Netherlands braced for exit poll in parliamentary election – Europe live

7.59pm GMT The exit poll is imminent now. I will bring you the numbers as soon as we have them. 7.58pm GMT 'Neck and neck race' between four parties, pollster says Pollster Bart Koenen, who works for Verian on polls for EenVandaag, told the Guardian a bit earlier that the result was on a knife-edge. “It’s going to be exciting. The two national polls that followed ours showed the PVV is in decline and that it’s going to be a neck and neck race between the PVV, PvdA/GL, CDA, and D66.” Updated at 7.58pm GMT 7.58pm GMT in Rotterdam Lisa Vliegenthart, 32, from Rijswijk and 27th on the list for election for GreenLeft-PvdA, said that she came from a family of PVV voters who believed that it was no longer the answer. “I come from a typical working-class family. My father is a tram driver, my mother works in a nursery and my brother in the building industry – it’s a typical example. I come from a family that used to feel seen and heart by Wilders – but for some years has realised this is not the way. The way is to do it together, to have solidarity with each other. And I see that in the story of GreenLeft and the PvdA coming together. I am hearing that people really believe in this.” Mart, a party volunteer who did not want to give his second name, said it might be tricky to know the final result until the definitive count. “It is so close, we will probably know tomorrow morning,” he said. It’s a tense time. 7.56pm GMT in Rotterdam Back at the GreenLeft-PvdA alliance’s election party in Rotterdam, Outkast’s hit “Hey Ya” just played out loud, followed by Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry Be Happy” (“Every little thing is gonna be alright”), and the big screen reads “Going forward together.” Let’s see what’s the mood like when the exit poll comes in just a few minutes. 7.50pm GMT Dutch exit poll expected soon – but how accurate is it? Europe correspondent Just after polls close at 9pm CET (8pm GMT), public broadcaster NOS and the RTL private broadcaster will release their exit poll, based on votes from 65 polling stations selected by pollster Ipsos I&O to provide “a good cross-section of all polling stations in the Netherlands”. The exit poll is in effect a mini-election, in which about 75,000 statistically representative voters are asked to cast a second ballot, the same as the first but in the pollster’s box rather than the polling station’s. Given the large number of participants, the poll is reasonably accurate – but it is often out by one or two seats per party. In the previous 2023 elections, for example, the PVV won two more seats than predicted and D66 three fewer. If one party is well ahead, this obviously does not make too much of a difference to the outcome. But this year the margins are very tight, with the three leading parties all forecast to win roughly the same number of seats. Wilders’ PVV is put at between 24 and 28 seats, the green-left/Labour alliance GL/PvdA between 22 and 26, and the liberal-progressive D66 between 21 and 25 – and a difference of just one or two seats from the exit poll could, potentially, be crucial. Updated at 7.53pm GMT 7.49pm GMT Just to bring you more expert voices, Katja Bego of the Chatham House thinktank said in her pre-election analysis that “though foreign policy topics may so far not have featured prominently on the campaign trail, there are likely to be shared priorities” for a potential coalition of more moderate forces. She said: “Under the Schoof government, the Netherlands remained one of Ukraine’s staunchest financial backers, but lost its seat at the table when it came to the diplomatic and strategic side of European security debates. While well-connected Rutte allowed the Netherlands to punch above its weight in Brussels, newcomer Schoof’s lack of profile and party safety net, as well as coalition divisions, saw him relegated to the sidelines on issues ranging from Gaza to Ukraine. “CDA, D66 and GroenLinks-PvdA have all said they want the Netherlands to be more visible in the international arena again. “The three parties in question have also all committed to increasing defence spending to the new Nato norm of 3.5% until at least 2030, and will likely continue the previous two governments’ line on rearmament … “Unlike elements of the previous government, a middle coalition would also generally support further European integration.” Updated at 7.55pm GMT 7.41pm GMT Centre-left Green Left/Labour 'very tense, but very hopeful' of good election result in Rotterdam In a former grain warehouse in Rotterdam, Frans Timmermans’ GreenLeft-PvdA alliance was expecting 2,000 guests – voters, MPs, hopefuls and campaigners. Clustering in the three large rooms, people said that the close polls made it a tense night. Esmee Lahlah, one of the party’s best-known MPs, and second on the list, said: “It is very tense, but also very hopeful. Of course, we are in our bubble where all of our family and friends say they will vote for us, but it’s also nerve-racking. [The PVV] is really dropping, so I hope that by the end of this evening, we can say that it is the end of the Wilders era. I really hope so. Populists really appeal to people’s gut feelings – but you hope that people see that this isn’t the answer. I’m hopeful [that Timmermans