Hurricane Melissa latest updates: storm set to make landfall in next few hours as Jamaica braces for ‘storm of the century’

3.38pm GMT

Vaz added that plans are already being put in place to rebuild areas damaged by Hurricane Melissa.
Before concluding the press conference, he reiterated a warning for people living in low-lying areas to seek higher ground.
“You have but a few hours,” he said. “Seek to go to higher ground. Protect yourself and be smart.”

3.20pm GMT

Jamaica’s energy and transport minister Daryl Vaz has said that Hurricane Melissa is “very close” to the island and people may still have time to reinforce their homes in preparation.
He said the electricity grid has already been impacted by the storm and that there have been several outages across Jamaica.
Vaz added that 240,000 customers are without power after critical high voltage substations, transmissions and distribution lines across the island were forced out of service.

2.46pm GMT

Damian Carrington is an environment editor at the Guardian
The climate crisis is making Caribbean hurricanes worse and recent history shows it takes years for people to recover, says Dr Emily Vosper, a climate extremes expert at the University of Bristol, UK.
“In the Caribbean, severe rainfall hurricanes, such as Hurricane Maria which hit Puerto Rico in 2017, are twice as likely to occur in a 2C warmer world compared to a 1.5C world. This is driven by the increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere by a rate of 7% per 1oC of warming. This relation is known as the Clausius-Clapeyron effect and is observed in extreme rainfall. Hurricanes such as Melissa will therefore carry more rainfall than pre-industrial times as a result of climate change.
“Not only does the distribution of population play a part in the region’s vulnerability, but the post-hurricane recovery time can be slow and roughly coincides with the average hurricane return time of approximately 5-10 years.
“The recovery period can be even longer in the case of agriculture. The island of Grenada, for example, was once the world’s second largest exporter of nutmeg after Indonesia. Before hurricane Ivan struck in 2004, over 27% of the island’s population relied on nutmeg as an income source but in Ivan’s aftermath national production declined by more than 60%.
“Unlike bananas, which can fully mature in less than 12 months with prompt replanting, nutmeg takes several years to recover from severe wind damage and even in 2009 the total production of nutmeg was still only 12% of pre-Ivan levels.
“In terms of property, Grenada took over five years to recover as the vast majority of housing, public schools and health infrastructure was severely damaged.”

2.29pm GMT

The UN’s International Organization for Migration said on Tuesday that it is dispatching solar lamps, blankets, indoor tents, generators and other items from its logistics hub in Barbados to Jamaica as soon as the storm crosses the island.“Many people are likely to be displaced from their homes and in urgent need of shelter and relief,” Natasha Greaves, interim head for IOM Jamaica, said.

2.18pm GMT
Hurricane forecast to make landfall in Jamaica in next few hours

Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall in Jamaica over the next few hours, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The NHC said that the slow-moving category five hurricane is 55 miles (90 km) away from the island, the BBC is reporting.
“An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 kph),” the National Hurricane Center wrote in a post on X shared about an hour ago.
“Residents in Jamaica should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the eyewall of Melissa. Remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions,” it added.

1.48pm GMT

Here are some more photos from Kingston, Jamaica, earlier today as the country braces for the arrival of Hurricane Melissa:

1.39pm GMT

From Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg
As Hurricane Melissa prepares to descend on Jamaica people right across the country have been feeling its increasingly destructive effects.
Violent winds and heavy rains have knocked out power for some residents in Portland, St Thomas, St Andrew and Manchester, St Elizabeth and Westmoreland, including in popular tourist destinations such as Negril and Treasure Beach.
In St Elizabeth heavy rainfall and winds continue and there have been more reports of downed trees across the parish. The Treasure Beach and Black River areas remain a particular concern as Melissa is expected to make landfall along the coast.
Over in Clarendon there are reports of flooding in central and southern sections of the parish. Videos on social media show heavy flooding in an area known as Aenon Town. Sections of Toll gate and surrounding communities are also reported to be flooded.
There are several low lying and flood prone areas in Savanna la Mar and surrounding areas in Westmoreland. Residents say they are concerned their homes will not withstand the expected wind speeds.
And along the Norman Manley Boulevard, in Negril, which is home to several resorts, there are already flooded roadways and downed trees. Flat Bridge which connects communities in St Catherine is also flooded and impassable.

1.27pm GMT

The National Hurricane Center has confirmed that Hurricane Melissa is now about 260 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.
The center also said in its latest update that it has maximum sustained winds of 180mph.

12.50pm GMT
Summary of the day so far...

