call a halt to Israel’s relentless offensive. He also probably judged that he could ride out opposition to any deal from far-right members of his coalition government – especially if the terms of any deal favour Israel, as appears to be the case at the moment. At the same time, Hamas has been unable to inflict significant losses on Israel’s forces in Gaza or effectively slow their advance. The militant Islamist organisation is under pressure from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey to make concessions, and its future would look perilous without some degree of support from, or at least understanding among, these regional powers. Hamas leaders, who are mostly living outside Gaza, seem to have been at least partially convinced by the argument that the hostages they are holding have become a liability, merely offering Israel a reason to continue the conflict. After all, they can claim that survival is a victory. But is this just an initial step? Yes, and probably about the easiest one. It is still unclear exactly how much ground Israeli forces are going to give up – Israeli media are talking about holding on to more than half of Gaza for the moment – and what the timetable for even a partial withdrawal could be. It is also unclear if Hamas will disarm, and in what measures, and this is likely to be highly problematic. And it seems unlikely that Hamas and its militants in Gaza will accept an amnesty or go into exile, as Trump’s 21-point plan specifies. Then there are other questions to be resolved – the exact form of the governance in Gaza after the war’s definitive end, the devastated territory’s potential reconstruction, who could provide troops for an international “stabilisation” force, and much else. All this is yet to be fully negotiated and or even explicitly agreed in principle. So war could start again? There are multiple potential pathways that could lead to renewed conflict, but it seems unlikely there will be a rapid return to hostilities. More likely, if the war were to resume it would be that a fragile ceasefire holds for weeks, even months, as negotiations on further phases falter, and then falls apart when either side decides they can gain a new advantage through further fighting. But more optimistically, what is happening now feels very different from previous ceasefires in November 2023 and January 2025, and both Hamas and Netanyahu seem to believe they can get more from a deal than continuing the conflict. Regional powers will have to remain engaged, international leaders will have to take risks to push both parties to do things they do not want to do, Hamas must remain convinced that further violence now will not serve its cause – or the wider cause of all Palestinians – and the campaigning for an imminent election in Israel must reinforce rather than undermine any deal. Perhaps above all, Trump must continue to be interested in securing some kind of longer-term peace in Gaza and even a new broader Middle Eastern diplomatic reset. All are big “ifs”, but, almost exactly two years after the deadly October 2023 Hamas raid that triggered the war and the relentless Israeli offensive that reduced Gaza to a bloody ruin, this conflict may now be nearing an end.