will be prime minister]. I have met a lot of people who say he would be a suitable leader. You have politics with a small p and politics with a big P and he is a big P politician.” Lisa Westerveld, another MP at the top of the list, said that she had heard many people who do not normally vote have gone to the polls. “I was called by one of our volunteers from our football club, a man from Somalia – and he said that his mother and sister were going to vote for the first time… They feel that the sentiment against people of colour is growing, when they are just part of this society. It was a hopeful moment.” She showed another text message from a homeless young man saying he had heard her in a debate and would vote for her because her “heart had made such an impression on him”. She said: “This was a man who had completely dropped out, who was homeless. It’s a beautiful message.” 7.35pm GMT The latest turnout estimate from 7.45pm local time says it was at 65%, marginally lower than two years ago, when it was at 66%. The polls close in under half an hour from now. 7.33pm GMT Outgoing PM Schoof hopes coalition talks will conclude by August 2026 so he can run Sydney Marathon The outgoing caretaker prime minister and former intelligence chief, Dick Schoof, also cast his vote in The Hague earlier today. He spoke about the enthusiasm for the role and the responsibility he felt when leading the government in the “intense” buildup to the poll and which he will stay at the helm of until the new cabinet is formed, which is likely to take some time, or even some months. He declined to say who he voted for, stressing that it wasn’t a difficult decision for him, and he could pick his candidate “with conviction”. Schoof, an avid runner, said that since he has registered for the Sydney Marathon on 30 August 2026 in the aftermath of the government collapse, he hopes the new administration will be established well before then, enabling him to devote his attention to training and to step away from his official duties. Updated at 7.42pm GMT 7.23pm GMT Anti-migration protest in Den Bosch on voting day With migration and asylum issues dominating the election campaign, some people chose the polling day for staging an anti-immigration demonstration in Den Bosch. In recent weeks, some social media accounts also urged people to fly the Dutch flag on the election day as a sign of protest against the government’s migration policy, media reported. 7.01pm GMT Party leaders cast their votes in Dutch elections – in pictures As is customary for election days, let me bring you some pictures of key party leaders casting their votes, with at least two of them rocking up to the polling stations with their dogs. VVD’s Dilan Yeşilgöz’s dog Moos was apparently very keen to speak to reporters outside the station, to the point of, erm, taking one of their microphone windshields as a toy. Yeşilgöz said on X that Moos was just desperate to urge voters to back her party, but I am not entirely sure if that works from the dog’s point of view. Surely, more duties = fewer walks? PvdA-GroenLinks’s Frans Timmermans also showed up with a dog. Meanwhile, here are more traditional pictures of PVV’s Geert Wilders, D66’s Rob Jetten, and NSC’s Eddy van Hijum. Updated at 7.28pm GMT 6.36pm GMT in Amsterdam Some voters think that this is a referendum on the far right, and that the Dutch could lead the way in showing how a new wave of central politics can provide an alternative. Taking a picture with D66 leader Rob Jetten on Sunday, D66 supporter Henri de Haan told me: “You see nationalism in France, Belgium, Germany, England. Parties that play on these feelings. I think that in the Netherlands we are a bit ahead because we have seen that an extreme right, divisive party, PVV, has exploited those feelings to win votes, they were the largest, they were in government and they have achieved precisely nothing. That is good news: I hope that we have left it behind, and that we will be the first to do so in Europe – to leave behind the negative aspects of that nationalistic sentiment.” 6.03pm GMT Parties make their messages too 'cerebral' while populists go for emotions - opinion in Amsterdam Roy Kramer, author of the book “Why Wilders does win” says language matters and Geert Wilders’ success is due to the way that he communicates. Speaking at the D66 liberal democratic conference earlier in October, he said centrist parties have been losing for the last 25 years not because of the arguments they make but because of how they make them. “The democratic centrist parties have a tendency to make their message very cerebral, whereas populists make it very emotional, exciting, because it touches on taboos with a clear hero – themselves – and a clear enemy: the political elite,” he told the Guardian. He said: “And that type of storytelling, in very simple language that is very accessible, with short words and short sentences, with a large social-media reach, ensures that they just keep winning a lot of elections. They are simply more competitive. Over the last fifty years, political parties have increasingly become a kind of gated community for the highly educated. With the best intentions, they tailor the story to themselves, while two-thirds of the population is not highly educated. This book is not only about liberal