Cop30 live: Ethiopia to host Cop32 – but fight to host Cop31 continues

12.59pm GMT

Climate campaigners last night confronted agribusiness lobbyists in a protest at the AgriZone, an area outside the Cop30 summit venue sponsored by Nestlé and Bayer.
The campaigners, part of the Global Campaign to Demand Climate Justice, were protesting against Brazil’s having allowed industrial agriculture companies to set up shop at the summit.
They pointed to evidence showing that industrial agriculture is a main driver of deforestation in the Amazon and produces a third of global greenhouse gas emissions.
The numbers of lobbyists at Cop summits has grown in recent years. Last week the Guardian reported that more than 5,000 fossil fuel lobbyists had attended the climate talks since Cop26 in Glasgow.
“Climate spaces must stop being complicit with all forms of extractivism creating the crisis,” said Erika Xananine Calvillo Ramirez, of the Stop Financing Factory Farming Coalition. She added:

The agribusiness has been responsible for the water crisis in the Ngiwa Valley of Tehuacan region in Mexico, and they must stop greenwashing their image at COP30.

Andrea Echeverri, of the Global Forest Coalition, said:

The AgriZone is nothing more than a huge greenwashing space. While social organizations and other mortals usually compete to be heard in spaces in the Blue Zone and the Green Zone, agribusinesses have a huge space dedicated to dazzling negotiators and convincing them that they are not major polluters but rather the saviors of the planet.
The globalized agri-food system focused on livestock does not fulfill its purpose of feeding the world because it is designed to produce money, not food.
Inside the AgriZone, large companies, think tanks, and supposedly independent research centers are disguising their model with their “climate-smart” models, their smart seeds, their digitization, and their metrics, while they are producing a food and agricultural crisis and a countryside without peasants, and without memory and diversity.

12.25pm GMT
Ethiopia set to host Cop32 in 2027

Cop32 will be hosted in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, Reuters reports.
The news agency says it has been told by André Corrêa do Lago, the Cop30 president, that countries had agreed in principle to hold the 2027 edition of the UN climate summit in the east African nation.
The choice still needs to be formally adopted, in a process which is expected to take place on Tuesday, but which Reuters reported that sources said would pass without a hitch.
If it is confirmed, it means that the host of Cop32 will be decided before the host of Cop31 has been confirmed. Both Australia and Turkey are competing to host the 2026 summit, with Australia making its bid in partnership with the Pacific Islands, which are considered to be among the world’s most vulnerable places to climate change.
COP summits rotate around the world’s regions. Ethiopia launched its bid in September, and it was unanimously selected by the Bureau of African Countries despite a rival bid from Nigeria.

12.14pm GMT

Hello, this is Damien Gayle at the helm of day two of the Guardian’s Cop30 liveblog coverage.
If you have any suggestions for things we could be covering from this year’s climate talks in Belém, Brazil, then send me an email to damien.gayle@theguardian.com.

12.14pm GMT
Negotiations begin at Cop30 after agenda agreed

Thunder, lightning and torrential rain tore down on the Cop30 conference centre in Belém on the opening day yesterday, but the climate gathering has so far avoided the political storms that often shake the early phases of the annual talks, writes Jonathan Watts, the Guardian’s global environment writer.
How long the calm lasts will be clearer over the next two days, when the Brazilian presidency holds consultations with key nations on the items that will be discussed over the coming two weeks.
This is a diplomatic sleight of hand that has so far enabled the host to avoid the usual wrangles over the formal agenda, which have often taken several days in past conferences, holding up all other work. Yesterday, however, the agenda breezed through.
The tough discussions over contentious items will now be wrangled in small-gatherings with the presidency, while other elements in the huge programme of talks can move ahead.
It is an encouraging start for the Cop president, André Corrêa do Lago, who is one of the world’s most respected climate diplomats, having worked on environmental governance since the 1992 Earth summit in Rio de Janeiro – as he has reminded delegates.
Tougher battles lie ahead with the global political landscape continuing to create extra obstacles to progress. While many participants say they are glad the United States under Donald Trump has stayed away rather than being a disruptive presence, there is no doubt that any agreements will be weakened by the absence of the world’s biggest historical emitter and wealthiest nation.
An alternative US delegation will stage a press conference on Tuesday to demonstrate that many in the country are still in favour of ambitious action. Californian governor, Gavin Newsom, and New Mexico’s governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, will be among a group of more than 100 political and business leaders representing subnational coalitions America Is All In, Climate Mayors, and the US Climate Alliance.
Tuesday’s thematic day covers a gamut of topics ranging from adaptation and the bioeconomy to cities and infrastructure. The hosts stress that this should not just about promises and idea exchange, but concrete policies and implementation. “Each day is intended to connect negotiations with real-world impact, offering a platform where implementation, equity, and urgency meet. Cop30 is where lived experience must translate into urgent climate action”, said Corrêa do Lago.
But for the bigger topics of emissions and finance, nations are still setting out their positions. A key debate will be whether delegates can initiate a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, and whether it will encompass all nations.
At Cop28 in Dubai, the world agreed to a transition away from fossil fuels, but this subject was barely mentioned last year at Cop29 in Baku. In preparatory meetings this year, Saudi Arabia has tried to push the subject off the Cop30 agenda. But Brazilian president Lula da Silva has given strong signals to his negotiating team that this crucial issue, which must be at the heart of any effective climate action, needs to move forward in Belém. “We need a road map so that humanity … can overcome its dependence on fossil fuels,” the veteran centre-left politician said at yesterday’s opening session.
If this idea is to have substance, it will need to be mandatory for all nations, but many of the big petroleum-producing countries will resist this. Brazil, which is one of the world’s top 10 oil and gas producers, is an ideal country to push this forward. The question is how far it is willing to go. A roadmap for the entire world would mark genuine progress. A voluntary arrangement in which some countries could opt out would be little more than greenwashing
The host hopes civil society will help to push ambition. Unlike the past three Cops, which were held in countries with varying degrees of authoritarian government, the Brazilian authorities are actively encouraging street demonstrations. Corrêa do Lago has stressed that these are essential to raising ambition inside the conference centre. Indigenous groups and NGOs have been more visible at Cop30, helping to balance out the armies of lobbyists that have dominated recent summits. A “people’s summit” will be held on Thursday and Friday, a global youth rally will take place on Friday, and the biggest demonstration is scheduled for Saturday. Many leading NGO representatives are lining up behind the call for Cop30 to begin the process of building an exit ramp from the fossil fuel era.
“It is shameful that after 30 years of climate conferences we still have no agreed plan to tackle the main driver of the climate crisis: fossil fuel use. Every day without such an agreement is a day lost in the fight against the climate crisis, exposing much of the world’s population to enormous risks. We have all the data and we know the path forward – but we still lack the political responsibility of many decision-makers,” said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary at Climate Observatory Brazil.
Saudi Arabia and like-minded nations will be trying to block or dilute these moves by focusing more strongly on the finance issue, which could easily snarl up the conference. That agenda also needs to be resolved to the satisfaction of the many countries in the global south that are already suffering from dire climate impacts.
Brazil’s skilled climate diplomats have much work to do in the huddles ahead if they are to navigate a path between these potential storms.

Updated at 12.35pm GMT