Remember, Penn State Is Hiring For Ceiling, Not Consistency

The Penn State coaching hotboard took an alleged hit earlier Thursday when Nebraska coach Matt Rhule agreed to an extension to stay in Lincoln for the (very) near future. With this news, it would appear the Nittany Lions will have to pivot to a different candidate, as Rhule was rumored to be near the top of the wishlist in Happy Valley. In addition to this, I've seen some concerning rhetoric on social media about how Penn State will inevitably hire a coach that is less accomplished and less successful than James Franklin. That's very true, but it's also not necessarily a bad thing. If there is one thing you need to remember about the Penn State coaching search, and any coaching search for a program of this elevated tier, it is this: these schools are hiring for ceiling potential, not consistency. Yes, Penn State will hire someone less "accomplished" than James Franklin. That is almost a given. Franklin is 128-60 as a head coach, and it will be hard for anyone available to match those win totals in sheer volume. But that isn't the point. Penn State fired James Franklin because they reached their ceiling with him as their head coach, and their ceiling was 2nd or 3rd in the Big Ten and roughly ten wins a season. Many programs would commit murder for consistency like that, but that consistency becomes maddening when you realize that there's a cap on your success as a program. A candidate like Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein represents a moon shot for any school willing to take a chance on him. He could be the next Kirby Smart, or he could flame out and be on the chopping block in three years. And that's fine. Penn State would be infinitely less tortured if James Franklin had his 3-3 start a couple of years ago, and they took a chance on someone like Dan Lanning or Marcus Freeman. You shouldn't fear the coaching carousel, rather, you should embrace it. Look at the Tennessee Volunteers. They were laughingstocks of the college football world for hiring and firing different incompetent coaches for years until they landed a moon shot like Josh Heupel, and now they are a perennial playoff contender. Ride that merry-go-round until you get your dream candidate.