Australia projected to miss 2035 emissions reduction target ‘by a country mile’ unless it ramps up climate policies

The Albanese government will need to substantially ramp up its climate policies to meet its recently announced 2035 emissions reduction target, according to an official projection that says it will otherwise be missed by a huge margin. Government projections released on Thursday suggest under existing policies the country is on track to cut climate pollution by only 48% less than 2005 levels by 2035 – well below its target of a cut of between 62% and 70% by that date. The climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, acknowledged the shortfall in an annual climate statement to parliament, saying “additional work” would be needed to meet the 2035 goal. He said some policies that had been announced but not yet introduced were not counted in the projections, and that the government would meet the goal by “implementing, strengthening and building on” its policies. “It is normal for there to be a gap between projected emissions and a target 10 years in the future. As new policies are developed and implemented, the emissions outlook improves,” Bowen said. “That’s what a target is for – to drive new initiatives and work.” Related: John Kerry urges Australia to take ‘hard-nosed’ approach with world’s biggest fossil fuel-producing countries at Cop31 The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, said the projections were “diabolical” and “Labor’s addiction to coal, gas and forestry” meant it would miss the 2035 target announced in September “by a country mile”. “It’s likely the true numbers are even worse, given the report seems to have excluded pricing in Queensland’s decision to keep coal in the energy mix for a decade longer,” she said. Waters said Labor should build on the deal it reached with the Greens to pass a revamp of environment laws to “end native forest logging across the country and stop approving new coal and gas projects”. The projections suggested Labor was better placed to meet its 2030 emissions reducing target – a 43% cut below 2005 levels. The projections suggest emissions will be 42% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade. Related: Albanese’s Oprah-style emissions target aims to please almost everyone but risks falling short on climate action But that assessment assumes the government will reach its goal of 82% of electricity coming from renewable energy, which independent experts say is not guaranteed, in part due to issues with transmission connections for new solar and wind farms and supply chain delays. An annual progress report by the Climate Change Authority, a government agency, warned the pace of renewable energy growth over the past five years would need to more than double over the next five years to reach the 2030 goal. Solar, wind and hydro power has provided about 42% of electricity in the country’s main power grid over the past year. The government announced in July it would expand a renewables underwriting program to capitalise on declining costs for solar energy and batteries and help meet the 2030 target. Data in a third report released on Thursday suggested national greenhouse gas emissions have begun to fall after largely flatlining since a sharp drop during the Covid-19 pandemic. The quarterly emissions report said climate pollution was down 2.2% last financial year. Bowen said it was the largest annual drop due to reduced fossil fuel use outside the early year of the pandemic. About half of the 9.9m tonnes reduction was due to an increase in solar and wind generation pushing coal-fired power out of the system. Pollution from power generation dropped 3.3%, or 5m tonnes. It reversed a brief rise in climate pollution from the power sector in the previous year. • Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter There were smaller emissions reductions from underground coal mines, heavy industry, farming and households burning gas for heating and cooking. But pollution from transport continued to increase due to greater use of diesel-power vehicles and more people taking domestic flights. Annual emissions to June were 437.5m tonnes – 28.5% below 2005 levels. In a reply to Bowen’s climate statement, the Coalition energy and emissions reduction spokesperson, Dan Tehan, focused on energy prices rather than climate change. He accused the government of a “betrayal” over an undelivered pledge that power bills would fall by $275 between 2022 and 2025. The Coalition recently confirmed it had abandoned its support for the national target of cutting emissions to net zero by 2050. The reports released on Thursday do not include the emissions that result overseas from Australian coal and gas exports. A 2024 analysis found Australia ranked second behind Russia for exported emissions.