2027: Tinubu has less than 5 months to impress Nigerians — Ali Ndume

Senator Ali Ndume, who represents Borno South in the Senate, was the Senate Leader in the 8th National Assembly. He served briefly as Chief Whip in the current 10th Senate. A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Ndume, a former Chairman, Senate Committee on Army, in this exclusive interview speaks with TAIWO AMODU on the challenges confronting the military in its battle against insurgency, banditry, and other security problems.

THERE has been a sudden resurgence in banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping in recent times. What is actually responsible for this and what is the way forward?

I can’t actually say these are the precise reasons for the resurgence in terrorism. We were about to celebrate, particularly in my zone, the North-East, that we were nearing the end of the insurgency. The state governor in Borno was already resettling and rehabilitating most of the victims. Then suddenly, this resurgence. Honestly, one can’t pin down the exact reasons for it, despite the fact that our military, the Armed Forces, and other security agencies are putting in their best. Terrorism is something the whole world is dealing with at different levels. In some countries, it is insignificant, in others mild. In our country, we were about to get it right, but suddenly we have this resurgence.

Honestly, as a citizen and politician, I can’t point to the exact reasons. But one thing I know is that terrorism—particularly banditry and other forms of criminality—is something that is inborn for some people; it’s rooted in belief systems, especially extremism. It is everywhere. Our own case makes me wonder because the government, the Armed Forces, and other security agencies are putting in more effort than before. In those days, you heard of security agents running away when attacked. In those days you heard of barracks being overrun. But things improved. So it’s difficult to explain. But one thing is sure: if our security agencies and the Armed Forces are trained, equipped, and motivated, they will overcome these insecurity challenges within the shortest possible time. Another thing we may need, temporarily, is to look at the possibility of engaging other military consultants.

You have been Chairman, Senate Committee on Army. That makes you an insider. To those who say we don’t need foreign military engagement or mercenaries as during Jonathan’s era, what is your take?

I have argued about this. Recently, I engaged the top Army brass and they always say they have the capacity. But we don’t have the equipment, the training, the arms; the Army is not motivated, and we don’t have adequate intelligence gathering. We don’t have satellite surveillance of the country—not even the major theatres of operation.

As it is, I know Nigeria does not have satellite coverage. We only have negligible, partial coverage of the airspace. If we had proper satellite coverage, the Army’s cybersecurity department would be seeing these things: the movements of abducted girls, the remains of the General that was killed. But we don’t have that. What we have are drones with limited flight hours. We need satellite coverage of the entire country to provide real-time information on enemy locations. That’s number one. Number two, we don’t have the required air power. The Army has equipment for its aviation system, but right now, as an insider, I know they only have Tucanos. That’s not what is needed to tackle insurgency in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, and now the North-Central. We need attack helicopters and a properly equipped Army aviation unit.

With attack helicopters, ground troops can reach almost anywhere without needing an airport. They can run for hours and refuel anywhere with jet fuel. But we don’t have them. I understand the Nigerian Army ordered 12; only two have been manufactured and none delivered. The government needs to procure these things immediately. If not ready, we should consider getting them from other countries. That’s where the Russian Wagner option comes in.

Aside equipment and personnel, a colleague of yours, former Abia governor Orji Kalu, has alleged a gang-up against Tinubu because of 2027. He said insecurity was used to undermine Jonathan. Do you share his fears?

That is his opinion. Look, if I know those involved and I have evidence, I will be the first to name them.

Was he making a flimsy allegation?

As far as I am concerned, if you can’t take your allegations to the relevant security agencies, it’s flimsy. He is just trying to be politically correct. The time for deception or civility has passed. Everywhere—North-East, North-West, North-Central, South-East—is unsafe. Only the South-West is relatively safe. So why attach political undertones to this?

Why make serious allegations you can’t substantiate? When bandits kill, do they separate APC members from non-APC people? They kill everybody.

His narrative is that, like in Jonathan’s time, there is a gang-up in the North against Tinubu. Are we seeing a repeat of the 2015 experience?

You are deviating from the topic now. Whoever will be President in 2027 has already been written by God. Can anyone change it? If God says it will be Tinubu, who can change it? If God says it won’t be Tinubu, who can change that? So let’s focus on what is facing us. Let’s stop blaming “the North.” Which North? North-Central is crying. North-East is crying due to insecurity. North-West is also affected. If people don’t have peace, when do they even gather to plan a gang-up?

Let us not trivialize security issues. Talking about a gang-up is trivial. With all due respect to Orji Kalu, such trivialities are unfortunate. My concern is security. As the Constitution says, the security and welfare of citizens is the primary purpose of government.

You think the present administration isn’t fulfilling that?

Not at all. The government is still treating the matter lightly.

If I were President, I would leave everything and fix welfare and security. I would collaborate with all state governors, all of whom now realize their states are under threat.

The World Food Programme has reported that millions will face acute hunger this year because many people couldn’t farm due to criminal activities. Government should leave everything and focus on security and welfare. Even if it means shutting down certain activities—what I call discretionary spending—government should concentrate on these two priorities.

