Articles by Giles Parkinson

Technology

Rooftop PV output breaks through 5 GW for first time in Australia’s sunniest and most coal dependent ... - Renew Economy

Solar PV mounted on the rooftops of homes and businesses in Queensland, the Sunshine state, broke through the 5 gigawatt barrier on Tuesday to a new record high of 5.05 GW, or more than 52 per cent of state demand even on a day that set new temperature records. It was the second time in two days that the record was broken – befitting in a spring heatwave – and reflects the rapidly changing nature of the grid in Queensland, and around the country. A year ago, the record was 4.6 GW, according to GPE NEMlog, so growth of 10 per cent in just 12 months. And the latest data from the Clean Energy Regulator suggests that growth is not slowing down, with around one third of new rooftop installations in the state replacing smaller or cyclone damaged systems. Rooftop PV has already hit a record share of 57 per cent of electricity demand in Queensland, and the LNP government proudly boasts in its new energy roadmap that the state has more rooftop solar than anyone else – 7 GW to be precise – and rapidly catching up to coal, which currently sits at 8 GW. In a few years, solar PV will be overtake coal as its capacity grows to at around 11 GW by the end of the decade, according to the roadmap, and presumably will add another 4 GW at least in the five years that follow. The state’s biggest coal generator at Gladstone is to be retired in 2029, to make way for large scale wind, solar and solar battery hybrids to power Rio Tinto’s smelters and refineries, the biggest consumers in the state. That leaves just over 6 GW of coal capacity in the grid in 2030, and the LNP somehow expects there to be still 5.8 GW of coal capacity in 2035 – even with around 15 GW of rooftop solar in a grid with a maximum demand of just under 12 GW (although that may grow). It does you make you wonder if the state government decision makers have thought this through carefully, given that its state-owned generators like Stanwell have been warning – since about 2012 – that rooftop solar will be the death of their coal fired generators and the very concept of baseload. The LNP declares that its coal fired power stations will be “operating for decades”, regardless of any climate impacts, and seemingly oblivious to the engineering and economic challenges of dancing around rooftop solar, which it assumes will curb demand for large scale wind and solar only. In NSW, the state’s biggest grid, the remaining coal fired power generators are learning how to dance around rooftop PV, dialling down their output to just 20 per cent of their rated capacity – a level thought impossible until recently – or even switching them off entirely for short periods in a process known as “two-shifting.” The NSW coal generator owners may well be trying to eke as much profit out of their existing coal generators while they can – and their effective buyers strike on new large scale wind and solar helps them do that – but they are not kidding themselves that this ageing kit can continue running much longer. Queensland, though, seems to be in a state of delusion about what it can achieve as the dynamic of the grid change dramatically. With 15 GW in its grid, rooftop solar will be capable of meeting all the state’s demand on its own, as already occurs in South Australia. Quite how the LNP thinks baseload is tenable in this scenario is not clear – the South Australians have already moved beyond baseload to storage and flexibility capacity – it’s a matter of economics, engineering, emissions and keeping the lights on. The Queensland LNP says it wants to keep coal running and has effectively said no to new large scale wind and solar, apart from those projects already under construction, contracted by Rio Tinto or underwritten by the federal government’s Capacity Investment Scheme. It is focusing on gas – and has already written a supply contract with a company controlled by Australia’s richest renewable energy critic, Gina Rinehart, for a gas supply for a new 400 MW peaking facility. This is unlikely to play out well for consumers, or for the grid. As rooftop solar output increases, even with the rapid uptake of household batteries, that will create an ever bigger solar duck and a bigger challenge for the coal fired generators. Large battery storage will help, and it is no coincidence that many of the big batteries being built in Queensland are located right next to the ageing coal generators they will ultimately help replace, but will likely be used to nurse them through the midday hours. The planned focus on peaking gas generators to provide the flexibility and fill in the gaps simply means that the state will be at increased risk of sudden thermal breakdowns, and at the mercy of gas, which all studies show influences the level of wholesale prices in Australia’s grid. The Queensland grid currently has the heaviest dependent on coal – and in most places in the world – with a share of 65 per cent over the last 12 months. Its share of renewables trails the country at a modest 32 per cent. The state was to hit 50 per cent renewables by 2030 and 80 per cent by 2035, but according to the Queensland Conservation Council, is now on track to reach just 54 per cent renewables by 2035. That will be a bad outcome for emissions, and almost certainly a catastrophic outcome for grid reliability and electricity prices. Don’t blame Queenslanders though – they are continuing to take up the only sensible option for them, install more rooftop PV, and a battery if you can. Meanwhile, wind, solar and storage developers are largely relying on the assumption that the energy roadmap is a whole lot of political nonsense, and that sooner or later the government will have to come running to them to build facilities.

Technology

South Australia opens tender for eight-hour batteries and peaking gas to support push to 100 pct renewables - Renew Economy

South Australia, the world’s most advanced renewable grid, has formally opened a new tender designed to attract long duration big batteries and flexible gas generators to boost its grid resilience as it heads towards the official government target of 100 per cent net renewables. The state is seeking around 700 megawatts (MW) in a tender called the Firm Energy Reliability Mechanism (The FERM), and energy minister Tom Koutsantonis says he expects a mix of battery storage and gas turbines. South Australia, which currently sources a world-leading 75 per cent of its annual electricity demand from wind and solar alone, and aims to reach 100 per cent “net” renewables by the end of 2027. It has a large and growing fleet of big battery projects, having installed the world’s very first large scale battery at Hornsdale in 2017, with eight now in operation and another dozen under construction, commissioning, or already contracted. Most of these batteries have around two hours of storage, with some of the most recent projects proposing four hours of storage. The state now wants to use this tender double that storage capacity to reach further into the evening peaks. It is also seeking more gas turbines because those built decades ago to back up its former fleet of coal fired power generators are now ageing and in need of replacement. “The Malinauskas Government recognises the importance of ensuring secure, reliable and resilient electricity supply for South Australia, at least cost to consumers,” Koutsantonis said in a statement. “All around the world, fossil fuel generators are exiting electricity grids, and these are commercial realities we have been preparing for. “South Australia was one of the first jurisdictions in the world to identify the opportunity early to harness our abundant natural resources to get ahead of these realities. “Now we are again looking to the future with an innovative energy policy that creates certainty for both consumers and generators.” The scheme will write contracts with eligible existing and new long-duration firm capacity power generators, effectively underwriting a portion of their revenue to create financial certainty for market proponents outside of sporadic and infrequent high price events. The government says that the availability of this firming generation will be critical for maintaining the reliability of SA’s electricity system. South Australia recently announced an contract with AGL to keep open two units at Torrens B because of delays in the completion of the Project EnergyConnect transmission link to NSW – a project that Koutsantonis is not a big fan of. The details of the contract have not been released. Koutsantonis says the FERM scheme will help protect South Australian consumers against potential National Energy Market-wide price and reliability risks in future years as coal-fired power stations in NSW and Victoria are retired. “Long-duration dispatchable capacity remains vital to system stability, particularly during periods of peak demand,” he said. “This call for tenders seeks to attract a combination of storage and generation projects that support system security and reliability while helping put downward pressure on wholesale prices.” Bids close for the tender on November 28, with the winners to be announced in March or April next year. See Renew Economy’s Big Battery Storage Map of Australia for more information.