It is 07.50am in Kingston, Jamaica. Here is a recap of the latest developments:

Hurricane Melissa is closing in on Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, the strongest for the island since records began in 1851 and the world’s most powerful so far this year, with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h)
The storm has already been blamed for three deaths in Jamaica, and four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, has ordered a mandatory evacuation of low lying areas amid warnings of catastrophic flooding, landslides and extensive infrastructure damage.
The hurricane is nearing Jamaica but has not made landfall – when the eye of the storm reaches the coast – yet. This is expected to happen shortly but there remains uncertainty around exactly when due to the changing nature of the storm’s speed.
After Jamaica, Melissa is expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba later today.
In Cuba, authorities said they had evacuated upwards of 500,000 people from areas vulnerable to winds and flooding.
Hurricane Melissa could affect 1.5 million people in Jamaica alone, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said.
An official from the World Meteorological Organization said the hurricane will be the “storm of the century” for Jamaica and is expected to cause a “catastrophic situation”.
Tens of thousands of customers in Jamaica have already experienced power outages over the past day as the slow-moving hurricane approaches the island, according to the Jamaica Public Service.

Updated at 12.50pm GMT

12.29pm GMT

Damian Carrington is an environment editor at the Guardian
Advances in climate research in recent years mean scientists can now calculate the influence of human-caused climate crisis on extreme weather events, using a method called attribution. It compares today’s heated world with a world without the higher temperatures.
The researchers at Climate Central have now run the numbers on the key factor driving the strength of Hurricane Melissa – the ocean heat that powers the cyclone.
They found that during Melissa’s rapid intensification the storm drifted slowly over exceptionally warm ocean waters that were 1.4C (2.5F) hotter than average and that these conditions were made up to 700 times more likely because of the climate crisis.
These abnormally warm waters, combined with overall climate warming in the Tropics, are projected to have strengthened Melissa’s top wind speed by about 10 mph, and increased its potential damages by up to 50%.
Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, said:

Climate change is having an impact on the strength of this storm. We know these stronger storms will become more dominant and bring intense rainfall. Rising sea levels mean more coastal communities will be at risk from storm surges and must prepare for floods and landslides.

“Melissa has been a strange hurricane, hanging around in the Atlantic and getting stronger in bursts,” she added. “These rapid intensifications will also become more common with climate change. This is not a hypothetical scenario to be imagined. This is a real and deadly storm.”
“This is one of those worst-case scenarios that you prepare for but desperately hope never happens,” Cloke said. “The whole country will have a deep and permanent scar from this beast of a storm. It will be a long and exhausting recovery for those affected.”

11.58am GMT
Hurricane Melissa will be 'storm of the century' for Jamaica, official warns

Hurricane Melissa will be the “storm of the century” for Jamaica and is expected to cause a “catastrophic situation”, Anne-Claire Fontan, the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) tropical cyclone specialist, has been quoted by the Reuters news agency as having told a Geneva press briefing.
The Category 5 storm is now expected to bring wind gusts of over 300 km per hour (186 miles per hour) and widespread devastation Jamaica, where authorities have ordered mandatory evacuations. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding, rivers bursting their banks and mudslides.
As we have previously mentioned, the storm has already been blamed for three deaths in Jamaica, and four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

11.28am GMT

Dr Leanne Archer, research associate in climate extremes at the University of Bristol, describes why Hurricane Melissa is going to be such a powerful storm and outlines how the conditions have been “supercharged” by the human-induced climate crisis.
Archer said:

There has been a perfect storm of conditions leading to the colossal strength of Hurricane Melissa: a warm ocean which has fuelled its rapid intensification over the last few days, but it is also moving slowly, meaning more rain can fall whilst it moves across land.
Most of these conditions have been supercharged by the extra heat in our oceans and atmosphere due to climate change. A warmer ocean means more energy; more strength; and more moisture in the warmer atmosphere means more rain can fall with a higher intensity.
Jamaica experienced a devastating hurricane in 1903, but analysis of this event undertaken by climate scientists have shown that this same hurricane would have been more intense if it occurred now due to climate change.
This suggests Hurricane Melissa could be the most devastating hurricane to ever hit Jamaica, which will have been amplified by our heating planet.
Climate scientists are clear that a heating planet is likely to fuel hurricanes that lead to larger storm surges (due to higher sea levels); more intense rainfall; higher intensities and a larger number of events that become the most catastrophic (Category 4-5 events). Hurricane Melissa has all these aspects.

