Oil price rises after Opec+ pauses oil output hikes amid glut fears – business live

8.47am GMT Shares in Italian drinks maker Campari have fallen almost 3% tthis morning after Italian tax police seized €1.29bn worth of shares in the company, held by its controlling shareholder, following a tax evasion investigation. On Friday police said they were seizing Campari shares held by its controlling company Lagfin after a probe found €5.3bn of allegedly undeclared capital gains. Prosecutors claim Lagfin failed to pay a tax levied on firms that transfer their fiscal residence abroad, after it absorbed an Italian subsidiary that held Campari’s controlling stake. Prosecutors say the reorganization effectively shifted the group’s management and tax base overseas, triggering the disputed liability. Lagfin denied any wrongdoing. 8.28am GMT Student accommodation provider Empiric has reported a drop in bookings from students from China. Empiric Student Property, which is currently being taken over by rival Unite Group, told shareholders this morning that its occupancy levels have dropped to 89% at the start of this academic year, compared with 95% in October 2024. Unless current conditions change, delivering the company’s occupancy target for this academic year will be “challenging”, it says. Duncan Garrood, chief executive officer of Empiric, explains: “The booking cycle for academic year 2025/26 has seen an increase in reservations from UK students and a reduction in the number of Chinese students staying with us, potentially the result of geopolitical events. Rental growth remains in line with guidance and we are well positioned for January sales activity. All the while, we have continued to improve the quality of the portfolio whilst delivering on capital deployment commitments.” Updated at 8.28am GMT 8.21am GMT The UK stock market has started the new week slightly stronger, with the FTSE 100 index up 12 points or 0.13% at 9730 points. Legal & General (+1.4%) and Standard Chartered (+1.6%) are leading the risers, along with BP (now +1.5%). 8.14am GMT Shares in oil giants are rising in early trading in London, after Opec+ paused its plans to hike output in the early months of 2026. BP are among the top risers on the FTSE 100 share index, up 1.75%, after announcing the sale of its non-controlling stakes in the Permian and Eagle Ford midstream assets of its U.S. onshore oil and gas business for $1.5bn. Shell’s shares are up 1%, supported by target price upgrades from Berenberg and Citigroup this morning. 8.07am GMT The United Arab Emirates’ energy minister has predicted that growth in AI data centres will lift oil demand in 2026. Asked about the possibility of an oil glut in 2026, at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Suhail al-Mazrouei repled: “I think all of what we are seeing is more demand.” Mazrouei pointed out that energy investments are needed because artificial intelligence and data centres require more power, pointing out (via Reuters): “There is a requirement for more energy ... and we need to make sure the environment for investment is allowed to do that. “If we’re not achieving a balance between the price and what you would require, we will not have (a sufficient flow of investment) to do it.” Updated at 8.08am GMT 7.53am GMT October was another strong month for markets, thanks to the US-China trade truce, strong economic data and decent earnings releases. Those positive factors outweighed concerns around private credit and fears of a potential AI bubble, explain Deutsche Bank’ analysts Henry Allen and Jim Reid. They point out that the S&P 500 share index posted a 6th consecutive monthly gain for the first time since 2021, adding: Meanwhile in Japan, the Nikkei had its strongest month since October 1990 as the new government led by Sanae Takaichi came to office. In fixed income, sovereign bonds advanced despite the Fed’s hawkishness towards month end, with the 10yr Treasury yield (-7.3bps) seeing its lowest monthly close in over a year, at 4.08%. And finally, precious metals had another good month, with gold moving above $4,000/oz for the first time, whilst silver posted a 6th consecutive monthly gain for the first time since 1980. 7.32am GMT Asia-Pacific stock markets are climbing this morning, amid ongoing relief over the US-China trade deal agreed last week. China’s CSI 300 index has gained 0.3%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng index is up 1%, and South Korea’s KOSPI 200 has surged 3.4%. The White House released a fact sheet on Saturday with more details about the trade agreement which was agreed between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in South Korea. It says China has agreed to: Halt the flow of precursors used to make fentanyl into the United States. Effectively eliminate China’s current and proposed export controls on rare earth elements and other critical minerals. End Chinese retaliation against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers and other major U.S. companies. Open China’s market to U.S. soybeans and other agricultural exports. 7.24am GMT Tax rises and drop in investment predicted to limit UK growth The prospect of looming tax rises and a fall in business investment will restrict the UK’s economic growth rate next year to less than 1%, according to a health check of the economy by a leading consultancy this morning. With less than four weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, the EY Item Club has downgraded Britain’s growth for next year, indicating that the economy will continue to expand at a sluggish pace, limiting tax receipts and the chancellor’s financial room for manoeuvre. Related: Tax rises and drop in investment predicted to limit UK growth 7.16am GMT Morgan Stanley raises oil price forecast after OPEC+ pauses output hikes Morgan Stanley has raised its near-term forecast for crude oil prices following OPEC+’s decision to pause production hikes. The Wall Street bank said on Monday it was lifting its Brent estimate to $60 a barrel for the first half of 2026, up from $57.50, Bloomberg reports, after Opec and its allies said yesterday they plan to halt output increases in the first quarter of next year. Morgan Stanley analysts explained: “Even if the OPEC announcement does not change the mechanics of our production outlook, it does send an important signal. “With OPEC involvement, volatility is reduced.” Updated at 7.16am GMT 7.09am GMT Introduction: Opec+ to pause oil output rises next year Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. The oil price is rising after the world’s biggest oil producers agreed to pause their planned oil production hikes in the first months of next year, to assuage fears that the global market may become oversupplied with crude. At a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies on Sunday, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, energy ministers agreed to nudge the cartel’s exports up by 137,000 barrels a day in December, before halting any further rises in January, February and March. The decision marks a change of policy from the eight-strong group which has increased its production quota by almost 3m barrels of crude a day over the past year. The group has opted to slow its growth in recent months to avoid a collapse in oil prices amid growing concerns of a market oversupply. “OPEC+ is blinking — but it’s a calculated blink,” said Jorge Leon from Rystad, adding: “Sanctions on Russian producers have injected a new layer of uncertainty into supply forecasts, and the group knows that overproducing now could backfire later.” This morning, Brent crude has gained 0.75% to $65.25 per barrel, with US crude up a similar amount to $61.44 per barrel. Oil prices fell to a five-month low of about $60 a barrel on 20 October on concerns that a glut was building in the market - but prices then recovered following a raft of sanctions against Russian oil barrels and a thawing of trade relations between the US and China. The agenda 9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for October 9.30am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI for October 9.30am GMT: UK public sector productivity statistics 2.45pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI for October