parties, but also about socialist parties, or more moderate conservative parties. But I think that many people from the lower middle class and the middle class also have their values. Only, there is a kind of ‘lost in translation’ [situation].” He continued: “What I’m saying is: start with common sense, with the people in the middle. Make the argument from their experiences, from their lives, and don’t make it from the one-third of the population that is higher educated. Because then you lose a lot of people. Not because they don’t agree on the substance, but because they don’t identify with the people saying it and can’t relate to the stories. I’m really worried that the populists are taking over and winning election after election in all of Europe, also in Japan, also in the US. I think we should discuss openly how we can win seats back.” 5.27pm GMT But nationally, the latest figures suggest that the turnout is still lower than at this stage in the previous election, two year ago. Ipsos I&O estimate says 48% of voters cast their votes by 5:55pm, down from 50% in 2023. But de Volksrant is reporting people rushing to vote as they leave work with “long lines” forming at the train stations, so we may still see a big jump there. Voting is open until 9pm local time (8pm London). Updated at 5.30pm GMT 5.13pm GMT Island off north Netherlands sees turnout above 100% in Amsterdam Schiermonnikoog, the small island of fewer than 1,000 residents, already has a turnout exceeding 100%, according to Dutch press. It’s currently at 101%, and that’s due to tourists visiting the island. Hope they don’t miss the last two ferries going back to Lauwersoog on the mainland at 19.30 and 20.15. 5.01pm GMT 'The Netherlands' opportunity to bring back stability' - opinion Armida van Rij, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, has this take on today’s election: “Two years after the last election and a highly unstable coalition, this is the Netherlands’ opportunity to bring back stability to the country. It faces a number of pressuring policy issues: housing shortages, maintaining affordable care and, increasingly, concerns about rule of law in the country. The liberal-populist-far right coalition failed to address any of these challenges, and in some cases exacerbated them. Yet these are the third elections in 5 years’ time and the support for Geert Wilders remains high, making it difficult for other parties to form a majority government without him.” 4.45pm GMT in Amsterdam It’s also striking that many of the migrants – who bear the brunt of everything from finger pointing to normalisation of outright racism – cannot vote. The research says that almost 91% of the adult population is eligible to vote today, down from 94% in 2017. “The reason for this is the rise in immigration: not all migrants have Dutch citizenship,” the paper said. 4.34pm GMT The Dutch statistics agency, Statistics Netherlands (or CBS), produced a handy note on the Dutch electorate taking part in today’s vote, with a striking observation that “the proportion of voters aged 65 years and older is higher than in any previous election.” It’s 28%, up from just 18% thirty years ago. Around a quarter of voters are under 35 too, and that value has not changed much in recent years, it said. But overall, the average eligible voter is now 51.1 years old, up from 49.5 years ten years ago and 45.3 years 30 years ago. We will also see 360,000 first-time voters who recently turned 18, the paper said. 4.09pm GMT This get-out-the-vote effort could play a big role in the final results, as many voters had no still idea who they would vote for as late as last night, according to research. Rem Korteweg, senior fellow at the Dutch Clingendael Institute, noted that “only 26% of the Dutch electorate knew for certain what they would vote on the eve of the election!”. “Lots could still change,” he added. 3.59pm GMT in Amsterdam It’s interesting how parties appeal to people to go to the polls. The first one to land in my inbox was the BBB farmer citizen movement at 12.21. Like a distant relative – who has constantly been reaching out for contact in the past weeks – Wilders was next at 12.46. The Lib dem D66 call to its mailing list to vote dropped at 13.59. And the VVD made a “last call” at 15.15. Let’s see how it influences the final turnout. 3.46pm GMT Dutch Muslims fear rise of far right as general election looms European Community affairs correspondent The drawing depicted two women; a young blonde with a friendly expression and a scowling older woman wearing a headscarf. On top of the image was a nod to this month’s general election in the Netherlands, along with the phrase “The choice is yours.” The social media post, made by the far-right, anti-Muslim politician Geert Wilders, prompted a record 14,000 complaints to the country’s anti-discrimination hotline. “Many of those who called to report the image compared it to Nazi propaganda from the second world war,” the hotline said in a statement, adding that the 19 anti-discrimination agencies associated with the hotline had flagged the post to police, amid concerns that it could be an incitement to hatred. It was a glimpse of how the discourse across the Netherlands has hardened in recent years, as politicians disproportionately target Muslims, asylum-seekers and other