If security is restored, the president won’t even need to campaign. Right now, insecurity affects about 30 states—North, West, and South-East. Only the South-West and some parts of the South-South have relative peace. For those telling the President otherwise, I see them as his enemies. If you can’t tell the Commander-in-Chief the truth, and you keep blaming unnamed people, that is unfortunate.

For those alleging saboteurs within the military—Boko Haram sympathisers—what’s your reaction? Being from Borno and former Chairman of the Senate Committee on Army, what is your experience?

Yes, I tend to agree. When the government introduced the “safe corridor” and “repentant Boko Haram” programme, it was a conflicting idea. My position has not changed.

During war, the issue of integrating perpetrators should not be on the table. What should be on the table is settling the victims first—compensate them, rebuild their communities. If someone surrenders, yes, you don’t shoot them. You take them in, investigate, and extract information. But don’t send such people to fight.

In other words, you are against the process of de-radicalisation?

It should continue, but it should not take priority over resettling the victims. As for insiders, yes, they exist. But the more dangerous insiders are within affected communities. I’m from the North-East, from Gwoza. Many times, security agencies have arrested informants and local suppliers. Where do terrorists get supplies? From within.

Yes, arms come across borders, but for regular supplies, insiders are involved. People are tempted because terrorists pay for information and supplies. Our intelligence gathering is not effective enough to track these people. Even when they are caught, they are taken in and we never hear about them again. Many are not charged, so it doesn’t deter others.

There is a lot to be done in intelligence, training, and—most importantly—motivation. Until recently, entry-level soldiers earned only N50,000; now it’s N100,000, which is about $60. Meanwhile, in Ghana, an Army private earns over N200,000.

During my research, I found Nigeria ranks second to last in Africa (54 countries) in entry-level salary for the military. Same with other security agencies. How do you expect people to put their lives on the line for N50,000?

Even after they fall in battle, nobody remembers them. A General has gone missing and there is no situation room; no timely feedback. Same with the abducted girls. Every serious country provides hourly briefings. Instead, the President is calling emergency meetings—this is not something the Commander-in-Chief should be doing. As I’ve said, if the Nigerian Army has adequate training and equipment, these issues can be addressed—no excuses.

Do you think Mr President is overwhelmed?

No, I don’t think so. We’re just not doing the right things. Another problem is that everything is built around the President. In democracy, the buck stops at the President’s table, yes, but government is of the people, for the people, and by the people. It is not “government of Tinubu, for Tinubu, and by Tinubu.” The Commander-in-Chief is the leader but not the sole administrator of the country.

We have three arms of government. What is the National Assembly doing? Nigerians accuse lawmakers of indifference.

Well, you know better. I’m not in the leadership of the National Assembly; you know my position. If you say I am not doing enough, I can say yes or no. But if you are talking about the National Assembly generally, you are asking the wrong person.

You are a strong voice there — former Senate Leader, Chief Whip. Why absolve yourself?

But what am I now? I’m nobody. I’m not even a committee chairman. I don’t even have an office.

You said recently that Tinubu has a few months left to Nigerians. What message are you trying to pass across?

If he doesn’t turn things around, Nigerians will make up their minds, and whatever government does thereafter may not change anything. As it is, Nigerians are not happy with this government. The President can still turn things around. Nigerians are forgiving. If he does the right things in the next one and a half years, people will say he has woken up. But right now, he is not doing well. Nigerians do not feel secure. Their welfare is poor. Even though food prices have dropped, purchasing power has dropped even more. He needs to address these—and most importantly, security, which is deteriorating. We now hear that five or six terrorist groups are operating in Nigeria.

Secondly, the issue of marginalization of the North must be addressed. Although the President reacted to the outcry, it is not enough. The spread of appointments must be reconsidered.

Look at the South-East—they have only five ministers. Ogun State alone has four. That’s not fair. Even that wouldn’t matter if the ministers were delivering, but many are not even visible. Even you as a journalist may not be able to name twelve ministers offhand.

Majority are not working, and the few who are working shift the burden to the President.

But Tinubu still has the whole of 2026 to impress Nigerians. What do you think?

Whatever he does in 2026 will be seen as a political strategy for 2027. It won’t change people’s minds. Let me even extend it to first quarter of 2026: if Nigerians see tangible change, that’s different. The other aspect is that nothing is happening in the ministries. No budget is being implemented. The 2024 budget is being implemented in 2025. 2025 is ending, yet the 2026 budget hasn’t been presented. The Fiscal Responsibility Act requires submission of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), yet we are at the end of November—nothing. Contractors haven’t been paid. Only 30 per cent of the 2024 capital budget has been implemented. There is confusion and crisis everywhere.

Only the President can fix this. He needs to inject new, active people into the cabinet—people who will look him in the eyes and tell him the truth. He needs people who will “own” the government, not act like shareholders waiting for an AGM.

With this unpleasant picture you’ve painted, will you campaign for Tinubu in 2027?

It depends on the people. It depends on what he does for them.

Are you defecting?

No, I’m not. I can’t build a house and abandon it. But if I’m thrown out, there’s nothing I can do.