Updated at 11.29am GMT

10.50am GMT
Hurricane Melissa could impact 1.5m people in Jamaica, Red Cross says

Hurricane Melissa could affect 1.5 million people in Jamaica alone, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said, warning of a “massive impact”.
“1.5 million people may be impacted,” Necephor Mghendi, the IFRC’s head of delegation for the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean, was quoted by the AFP news agency as having told reporters. Mghendi warned that this number could be “an underestimate”.
As a reminder, after Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are forecast in Haiti this evening.
The Bahamas are set to experience hurricane conditions on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions in the Turks and Caicos Islands forecast on Wednesday too.

Updated at 10.52am GMT

10.11am GMT

Matthew Samuda, Jamaica’s water and environment minister, said he had more than 50 generators available to deploy after the hurricane, but warned people to set aside clean water and use it sparingly. “Every drop will count,” he said.
Parts of Jamaica could see rainfall of up to 40 inches and a “life-threatening storm surge”, according to the US National Hurricane Centre.
Although exact timings are unclear due to the shifting nature of the hurricane’s speed, Melissa is expected to make landfall on the island early on Tuesday. It has just gone past 5.10am in Kingston, Jamaica.

9.36am GMT

Colin Bogle, an adviser for Mercy Corps, an aid agency, based near Kingston, said most families are sheltering in place despite the government ordering evacuations in flood-prone communities.
“Many have never experienced anything like this before, and the uncertainty is frightening,” he said. “There is profound fear of losing homes and livelihoods, of injury, and of displacement.”
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, has said there are 850 shelters across the island, enough for more than 20,000 people.

Updated at 11.30am GMT

8.55am GMT

Yvette Cooper, the British foreign secretary, said in a post on X that she had spoken to her Jamaican counterpart, Kamina Smith, to “offer our support” and was monitoring the path of Hurricane Melissa.
The UK government is advising British nationals in Jamaica to continue to monitor weather updates, follow the guidance from local authorities and points to a list of available hurricane shelters for those in need.

Updated at 12.25pm GMT

8.27am GMT

Here is a live tracker view as Hurricane Melissa barrels northeast through the Caribbean Sea:

8.25am GMT
Tens of thousands of Jamaicans impacted by power outages over the past day

More than 52,000 customers in Jamaica have experienced power outages over the past day as Hurricane Melissa approaches the island, according to the Jamaica Public Service (JPS).
The JPS said its teams have restored power to more than 30,000 of those affected, but warned that heavy rain and difficult terrain are creating access challenges in some areas as the weather continues to deteriorate.
“We will continue to restore power in affected communities for as long as it is safe for our crews to work,” the JPS said in a statement posted to Facebook.

8.01am GMT
Hurricane Melissa thought to be the most powerful storm of the year so far

Hurricane Melissa is predicted to be the most powerful hurricane to hit Jamaica on record and is reported to be the strongest storm anywhere on Earth so far this year when measuring wind speeds and central pressure.
Its maximum sustained winds are 175 mph (282km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center, as of 2pm ET.
Melissa was upgraded to a category five – the maximum strength – by the US-based National Hurricane Center yesterday.
Category five is the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale with sustained winds exceeding 157 mph (250km/h). The chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, Jonathan Porter, said Melissa would be the strongest hurricane in recorded history to hit Jamaica directly.

Updated at 8.05am GMT

7.23am GMT
Jamaican health and wellness ministry reports three storm-related deaths

The devastating impact of the hurricane has already being felt in Jamaica. The island’s health and wellness ministry reported on Monday evening that there had been three storm-related deaths “in preparation” for the hurricane.
The Jamaican ministry of health and wellness added in its post on X:

We urge the public to exercise extreme caution: activities such as climbing roofs, securing sandbags, or cutting trees may seem manageable, but even minor mistakes during hurricane conditions can result in serious injury or death.
Driving through flooded roads or areas with debris is also extremely hazardous. Health centres remain closed, but hospitals are open and attending to storm-related injuries. Please be wise, stay safe, and protect yourself and your family during this storm.

Updated at 7.28am GMT

7.00am GMT
Summary

It’s 2am in Jamaica and in case you’re just joining us, here’s a rundown on the latest news as Hurricane Melissa moves closer to making landfall in Jamaica.

Jamaican officials called on the public to get to higher ground and shelters on Monday evening ahead of the category 5 hurricane, with prime minister Andrew Holness warning it could be a massively destructive storm – the island’s most violent on record.
The storm was on track to make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday, with forecasters saying it could cause catastrophic destruction from flooding, winds and landslides.
The storm was set to go ashore in Cuba later on Tuesday and then head toward the Bahamas.
Melissa has been blamed for seven deaths in the northern Caribbean as it moved towards Jamaica.
The US National Hurricane Centre said the storm was “potentially catastrophic” and that “multiple life-threatening hazards” were in play in Jamaica. Among them was up to 13 feet (four metres) of storm surge inundation on parts of the south coast.
Melissa was centred about 155 miles (245km) south-west of Kingston on Monday night local time. The system had maximum sustained winds of 175mph (280km/h) and was moving north-west at 2mph (4km/h), the US National Hurricane Centre said. At category 5 – the top of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale – Melissa would be the strongest hurricane on record to hit Jamaica directly.
Parts of eastern Jamaica could see up to 30 inches (76cm) of rain, the centre said, citing the likelihood of “catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides”.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in flood-prone communities in Jamaica but some people insisted on staying. Jamaican government officials said they were worried that fewer than 1,000 people were in the more than 130 shelters open across the island.
Several towns on Jamaica’s southern coast reported power outages as winds picked up throughout the night.
In eastern Cuba, a hurricane warning was in effect for the Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin provinces, while a tropical storm warning was in effect for Las Tunas. Up to 20 inches (51cm) of rain was forecast for parts of Cuba, along with a significant storm surge along the coast.
Cuban officials said they would evacuate more than 600,000 people from the region, including Santiago, the island’s second-largest city. With agencies

Updated at 7.16am GMT

6.52am GMT

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in flood-prone communities across Jamaica, with buses moving people to safe shelter, but as we’ve reported, some people have insisted on staying.
Local government minister Desmond McKenzie said on Monday evening that of the island’s 880-odd shelters standing by, only 133 were hosting locals.
They “should be seeing people now”, McKenzie said, adding:

I want to urge persons in these parishes to get to high ground as quickly as possible.

But despite the pleas to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s forecast landfall on the island on Tuesday, many Jamaicans weren’t going.
“I am not moving. I don’t believe I can run from death,” Roy Brown told Agence France-Presse in Kingston’s seaside area of Port Royal.
The plumber and tiler said he was reluctant to flee because of his past experiences with the poor conditions of government hurricane shelters.
Fisher Jennifer Ramdial agreed, adding: “I just don’t want to leave.”
Jamaican prime minister Andrew Holness said at a press conference:

You have been warned. It’s now up to you to use that information to make the right decision.

Updated at 7.17am GMT

6.38am GMT

On the ground Jamaicans are bracing for the approaching storm.
Ava Brown is in St Elizabeth, which is expected to be one of the worst-affected areas, and the author and publisher said that despite taking every possible precaution, she was scared.
“I am a single mom so I had one of my neighbours help me to batten down my windows. We had to move certain things away from the house,” she said.

I’m really scared. It’s scary because, for example, you worry about how to ration the food.

Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg also report from Jamaica that Jason Henzell, the chair of a hotel in the popular tourist destination Treasure Beach, said he decided to leave his St Elizabeth home and relocate his family to Kingston as he saw the effects of the storm.
Henzell said that despite his efforts to “lead by example” and encourage other residents to leave the area and seek shelter elsewhere, some have chosen to remain.

Jamaicans are very deep in their faith … So as a people we [tend] to think that we can pray something away. And for the most part, we have been spared. So there is a feeling as though the Lord is going to protect us. He’s going to take [the hurricane] into a different direction…
But you know … at some point, the luck is going to run out, the blessings are going to run out. And I just, I hope and pray this is not that day, but it is looking like it is that day.

6.13am GMT

Hurricane Melissa began as a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of west Africa and travelled west and developed into a depression, reaching tropical storm status to the north of Venezuela a week ago.
Its rapid intensification over the weekend strengthened Melissa to category 4 as it slowly moved west through the Caribbean Sea, reaching category 5 intensity on Monday morning with sustained winds of 160mph (257km/h).
As Brendan Wood and Lauren Herdman report in our weather tracker, if the storm maintains its current strength it will make it the strongest of only five hurricanes ever recorded to hit Jamaica directly.
Melissa’s notably slow traversal – averaging barely 5mph (8km/h) in recent days and now at 2mph (4km/h) – will exacerbate the impact, with extremely high rainfall along its path. Totals of 200-400mm (8in-16in) are likely across Jamaica by Tuesday evening, rising to 1,000mm in places.
Similar amounts are expected in south-eastern Cuba from late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
In comparison, London and Paris receive about 650mm a year.

