Russia’s gas gamble backfires as Trump’s energy vision reshapes Europe

In 2018, President Donald Trump warned Germany would become "totally dependent" on Russia for its energy needs as he praised a Baltic pipeline that would reduce dependence on Kremlin oil. (Credit: C-SPAN, Sept. 25, 2018)

When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas would leave them "hostage to Moscow," the remark was met with skepticism — and even laughter.

Three years into his second term, those same leaders are now scrambling to secure long-term contracts for U.S. liquefied natural gas as Russia’s once-dominant grip on Europe’s energy market unravels exactly as Trump predicted.

Russia’s decision to choke off gas deliveries in 2022 — an attempt to fracture Western unity and pressure Europe into abandoning Ukraine — has had the opposite effect. Its share of European Union gas imports has fallen from 45% in 2021 to under 10% today. U.S. gas now accounts for nearly 57% of Europe’s total imports, compared to roughly one-third before the war.

The cutoff accelerated a historic realignment in global energy, with U.S. LNG producers rushing to fill the void. The shift has not only blunted one of Vladimir Putin’s most powerful geopolitical weapons but also fueled an American export boom that is binding Europe more tightly to Washington than at any point since the Cold War.

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New corridors linking LNG terminals in Poland, Greece, and Croatia are channeling U.S. and Qatari gas deep into the continent.  (Filip Klimaszewski/Reuters)

The transformation is most visible in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries once reliant on Russian pipelines are turning west. New corridors linking LNG terminals in Poland, Greece and Croatia are channeling U.S. and Qatari gas deep into the continent. Nations such as Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia — long vulnerable to supply cutoffs — are forging contracts that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

"Central and Eastern Europe have been the most vulnerable because these were the countries that had been historically almost 100% dependent on Russian gas," said Aura Sabadus, a senior energy analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. "Now we see companies in those markets securing U.S. LNG through new routes, particularly via Poland and southern corridors through Greece."

In Athens last week, executives from major U.S. producers met with regional buyers from Greece, Poland and Ukraine to finalize new supply deals — the clearest sign yet that Europe’s energy axis has shifted. American gas now flows through the same infrastructure that once carried Russian fuel, and the geopolitical balance has flipped with it.