minority communities in a bid to drum up votes. As polls suggest that Wilders’ party could again emerge with the most votes, the election on 29 October has been recast as a broader litmus test for the country and its democratic ideals. Related: ‘Open hostility has become normalised’: Dutch Muslims fear rise of far right as general election looms 3.29pm GMT Far-right retains magnetic hold over Dutch politics - opinion The Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, and author of The Far Right Today Whatever the eventual outcome, one thing is already clear: despite the far right’s evident failure in governing the Netherlands, it retains a magnetic hold over the country. Party politics remains fragmented yet dominated by the mainstreaming and normalisation of far-right frames and politicians. Liberal democratic parties devote more energy to fighting each other than the far right. As far as a cordon sanitaire holds, it does not extend to all far-right parties (like JA21) and rejects its behaviour rather than its ideology. These are trends that we see both in the European parliament and in many other European countries. 3.19pm GMT Migration dominated electoral campaign with hardened rhetoric even from moderate parties Jon Henley and Senay Boztas in Amsterdam Migration has once again dominated the campaign, with many moderate parties hardening their rhetoric. Demonstrations have turned violent, including protests outside asylum-seeker hostels and rioting in The Hague. But even if Wilders, who argues that the Netherlands should refuse all asylum requests and use the army to guard its borders if necessary, does finish first, which is not certain – the PVV could lose up to a third of its current 37 seats – he is likely to be shut out of government. The outgoing PVV-dominated government is seen by voters as one of the most ineffective in recent Dutch history, failing to deliver on its key promise of introducing Europe’s toughest immigration regime and tackle a dire national housing shortage. The parties forecast to make the biggest gains – the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), which polls show may surge to 22 seats from five, and liberal-progressive D66, on track for 23 from nine – are those that have called loudest for a return to “responsible” government. Related: As Netherlands goes to the polls again, Geert Wilders faces isolation Updated at 3.30pm GMT 3.03pm GMT The Anne Frank House is not the only unusual place where voters can cast their votes today. The Dutch Vogue has a list of 11 special locations, including a children’s zoo in Amsterdam, the marine museum in Rotterdam, the miniature park in The Hague. And yes, of course you can vote at a windmill … … or, more precisely, inside their shop. 2.53pm GMT 'Fight against fascism begins with queue,' voters at Anne Frank House say in Amsterdam “The fight against fascism begins with a queue,” said voters at the Anne Frank House polling booth in Amsterdam. A queue snaked around the corner – not just to visit the museum where the Jewish diarist hit from the Nazi occupiers, but to vote in the current Dutch election (the get free entry to the museum afterwards!). “I’m voting here against fascism,” said one voter, drily. Some said they did not dare to hope for too much change. “I think it’s very important to vote,” said a women who gave her name as Désirée. “There is a lot that has gone wrong in recent years… but as things look now, the biggest party [then] is still the biggest party, one that has given very little in the past and undermines the rule of law.” Mark de Bruin, 54, a lifelong Amsterdammer, was standing in the queue to vote and visit the museum for the first time. “The last few years have been a total mess – to my great sorrow,” he said. “If I see the current party leaders, there’s far more expertise there than we’ve had recently in government. I think [the PVV] will be smaller than in previous elections, because a lot of people see that they simply can’t govern. But it will certainly remain a factor in the opposition – although I’d rather that they were on the bench for two years. They will torpedo everything that comes along.” Annemar Renzema, 24, from Friesland and a student in Amsterdam, said it was very important to vote, although she did not want to think too much about the result. “Thinking about it makes me feel a bit unsettled,” she said. “We’ll see. I’m not happy [with the recent direction of politics] and that’s why I think it’s so important to make my voice heard. “I’m 24 and I want to have a chance to buy a house; I’m a student and for me it’s important that the interest on student loans goes down. And more than that, it’s about women’s rights and social rights. I just hope that things will go a little better with us as human beings, and with each other.” 2.35pm GMT in Amsterdam The voting paper is as big as a bath towel – I’m amazed more people don’t get it wrong. 2.32pm GMT Speaking of “blank” votes and protests, you will be pleased to know that the electoral authority has provided a very detailed handbook on what will count as a “blanco,” and what will make the vote valid or invalid. 