Carlos Alcaraz v Taylor Fritz: ATP Finals tennis – live

12.54pm GMT If Alcaraz wins today, he’ll be one win against Musetti away from ending the year as world no 1. If he loses, a win in his final match will leave Sinner needing him to lose the semi, while winning the title as an undefeated champion; if loses both matches, Sinner will merely need to lift the trophy. Which would be pretty likely, given every tournament both have entered this season, one has won. 12.48pm GMT The problem Fritz has is he too has weaknesses. I’d expect Alcaraz to target his backhand while putting him on the bike, moving him side to side and into the net so he can’t plant feet and thwack. 12.46pm GMT So how does Fritz win today? Well, patience is important: Alcaraz isn’t metronomic like Sinner, and loses his serve more often; Fritz needn’t force things, but when the opportunities arise, he has to be ready. Usually, he’d want to shorten points, but in this one he may hope to lengthen them, hitting full and straight to deny angles and force Alcaraz to seek winners. Otherwise, he has to attack the serve – first and second – and the backhand, then hope for an off-day. 12.35pm GMT Alcaraz leads Fritz 4-1 in the head-to-head … but Fritz’s one win came not that long ago, in September, and it was also on an indoor hard court. I guess we might say it came two weeks after the US Open final, so chances are, its champion has been more focused, but if helps convince Fritz he can win this afternoon, it doesn’t matter. 12.30pm GMT Preamble It’s not easy being a tenniser. To be fit enough to chase like mad for five hours, delivering skills that demand precision and power, while living life on the road away from family and friends, is a confronting existence. The reward, though, for those at the top, is occasions such as this – and yet, for Taylor Fritz, they come freighted with frustration: he’s close to the top of the game, so close he can taste the glory, and yet it looks unlikely ever to be his. He played very nicely indeed in beating Lorenzo Musetti on Sunday, but would that level be enough to see off Carlos Alcaraz? Probably not. And yet. Like Felix Auger-Aliassime last evening, if he serves well, he can stick in sets, and if he can stick in sets, he can reduce them to a tiebreak point here and there, and if he can reduce them to a tiebreak point here and there, if he produces his best tennis during them, or if Alcaraz errs, that’s a lot of ifs, but he can get this done. Perhaps. Either way, though, it’s going to be a lot of fun watching him try, just as it’s always a lot of fun watching Alcaraz watching people try. And if there’s a better way of spending a Tuesday afternoon, I’m yet to discover it. Play: 1pm GMT