NDA return or Mahagathbandhan revival? Bihar decides today

Bihar stands on the edge of a political cliffhanger. As counting begins on Friday for the high-stakes Assembly elections, the big question is whether Nitish Kumar, the state’s longest-serving chief minister, will script history with a record fifth term or whether a change of guard is on the cards.Most exit polls have given the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a clear edge over the Mahagathbandhan, setting the stage for what could be one of Bihar’s most closely watched results in years. The outcome will hinge on whether Nitish Kumar’s two-decade-old promise of sushasan (good governance) still holds sway over an electorate that turned out in record numbers.Counting of votes across 46 centres will begin at 8 am, with early trends expected by 9 am. The results will determine the fate of 2,616 contestants across 243 constituencies.Bihar Assembly elections in a nutshell Over two phases of polling, Bihar logged a record 66.91 per cent turnout, the highest since 1951. This surge may prove to be decisive in a state where high voter participation has often signalled change. Women outnumbered men by over 4.3 lakh votes despite being fewer on the rolls. Their turnout, 69 per cent in Phase 1 and a stunning 74 per cent in Phase 2, could tilt the balance towards Nitish Kumar. During his 20-year reign, the JD(U) chief's welfare schemes, from cycles to cash transfers, have long targeted women beneficiaries..preferred-source-banner{ margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom:10px;} Both camps have claimed the higher turnout will work in their favour. While the Mahagathbandhan pegged it as a yearning for change, the NDA touted it as a reflection of the people’s trust in Nitish’s governance. If the NDA holds its ground, Nitish Kumar, written off by many before the campaign began, will return as chief minister for a record fifth term. The JD(U) chief faces the twin challenges of anti-incumbency and questions over his health, but the exit polls suggest a late surge in his favour. The Axis My India survey forecast 121-141 seats for the NDA, while giving 98-118 seats to the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav. Boosted by Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha’s parties, the ruling coalition's predicted vote share stands at 43 per cent, up from its 37 per cent in 2020. A combined average of nine exit polls puts the NDA comfortably past the halfway mark, projecting over 147 seats in the 243-member Assembly. The Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, is not expected to cross 100 seats. Pollsters predict a marginal 4 per cent vote share for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which drew crowds but may fail to win seats. However, its presence could fragment the Mahagathbandhan vote in tight contests. Key battles to watch include Raghopur, where Tejashwi Yadav is seeking re-election. His estranged brother Tej Pratap is in a three-cornered fight in Mahua. In Tarapur, Finance Minister Samrat Choudhary is in the fray, while Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha is contesting from his home turf, Lakhisarai. In the run-up to the polls, Bihar saw campaigning of contrasts. The ruling NDA leaned on its welfare record, promising Rs 10,000 to women entrepreneurs and 125 MW of free electricity. PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah campaigned extensively, invoking the “jungle raaj” refrain against the RJD’s return. The Mahagathbandhan countered with its own populist pitch — one government job per family and a Rs 30,000 dole for poor women. Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, campaigned on alleged irregularities in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, terming it "vote chori". - EndsPublished By: Devika BhattacharyaPublished On: Nov 14, 2025Must Watch