How will climate change affect the UK?

Met Office projections show the UK getting substantially warmer and wetter – with more extreme weather events

In March, the World Meteorological Organisation reported that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere had reached its highest level in the past 800,000 years – and continues to build.

The world has already warmed approximately 1.1-1.3°C above pre-industrial levels (i.e. from 1850 to 1900), and is on track for around 2.5-3°C of warming by 2100. Given that we don’t know what level of future emissions the world will produce, predicting future effects is very difficult.

Subject to the uncertainties above, the Met Office’s latest projections show the UK getting substantially warmer and wetter overall, but with stark seasonal contrasts – wetter winters and significantly drier summers – and more extreme weather events.

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Under a “medium emissions” scenario, Britain will warm by a couple of degrees by the end of the century against 1990 temperatures. The changes are regionally variable. London’s annual average temperature is likely to increase by 2-3°C. In summer, very hot days (30-35°C) will occur more often, and extreme days (35-40°C) will become increasingly commonplace. There will be an increase in average winter rainfall, and summers will be drier, but punctuated by intense storms.

In its 2025 report, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) lists five key risk areas for the UK. First, the threat from extreme weather to food production and nature (i.e. biodiversity and the ability of land, such as peat bogs, to sequester carbon). Second, the risk of infrastructure disruption: drought putting pressure on water supplies, extreme heat buckling railway lines, and so on. Third, the risk to properties from flooding and overheating. Fourth, the risk of heat-related deaths. Finally, the risk to economic prosperity from climate change. The CCC predicts that economic output could be reduced by up to 7% by 2050 (the Office for Budget Responsibility recently put this figure even higher).

The effects are already being seen. In 2024, flooding followed by very dry weather damaged crops and drove up the price of animal feed. This year’s very low rainfall also affected yields. A study this year found that 86% of farmers had experienced extreme rainfall in the past five years, while drought had affected 78%.