Is AGI the next Industrial Revolution? Here's what Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella thinks

With the growing use of AI across the globe, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella emphasises the potential of artificial general intelligence (AGI) while acknowledging its early development stage.In an interview with Dwarkesh Patel and SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel, Nadella expressed his excitement about AGI and discussed themes including tools, productivity, diffusion through the real economy, and the need for multiple models and ecosystems rather than relying on a single model.What is artificial general intelligence?Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a type of AI capable of understanding, learning, and performing any intellectual task that a human can do. It is expected to possess human-like cognitive skills, including common-sense reasoning.Although Nadella does not entirely dismiss the idea that AGI could be as important as the Industrial Revolution, he notes that the technology is still in its early stages. “I start with the excitement that I also feel for the idea that maybe after the Industrial Revolution, this is the biggest thing. I start with that premise,” the Microsoft Chief said. “At the same time, I’m a little grounded in the fact that this is still early innings. We’ve built some very useful things, we’re seeing some great properties, and these scaling laws seem to be working. I’m optimistic that they’ll continue to work,” Nadella added.While acknowledging that AI is still in its initial stages, Nadella highlighted that it has the potential to be transformative.How does Nadella like to define AI?Nadella also mentioned that his favourite definition of AI was from computer scientist Raj Reddy, who gave a very human-centric description. “He had this metaphor for AI: it should either be a guardian angel or a cognitive amplifier. I love that. It’s a simple way to think about what this is,” the Microsoft CEO said. Will AGI benefit humans?Nadella raised the key question of ‘what is its human utility?’ of AGI. “Ultimately, what is its human utility? It is going to be a cognitive amplifier and a guardian angel. If I view it that way, I view it as a tool,” he said.He also acknowledged that some might become ‘mystical’ about AI, suggesting that it is a tool capable of doing things previously done only by humans. However, he noted that this is a common pattern with many technologies in history.When asked about a common AGI vision, such as a single model that is able to perform almost every job, Nadella said, “If there’s literally one dominant model, deployed everywhere, ingesting all the data and continuously learning, then yes: that’s game, set, match. You’d basically stop shop.” He further mentions that this is not how things are actually unfolding. “For all the dominance of any one model, that is not the case. Take coding; there are multiple models. In fact, every day it’s less the case. There is not one model that is being deployed broadly.”Nadella believes that limitations in domain, geography, and use case will prevent a single model from controlling everything. “Is it going to happen in all domains? I don’t think so. Is it going to happen in all geos? I don’t think so. Is it going to happen in all segments? I don’t think so. It’ll happen in all categories at the same time? I don’t think so," he said.