How can Australia convince the world to give up fossil fuels if Anthony Albanese is contradicting himself on gas expansion? | Bill Hare

With another set of global climate talks behind us, the Australian government faces some tricky tasks before it takes over negotiations at the next round of talks next year in Turkey. Cop30 in Belém, Brazil, did not deliver the bold fossil fuel phase-out roadmap we needed, but it did nudge the system forward with more scrutiny of fossil fuel producers. And despite the weakness of the outcome, one can gain some important comfort by the fact that Bélem – and the G20 in Johannesburg at the weekend – both solidly endorsed the Paris agreement, its central goal of keeping warming to 1.5C and the importance of net zero emissions. Cop30 agreed that an “ambition accelerator” will be needed to fill the gap between what governments are planning (projected to warm the world by 2.6C) and the agreed guardrails of the Paris agreement: a limit of 1.5C.It also, crucially, began the momentum for developing a roadmap for a just transition away from fossil fuels, with more than 80 countries – including Australia – signing the “Belém declaration” on a transition away from fossil fuels. While this declaration didn’t get support from the whole conference, Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has promised to move forward on its implementation during the course of this year, until he hands over to Cop31 in Turkey. And there, Australia, under its deal with Turkey, will take over that momentum. Related: Australia fiddles with fossil gas while the country swelters in record heat. It doesn’t make sense | Bill Hare But there are significant questions as to whether the government will be able – or more importantly willing – to move this momentum for a fossil fuel phase-out forward. This is especially so given that the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has just doubled down on his patently false claim that gas is needed for the energy transition. The International Energy Agency released its annual report in the first week of Cop30. Its net zero emissions pathway confirms our concerns about Australian gas. The IEA’s new net zero scenario clearly states there is no need for new long-lead oil and gas projects, or coalmines. It says fossil gas use needs to reduce quickly to 40% below today’s levels by 2035. Importantly, it also warns that a massive glut of liquefied natural gas supply is developing, a glut that is consistent with the IEA’s current policy scenario that would warm the world by 3C by 2100.Gas is not needed to replace coal, and is not doing so across Asia – the destination for the vast majority of Australian fossil gas exports.Add to this the leaked Deloitte draft report to the Western Australian government that warned Australia’s gas export bonanza to Asia would crowd out renewables and lock in CO2 emissions for years to come.Yet yesterday the prime minister was still dancing around this question, saying Australia’s gas would be needed as a backup to renewables but also that this “firming” would not require any new gas fields and should see the government move toward a phase-out of the massive export program it has approved all the way to 2070. The truth is that much less gas is going to be needed to “firm” renewables, as grid-scale battery technologies take over the market. In the next breath Albanese confirmed that his government would continue to allow new gas fields to go ahead, just as he allowed the massive North West Shelf development go ahead to 2070. These two statements are in direct contradiction with each other and do not bode well for the prospect of his government moving forward a global agreement that aims to get the world to transition away from fossil fuels. The IEA has also confirmed that carbon capture and storage is not the magic bullet Australia claims it is to deal with fossil gas emissions. Indeed our work shows that if Asian countries – and Australia – continue with expansion plans for deploying CCS, they could add an extra 25bn tonnes of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere by 2050. There are many in Australia’s political scene who ask, what does all of this have to do with us? For those who love Australia’s bush, forests, coral reefs, marine life and ecosystems, I would say nearly everything. Because all of this depends on keeping warming to 1.5C. This month we’ve also seen reports emerge of massive coral mortality at Ningaloo reef, caused by climate change-fuelled marine heatwaves. This reef and others like it are finished unless we can get fossil fuels phased out quickly and achieve net zero CO2 in the next 25 years or so. It’s physics. Getting to net zero CO2 globally means we can halt global warming. And getting to net zero CO2 means rapidly phasing out fossil fuels. There’s simply no other way. Related: Net zero is an insidious loophole that distracts from the scientific imperative to eliminate fossil fuels | Joëlle Gergis Australia cannot continue to develop and expand fossil fuel exports and pretend it’s going to be a renewable superpower supporting a 1.5C limit. These contradictions will come into sharp focus over the next year and they are likely to get increasingly dangerous for the Albanese government as people wake up to the climate catastrophe unfolding around them, while watching their government fumble on the world stage. Bill Hare, a physicist and climate scientist, is the chief executive of Climate Analytics