The Breakdown | South American rugby success stories propel World Cup qualifying

While many fans in the UK ponder the early-season fortunes of their clubs, or perhaps debate selection for the imminent autumn internationals, the qualifying battle for the 2027 Rugby World Cup rages on. Chile sealed their second consecutive appearance at the tournament with a sensational playoff win against Samoa last month, leaving a single spot to be won for Australia in two years’ time. On Saturday Paraguay stunned Brazil 39-19 in the first leg of their playoff. The second leg takes place this Saturday in Jacareí, near São Paulo, as Brazil’s men attempt to emulate the women and qualify for the first time. Related: Luther Burrell claims speaking out about racist abuse ended rugby career Whether Paraguay complete a surprise aggregate win, or Brazil recover in the wake of the head coach Emiliano Caffera’s recent dismissal, the lineup for next month’s Dubai qualification tournament will then be locked in. Namibia, Belgium and Samoa are already confirmed for the Middle Eastern showdown from 8-18 November. There are plenty of moving parts and subplots. Hong Kong China sealed their first qualification after beating Korea 70-22 in July, while Zimbabwe will return to rugby union’s most prestigious stage for the first time since 1991 by virtue of winning the Rugby Africa Cup. The knock-on effect of Chile’s playoff success, meanwhile, is that Los Condores will play Italy for the first time next month in the autumn internationals, due to Samoa’s pressing appointment in Dubai. Alan Gilpin, the World Rugby chief executive, called Chile an “exciting and fast-emerging force” in announcing the fixture in Genoa. As the Prem’s marketing team continues its quest for bums on seats, Chilean rugby is buoyant. A capacity crowd of more than 20,000 witnessed the playoff win in Viña del Mar and the head coach, Pablo Lemoine, has had the team on an upward trajectory since taking over in 2018. The 50-year-old former Uruguay international prop has been making an impact for decades: signed by Bob Dwyer for Bristol in the late 90s, he ran straight through Danny Grewcock to score against England at the 2003 Rugby World Cup. His influence as national coach has been similarly powerful: Chile have climbed to 17th, their highest-ever position. In France two years ago they were beaten four times, conceding 215 points and scoring 27, including a 71-0 defeat against England and five-try Henry Arundell. Still they proudly took the positives, and after the draw for 2027 in Sydney on 3 December Lemoine can start planning in earnest. They hosted Scotland last year, defeated 52-11 in front of 24,000 fans, and although they were beaten across two legs by Uruguay in the initial 2027 playoff, they won 21-18 away in Montevideo. Samoa, meanwhile, have not missed a Rugby World Cup since 1991, but are languishing in 16th place in the men’s rankings. They were winless in this year’s Pacific Nations Cup, leading to playoff misery against Chile, and the obligation to meet the likes of Belgium heaps indignity on a proud rugby nation. The former fly-half Tusi Pisi was appointed head coach in April and the towering Saracens lock Theo McFarland is captain, but he was injured for most of the Pacific Nations Cup, and remains sidelined for his club. Beyond the fortunes of individual nations it is worth reflecting on how different the expanded competition will look in 2027. For the first time there will be a round of 16, with six pools of four rather than four pools of five. Pool-stage jeopardy is significantly reduced because the four best third-placed teams will qualify. The hosts, Australia, are now ranked seventh in the world, meaning they would miss out on top seeding and meet one of South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, France, England or Argentina in Pool A. They could climb into the top six during a busy November, however: England, Italy, Ireland and France are their opponents, with a fixture against Japan in Tokyo also on 25 October. Wales, meanwhile, are teetering in 12th, with Japan below, and the implications of dropping to 13th and into pot three are potentially severe. Another new dimension for 2027 is the presence of five teams from the Americas: Argentina, Uruguay, USA, Canada and the aforementioned Chile: Paraguay or Brazil would make it six. From World Rugby’s perspective American interest is no bad thing, with the 2031 tournament to be hosted by the USA, and the process to select a host for 2035 was launched by the global governing body last month. First things first, though. The second instalment of Brazil v Paraguay sets up a four-way Dubai shootout, along with a potential rankings shake-up across Europe in November. No matter how things pan out, Chile’s qualification for a second Rugby World Cup has already made them a resounding success story. Marcus still a contender in battle of Smiths Long throws and set-pieces are in vogue in the Premier League and clever tactical kicking was one of the themes of the Prem weekend. Marcus Smith, available for selection again post-British & Irish Lions tour, steered Harlequins to victory against Saracens with a memerising performance featuring all manner of intelligent methods of putting boot to ball. While aimless, unadventurous territorial kicking rightly gets a bad press, the rare ability of players such as Marcus Smith, Fin Smith and George Ford kicking from hand is often enough to get supporters on their feet. Northampton’s Fin Smith was the coming man last season, his unfussy and perceptive distribution demanding that Steve Borthwick pick him at No 10 for England. But Marcus Smith’s accomplished performance at the Stoop on Sunday demonstrates he is certainly up for a fight when it comes to England’s first-choice fly-half. Memory lane Georgia 12-24 Uruguay, Rugby World Cup 2003. Uruguay signed off from the 2003 World Cup with a 111-13 trouncing by the eventual champions, England, but they had at least tasted success against Georgia in their previous match. Tries from Alfonso Cardoso, Diego Lamelas and Nicolás Brignoni in Sydney secured the country’s second-ever win at a World Cup, following their inaugural victory against Spain in Galashiels four years earlier. A penalty and conversion by Juan Menchaca and two conversions by Diego Aguirre completed the scoring – and they would wait another 16 years for a next tournament win, a stunning 30-27 win against Fiji in Japan. Still want more? It was another busy weekend in the Prem: Sale piled more misery on Newcastle, Northampton got the better of rivals Leicester and Harlequins enjoyed a derby victory of their own over Saracens. The former England player Luther Burrell has alleged he was effectively forced to retire after he spoke out about racist abuse he suffered from teammates. The RFU has proposed using “anti-pee paint” that would leave public offenders “covered in their own urine”, to ease residents’ fears over plans to increase the number of music concerts staged at Twickenham. And the reviews are in for Exe Men.