Superforecaster - Geopolitical Expert

About The JobMercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey.Position: SuperforecasterType: Independent ContractorCompensation: $140–$245/hourLocation: RemoteCommitment: 10–20 hours/weekRole ResponsibilitiesDeliver calibrated, evidence-backed forecasts on complex, real-world questions.Document forecasting rationale, methodology, and sources with clarity and structure.Participate in peer review and collaborative forecast refinement.Advise on prompt quality, scoring frameworks, and resolution criteria.Support the evaluation of AI-generated forecasts against human benchmarks.QualificationsMust-HaveRecognized affiliation with a forecasting organization (e.g., GJP, Swift Centre, RFI, IIF).Demonstrated forecasting accuracy and calibration over multiple years.Experience contributing to high-stakes or public forecasting tournaments.Strong analytical, probabilistic, and written communication skills.Comfortable working independently and asynchronously on structured tasks.Compensation & LegalIndependent contractorApplication Process (Takes 20–30 mins to complete)Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started.Complete a brief form.We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps.Resources & SupportFor details about the interview process and platform information, please check: https://talent.docs.mercor.com/welcome/welcomeFor any help or support, reach out to: support@mercor.comPS: Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.,