19,655 voters cast “blanco” votes in 2023 (0.19%), just below 22,822 (0.22%) who casted invalid votes. So, if you want to make sure the vote is counted as a blank, it literally has to be, well, blank. If you write anything on it, even if it’s ‘I want this to be a blank vote,’ it moves it to the invalid category. You can, however, draw a smiley face without invalidating the ballot, but you just need to make sure there isn’t anything there that identifies you personally (so don’t sign it!). This and all other – some very amusing – scenarios are covered here. Updated at 2.36pm GMT 2.22pm GMT in Amsterdam There was an interesting interview with a Dutch taxi driver on NPO Radio 1 earlier, who characterised his job as “modern slavery,” working all hours to make ends meet, and has totally lost faith in democracy. He will vote ‘blanco’ – an empty ballot as a sign of protest. “They never asked us if we wanted a global economy. It’s a moving train and it doesn’t stop… Sinterklaas [St Nicholas] doesn’t exist but nor does democracy,” he said. 1.55pm GMT Lunchtime turnout marginally lower than in 2023 Early turnout estimates by Ipsos-I&O are so far marginally lower than in previous years, suggesting 27% of the electorate voted by 1.45pm local time. It was 28% in 2023, and 33% in 2017. 2021 was a slightly different story, as the polls were open for three days, during the Covid pandemic. We will be keeping an eye on that headline turnout figure later – it was 77.7% in 2023. 1.40pm GMT in Amsterdam Dutch broadcaster NOS ran a story earlier today telling people “best chances of dry voting are in the morning.” Why is it relevant? PVV voters, for example, don’t always bother to vote and have little faith in democracy in general. Bart Koenen, senior researcher at Verian, working on political polling thinks a higher turnout could benefit the PVV. But, he added: “There are a lot of PVV voters who, in reality, when it’s bad weather on Wednesday, look outside and say: ‘Oh no, I’m not going to vote.’” For what it’s worth, it’s now early afternoon, and the skies are darkening a bit … 1.34pm GMT So what could the new government look like? Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what coalitions are actually possible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely, second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government). After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. It can take months. Multiple options look plausible, most involving a mix of parties from the centre-left and moderate right. The most likely, according to the CoalitionChecker website, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and one or more smaller parties potentially including JA21. 1.28pm GMT Key players and main issues in the Dutch snap poll If you fancy a quick reminder of who are the key players and what’s at stake in the Dutch election, we have got this helpful explainer for you, by our Europe correspondent Jon Henley. The early legislative elections were triggered by the collapse in June of the 11-month-old government after the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders pulled his Freedom party (PVV) out of an already fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition. The PVV had finished a shock first in the last election in late 2023 and after more than six months of talks formed a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), centrist New Social Contract (NSC) and liberal-conservative VVD. Wilders’ partners, however, considered him too toxic for the job of prime minister, which went to a former intelligence chief, Dick Schoof. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has lived under police protection for two decades, resorted to sniping from the sidelines. He pulled the plug on 3 June after the partners refused to adopt a radical 10-point anti-immigration plan that included enlisting the army to patrol the borders, turning back all asylum seekers, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syrian refugees. While support for the PVV has dipped, polls suggest the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, the main Dutch political formations have all ruled out entering into a formal coalition with Wilders. At least 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament but none to win more than about 20% of the vote. As ever, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months. There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century. Related: The Dutch election: key players and main issues in the snap poll 1.22pm GMT The Dutch vote is under way Voting is under way in a knife-edge parliamentary election in the Netherlands that polls suggest could again be won by the far-right Freedom party (PVV) of Geert Wilders, although there is little chance of it being part of the next government. Final polling averages suggest Wilders’ party could win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, well down on the 37 it captured in the 2023 elections. Even if it does finish first, all major parties have ruled out going into government with the anti-immigration firebrand. Related: Voting opens in Netherlands as narrowing polls suggest second Geert Wilders win We will be following closely the polling day in the Netherlands, with the Guardian’s Senay Boztas on the ground in Amsterdam, and will bring you the exit poll later tonight, as well as first reactions to the vote. It’s Wednesday, 29 October 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.