Articles by Lynford Simpson&nbsp

Politics

Is it a good or a bad time to win an election?

There is a popular view that ruling parties lose elections that come on the heels of a major disaster which throws a country into turmoil — much like what Hurricane Melissa has done to Jamaica.Two examples that fit this narrative are: The 1989 election, the first after Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 when Mr Edward Seaga’s Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Government was trounced by the Michael Manley-led Opposition People’s National Party (PNP); and the 2007 election, the first after Hurricane Dean, that saw the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP Government losing to Mr Bruce Golding’s JLP.Of course, Dr Andrew Holness defied this risky generalisation by leading his JLP to victory in 2025 after Hurricane Beryl, which notably hurt southern Jamaica in 2024, though it could be argued that the party came close enough to a loss and only managed to win by seven seats, compared with 35 seats in 2020.Hurricane Melissa, coming after the September 3, 2025 election, does not pose the danger of a JLP loss, given that the party has all of five years to overcome the major obstacles posed by this disaster, unless another catastrophe were to face us close to the next election.Still, a Government that has to pick up the pieces after the most catastrophic storm to hit Jamaica could be forgiven for wondering whether it has been dealt a bad hand, because of the monumental work ahead that could last years, even beyond another election.Unfortunately, the Holness-led Administration cannot allow itself the luxury of worrying about what kind of hand it has been dealt. Every member of the Government has to roll up his/her sleeve, take a deep breath, and draw on the deep resolve which is characteristic of Jamaicans to tackle the job.It is a task which is likely to be way more difficult than any other, worsened by the fact that Jamaica has just emerged from a divisive election that ended up with the winning party getting a paltry 11,307 votes more than the losing party.With such a tight margin of victory, the Government will need all its skills to unite and mobilise the entire Jamaica to join the mountainous climb required for the reconstruction project, without which the country will never recover sufficiently from this shock hurricane.At the best of times Jamaicans are dreadfully polarised, some might say fanatical, in their support of party. The timing of the hurricane could not be worse, coming barely over a month after the election, with the wounds of battle still fresh and no chance of national healing.How beautiful it would be to see Dr Holness and Opposition Leader Mark Golding working hand in hand, as examples to the populace, in the way that the PNP’s Mr Damion Crawford and the JLP’s Minister Dana Morris Dixon have agreed to work in education.Once again, we are relieved to see that Dr Holness has appointed a non-political person in Commander Alvin Gayle of the Jamaica Defence Force to serve as director general of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM). This move, we expect, will give the recovery programme a chance to proceed without the usual intensity of the partisan rancour and put the ugly scars of election vituperation and denigration behind us as a nation.Perhaps, after all, it might be a good time to win an election.