Nobel peace prize 2025: Norway fears repercussions if Donald Trump not honoured in ceremony

9.12am BST Who has been nominated this year? We don’t know for sure – the Norwegian Nobel Committee keeps the candidates’ names secret for 50 years, meaning there is no certainty and it’s all, frankly, guesswork. However, there is a workaround. We have an idea of a few people who are likely to be on the list when nominators — who are eligible individuals like members of government or university professors — choose to publicise their submissions. This year, those include: Anti-occupation activists Issa Amro from Hebron, Palestine and Jeff Halper from Jerusalem.(Nominated by Norwegian MP Ingrid Fiskaa) Donald Trump. The US president has said several times that he deserves the prize, and is openly envious that four of his predecessors, including Barack Obama, who have received the award.(Nominated by US Republican Representative Claudia Tenney) Chow Hang-tung. A prominent barrister and human rights activist who is jailed in Hong Kong.(Nominated by Norwegian MP Guri Melby) 8.59am BST Welcome to the Nobel peace prize blog Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the 2025 Nobel peace prize. The winner is due to be announced in Oslo in an hour’s time. Prepare yourself for surprises – winners are often unexpected, and the shortlist of nominees is not public. If the Norwegian Nobel Committee seeks to send a message, it can also be controversial. The committee has on several occasions sought to celebrate rights activists and shame oppressive regimes. With major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and fears over a time of breakdown in international order, the committee’s choice today could be interpreted as a pointed signal on key failings from world leaders. Last year, the Japanese atomic bomb survivor movement Nihon Hidankyo received the award. This year, the committee has a total of 338 candidates to choose from (244 of which are individuals and 94 organisations). Related: Nobel peace prize awarded to Japanese atomic bomb survivors’ group Other past winners include presidents, campaigners and organisations, from US President Jimmy Carter to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, from Nelson Mandela to the late Chinese rights activist Liu Xiaobo, from the EU to International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. Norwegian politicians have been steeling themselves for potential repercussions to US-Norway relations if it is not awarded to Donald Trump. The Norwegian Nobel Committee pointedly said on Thursday that it had reached a decision about who would be named 2025 peace prize laureate on Monday, several days before Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire under the US president’s Gaza plan. Taking into account the timeframe and the composition of the independent five-person committee, most Nobel experts and Norwegian observers believe it is highly unlikely that Trump will be awarded the prize, leading to fears in the country over how he will react to being overlooked so publicly. Follow us here for all the buildup, the announcement, and, of course, the reaction.