Technology

Death of baseload: World’s biggest isolated grid is reaching 84 pct wind and solar almost daily - Renew Economy

Western Australia continues to defy conventional wisdom about the running of electricity grids, reaching levels of 84 per cent penetration of wind and solar on almost a daily basis. Such percentages are not uncommon in other parts of Australia – South Australia, for instance, reaches 100 per cent renewables (as a share of grid demand) on almost a daily basis, and has hit a peak of more than 150 per cent renewables. But that’s because most state grids are able to export surplus capacity. What makes W.A. unique is that it hosts the world’s biggest isolated electricity grid, with no connections to other states or other countries. That makes its main grid – known as the South-West Interconnected System (SWIS) – wholly reliant on its own resources to manage the variability of wind and solar, and to prepare for the planned closure of the last of the state’s coal fired power generator by the end of the decade. The transition has already begun in earnest: The state has commissioned three big batteries in the SWIS, including the country’s biggest at Collie (560 MW and 2,240 MWh) and with another 500 MW, 2,000 MWh battery in the same city also working through grid permissions. It has also commissioned the country’s first large scale solar-battery hybrid, at Cunderdin in the wheat belt, which is regularly feeding solar power into the grid in the evenings, and occasionally through the night. Another eight big battery projects are under construction, or have been awarded underwriting agreements through state and federal tenders, although one of them has hit a major road hump and is suing its sacked contractors for missing equipment. The SWIS – which has maximum demand of more than 4 GW – has other challenges too. It doesn’t have any pumped hydro – the common fall back for both fossil fuel baseload plants and renewables – so it is entirely dependent on battery storage, demand management and flexible gas to fill in the gaps. Over the past week there has been a lot of discussion on LinkedIn and elsewhere about the consistently high penetration of wind and solar, mostly driven by the influence of rooftop PV in the middle of the day. Jai Thomas, the co-ordinator energy within the W.A. government, says that any time of running more than 80 per cent renewable energy during the day is significant, given that the SWIS is its own closed system. “We are down to running about 400 MW of thermal generation only in these periods,” he says. “Critically, we also charge Australia’s largest battery during those periods for discharge at evening peak. The extremely high renewable periods show what is possible as we continue to build from the average 40 per cent renewables and storage that meet electricity demand in the SWIS currently.” Ray Wills, an energy expert who helped lead the early development of the Cunderdin solar hybrid, reckoned that the state hit a new peak of 87.5 per cent renewables at 11.30am on Saturday, local time. Thomas is not so sure about that record, pointing out to the differences in calculating rooftop PV consumption in various data sources. Officially, he says, the record as recognised by the market operator stands at 85.1 per cent.. Still, even if not a record, it still points to the radical transformation of the state’s grid in recent times. Consider this graph below provided by Wills. It now highlights power “below the line”. i.e. charging into batteries, with the likes of Collie specifically contracted to soak up excess rooftop solar in the middle of the day and feed it into the grid in the evening. At times, the share of power fed into the grid from big batteries (marked in red) hits more than 20 per cent. And that will increase over time. Neoen’s Collie battery alone can account for 20 per cent of average grid demand. Wills says higher levels of renewables penetration are almost certain to occur in November and even December, with excellent conditions for wind and solar and relatively low demand, as least until air-cons are switched on in earnest as the summer heat takes hold. W.A., however, still has challenges in ensuring enough new wind and solar is built to provide the bulk energy needed to replace coal, and last month rolled out a proposed new transmission plant to provide the grid infrastructure to host new projects. In Australia’s main grid, known as the National Electricity Market, and covering NSW, Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, the highest penetration of renewables on a 30-minute trading period reached 78.6 per cent on Saturday, October 11, according to AEMO. On a five-minute trading basis, the new peak has been set at 79.8 per cent around the same time, according GPE NEMLog. And, as mentioned above, individual states have reached much higher levels of penetration. AEMO has said it is looking to accommodate up to 100 per cent instanteneous renewables as early as late 2025, although this timeline looks like to slip as it works on the engineering challenges, which including making sure there is enough essential grid services such as system strength available in the grid at such time. There have been several occasions when “available” renewables amount to more than total NEM demand, but a combination of economic curtailment (negative wholesale prices), and grid curtailment reduces that number to levels that AEMO is comfortable to handle. The market operator has been focusing on several technologies to provide these services – synchronous condensers that do not burn fuel, equipping gas generators with a “clutch”, and using grid-forming battery inverters.