Updated at 6.22am GMT

5.55am GMT

Here are some images showing the hurricane’s forecast path as it heads towards Jamaica from the south and the likelihood of it packing hurricane-force winds across a five-day forecast.
Melissa is currently reported as being centred about 150 miles (240km) south-west of Kingston and about 330 miles (530km) south-west of Guantánamo, Cuba.
The system had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280km/h) and was moving north-northeast at 2mph (4km/h), according to the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami.
Interactive

Map

Jamaican prime minister Andrew Holness said the country’s western end faced the worst destruction.
“I don’t believe there is any infrastructure within this region that could withstand a category 5 storm, so there could be significant dislocation,” he told CNN.
Interactive

Map

Updated at 5.56am GMT

5.36am GMT

Landslides, fallen trees and numerous power outages have been reported in Jamaica ahead of Hurricane Melissa, with officials warning that the cleanup and damage assessment will be slow.
Forecasters said the storm was expected to make landfall early Tuesday and slice diagonally across the island, entering near St Elizabeth parish in the south and exiting around St Ann parish in the north.
Hours before the storm, the government said it had done all it could to prepare as it warned of catastrophic damage, the Associated Press is reporting
“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a category 5,” said the prime minister, Andrew Holness.

The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.

Amid the expectation of a life-threatening storm surge of up to four metres (13 feet) across southern Jamaica, officials are concerned about the impact on some hospitals along the coastline.
Health minister Christopher Tufton said some patients were relocated from the ground floor to the second floor, “and [we] hope that will suffice for any surge that will take place”.

Updated at 5.41am GMT

5.20am GMT

The US National Hurricane Centre has again warned on social media that Melissa is “expected to bring catastrophic and life-threatening winds, flooding and storm surge” to Jamaica on Tuesday.
The director of the centre in Miami, Dr Michael Brennan, said earlier in a live update on Monday that with the storm centre forecast to reach Jamaica’s coast “sometime early Tuesday”, destructive winds were expected in Melissa’s eyewall as it made landfall and moved across the island.
He said:

So we could have complete damage, destruction of shelters, homes and buildings in the path of that eyewall, not just along the coast but in areas of high terrain across the central part of the island as the centre of Melissa moves across the island during the day on Tuesday …
Everyone in Jamaica needs to be in their safe place now to ride out the storm all the way through tomorrow.
We’re also very concerned about the potential for life-threatening storm surge inundation near and to the right of where the centre crosses the south coast early tomorrow, with the potential for nine to 13 feet [2.7 to 4 metres] of inundation.

Updated at 7.17am GMT

5.01am GMT
Opening summary

Welcome to our live coverage of Hurricane Melissa as it moves closer to making landfall in Jamaica and threatens catastrophic destruction from flooding, winds and landslides. Here’s the latest as it as just passed 12 midnight in Kingston.
Jamaican officials called on the public to get to higher ground and shelters on Monday evening ahead of the category 5 hurricane, with the prime minister warning it could be a massively destructive storm – the island’s most violent on record.
The storm was on track to make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday before coming ashore in Cuba later in the day and then heading toward the Bahamas. Melissa has been blamed for seven deaths in the northern Caribbean as it moved towards Jamaica.
The US National Hurricane Centre said Melissa was “potentially catastrophic” and that “multiple life-threatening hazards” were in play in Jamaica. Among them was up to 13 feet (four metres) of storm surge inundation on parts of the south coast.
Andrew Holness, the Jamaican prime minister, said as the storm neared: “I have been on my knees in prayer.”
In other key developments:

Melissa was centred about 155 miles (245km) south-west of Kingston on Monday night local time. The system had maximum sustained winds of 175mph (280km/h) and was moving north-west at 2mph (4km/h), the US National Hurricane Centre said.
At category 5 – the top of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale – Melissa would be the strongest hurricane on record to hit Jamaica directly.
Parts of eastern Jamaica could see up to 30 inches (76cm) of rain, the centre said, citing the likelihood of “catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides”.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in flood-prone communities in Jamaica, with buses ferrying people to safe shelter, although some people insisted on staying. Jamaican government officials said they were worried that fewer than 1,000 people were in the more than 130 shelters open across the island.
Melissa has been blamed for seven deaths in the northern Caribbean as it headed towards Jamaica.
In eastern Cuba, a hurricane warning was in effect for the Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin provinces, while a tropical storm warning was in effect for Las Tunas. Up to 20 inches (51cm) of rain was forecast for parts of Cuba, along with a significant storm surge along the coast.
Cuban officials said they would evacuate more than 600,000 people from the region, including Santiago, the island’s second-largest city. Long bus lines formed in some areas.With agencies

Updated at 5.14am GMT