Articles by Contributor,Sheldon Cooper,Trefis Team

Technology

Will Comcast Rally On Q3 Earnings?

Photo Illustration by Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. Revenue is predicted to decrease by around 4% to $30.7 billion, according to consensus estimates, while earnings are anticipated to be about $1.10 per share. Comcast's Internet segment has encountered challenges, as wired broadband competitors face escalating market saturation and substantial competitive pressure from alternative internet options, particularly 5G Fixed Wireless Access offered by mobile network operators. In Q2, the company experienced a loss of 226,000 total broadband customers, most of whom were from its residential sector. Nevertheless, Comcast has recently adjusted its broadband strategy to emphasize more transparent, no-surprise pricing and also to bundle wired and wireless services, along with improvements to its network. The company possesses $111 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue for the past twelve months amounted to $124 billion, and it was operationally profitable, yielding $23 billion in operating income and $23 billion in net earnings. While much will hinge on how results measure up against consensus and expectations, grasping historical trends might enhance your chances if you are an event-driven trader. There are two approaches to accomplish that: understanding the historical probabilities and positioning oneself before the earnings announcement, or analyzing the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings and positioning accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. That said, if you are looking for upside with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – it has outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Comcast's Historical Chances of Positive Post-Earnings Return A few observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: MORE FOR YOU There have been 20 earnings data points recorded over the past five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 55% of the time. Significantly, this percentage rises to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5. The median of the 11 positive returns = 3.4%, and the median of the 9 negative returns = -5.8% Additional information for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is outlined along with the statistics in the table below. 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not beneficial if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, find a pairing that exhibits the highest correlation, and execute the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the greatest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), producing strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire upside with a more stable path than an individual stock like Comcast, contemplate the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and recorded >105% returns since its inception. Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions