Labour and Tories blame each other as 2025 small boat arrivals pass 2024 total – UK politics live

4.51pm BST Man sent to France under ‘one in, one out’ scheme returns to UK on small boat A man sent back to France under the “one in, one out” scheme has returned to the UK on a small boat, the Guardian has learned. Diane Taylor has the story. Related: Man sent to France under ‘one in, one out’ scheme returns to UK on small boat 4.01pm BST Corbyn accuses government of 'lying' over reasons for Maccabi Tel Aviv fans ban Sundus Abdi is a Guardian reporter. Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, has called on Lisa Nandy to withdraw what he described as “grossly misleading” comments about the decision to bar Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from attending a match against Aston Villa next month. In a letter sent yesterday, Corbyn said he was “deeply disappointed” in Nandy’s response to an urgent question in parliament on Monday, accusing the culture secretary of conflating a public order decision with antisemitism. The independent MP said his remarks were focused on safety concerns, not religion, and that it was “irresponsible” to imply otherwise. He wrote: This is about a group of football fans with a history of racism and violence. This is not about banning Jewish people – and you know full well that none of us would support such a ban. Any attempt to conflate these two issues is not just grossly misleading; it is irresponsible and represents a shameful attempt to exploit the fears and anxieties of Jewish people. He ended by asking Nandy to “return to the House of Commons to retract your comments”. Corbyn appeared in a video on X this morning alongside fellow independent MP for Birmingham Perry Barr, Ayoub Khan, who supported his call for clarification. Khan said: “This had nothing to do with race, religion, creed or background, but everything to do with hooligans.” Corbyn added: On Monday, Lisa Nandy made disgraceful suggestions that my colleagues in the Independent Alliance group have done anything other than stand up for the safety of the public. Insinuations against my friends will not go unchallenged. And, on social media, Corbyn said the government and media had been “lying” about the Maccabi ban. After PMQs Khan used a point of order to raise today’s Guardian report by Vikram Dodd saying that the original police decision to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters from the Villa Park match was based primarily on an assessment saying that the biggest risk of violence came from their fans. On Monday Nandy implied the Israel fans were told to stay away mainly because the police wanted to protect them from antisemitic aggression. He said that the ministerial code required ministers to give accurate and truthful information to parliament. He asked if Nandy would have to correct the record if she had breached the code. Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, said he did not have the power to require a minister to correct the record. Sometimes he would like that power, he said. But he said the ministerial code was important, and he told Khan he was sure ministers had registered his point. 3.31pm BST Labour and Tories blame each other as small boat arrival numbers for 2025 pass total for 2024 The small boat arrival numbers for 2025 have now passed the figure for the whole of 2024, it has emerged. GB News says the two Border Force boats arrived at Dover at lunchtime with 150 migrants on board, taking total arrivals this year to 36,886. The figure for 2024 was 36,816. The Tories say the total number of people who have arrived on small boats since the general election has passed 60,000. Commenting on the figures, Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: The floodgates are open, the borders are gone, and the British public are left picking up the pieces. The Channel is now a conveyor belt for illegal immigration, and Keir Starmer is waving them through with taxpayer-funded hotel keys. Rapists, gang members, and foreign offenders are slipping through while the government sits on its hands. British people didn’t vote for an open border experiment. Philp said the Tories would solve the problem by taking the UK out of the European convention on human rights and removing all people who arrived illegally within a week. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, also issued her own statement on the milestone being passed. She said: The previous government left our borders in crisis, and we are still living with the consequences. These figures are shameful – the British people deserve better. This government is taking action. We have detained and removed more than 35,000 who were here illegally. Our historic deal with the French means those who arrive on small boats are now being sent back. But it is clear we must go further and faster – removing more of those here illegally, and stopping migrants from making small boat crossings in the first place. And I have been clear: I will do whatever it takes to restore order to our border. Here is a Migration Watch UK chart with small boat arrival numbers, but not including today’s update. 3.05pm BST Western Balkans leaders have arrived at a summit on migration hosted by Sir Keir Starmer in London, PA Media reports. PA says: The prime minister greeted his counterparts from North Macedonia, Hristijan Mickoski, and Serbia, Đuro Macut, as well as Montenegro’s premier Milojko Spajic, Albania’s Edi Rama, and Borjana Kristo of Bosnia and Herzegovina, outside Lancaster House. Kosovo’s Albin Kurti, who has reportedly expressed a willingness to host migrant return hubs ahead of the summit, arrived earlier and was greeted by the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper. 2.26pm BST Fresh blow for grooming gangs inquiry as Jim Gamble, last candidate publicly in running for chair's job, pulls out Jim Gamble, a former police chief and former head the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Command centre, who was thought to be the last remaining candidate to chair the grooming gangs inquiry, has withdrawn from contention for the role. A Home Office spokesperson said: The grooming gang scandal was one of the darkest moments in this country’s history. That is why this government is committed to a full, statutory, national inquiry to uncover the truth. It is the very least that the victims of these hideous crimes deserve. We are disappointed that candidates to chair that inquiry have withdrawn. This is an extremely sensitive topic, and we have to take the time to appoint the best person suitable for the role. The home secretary has been clear: there will be no hiding place for those who abused the most vulnerable in our society. At the start of the week Gamble was reportedly on a shortlist of two for the job. The other candidate, Annie Hudson, a former director of children’s services for Lambeth, pulled out on Tuesday. 2.20pm BST Starmer says he favours parliamentary scrutiny of Crown Estate leases, including Prince Andrew's Keir Starmer told MPs that he favoured a parliamentary inquiry covering Prince Andrew’s housing arrangements at Royal Lodge – the mansion in Windsor which he leases from the Crown Estate on a deal that involves him paying no rent. But whether the PM is seriously calling for Andrew to be hauled to a parliamentary committee to give evidence in person is less clear. Starmer was responding to a question from Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader. Davey said: Given the revelations about Royal Lodge, does the prime minister agree that this house needs to properly scrutinise the Crown Estate to ensure taxpayers’ interests are protected? The chancellor has said these arrangements are wrong. So will the prime minister support a select committee inquiry to take evidence from everyone involved – including the current occupant? And Starmer replied: Well, it’s important in relation to all properties, Crown properties, that there is proper scrutiny, and I certainly support that. Asked about this at the post-PMQs lobby briefing, the spokesperson just referred reporters to what Starmer said in the chamber. In theory, Commons committees can invite whoever they want to give evidence to a hearing relating to an inquiry, and in theory people who refuse to turn up can be held to be in contempt of parliament. But many potential witnesses refuse to appear and – not least because the conventions that constrain parliamentary criticism of the royals – it is fanciful to imagine that Andrew will be up before the public accounts committee any time soon talking about Royal Lodge. That has not stopped the Liberal Democrats issuing a press released headed: “Prince Andrew should give evidence to Parliament over Royal Lodge.” 1.53pm BST Rayner thanks people in the party who have supported her through her career. She says many of her “honourable friends” are real friends. And she says she is grateful for the support she received from members of the public. She ends saying: I’ll just finish by saying that in each generation it has fallen to a Labour government to strengthen the hand of working people. In 1945 it was maternity pay and the NHS and homes for heroes out of the ruins of war. In the 1970s it was Barbara Castle and the fight for equal pay. And, in the 90s, it was the national minimum wage. And, despite the opposition, because of the work of this Labour government, we have the opportunity to write a new chapter of justice and fairness for working people. Now, as tough as politics can be, it is nothing, nothing compared to what thousands of my constituents and this country face every single day. Backbench or frontbench, elected office is not about us, but about our chance to change the lives of others. From wherever I sit on these benches, I will fight with everything I have to do exactly that. 1.48pm BST Rayner says stamp duty error was 'honestly made mistake' in personal statement to MPs following her resignation Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM, is making a personal statement to MPs now following her resignation last month. She says she made a mistake about stamp duty because of trust arrangements relating to her disabled son. She says she hopes the publicity about this will help families in a similar situation who may face a similar problem. She says it was “an honestly made mistake”. She says the tax she owes is being paid. She goes on to talk about her own record in government. She says she knows how important being able to have a secure home is for people. The government wants to put that within reach for people. She move on to accountability, and specifically mentions the Hillsborough law being passed by the government. She says she knows from her experience dealing with the Grenfell Tower tragedy how important it is to hold people in authority to account. 1.36pm BST Nigel Farage took to a side gallery for this week’s PMQs, instead of his usual seat next to other Reform UK MPs, claiming he is a “mere spectator”. As PA Media reports, the Clacton MP sat above the Labour benches with Reform backer Arron Banks. In a post on social media, Farage said: Every week at PMQs I am attacked by the PM and Labour MPs, but have no right of reply. I am just a mere spectator. So I have decided to spectate from the public gallery today instead. 1.32pm BST PMQs - snap verdict Years ago, when I started doing this live blog and writing snap verdicts after PMQs, I tried to consider how the proceedings might appear, not just to MPs in the chamber, but to a non-partisan, fair-minded, reasonable viewer – ie, to the public at large. Even then, that may have been naive. Now at least one of the main performers at PMQs does not seem to think such an audience exists. That was clear today because Kemi Badenoch managed to put in what came across as quite a strong performance (Tory commentators liked it – see here and here, for example) without really trying to engage with the arguments at all. Calls for a grooming gangs inquiry took off in the new year (even though prosecutions have been going on for the best part of two decades, and various reports have explored this in considerable detail) because fresh reporting (mainly from GB News) revived a sense that there are grievance and injustices here that have not been fully addressed. It is a story that flourises online, and appeals to people innately suspicious of the state. For Badenoch, it is very comfortable territory. The inquiry process is clearly in trouble (see 9.11am), and the survivors who have left the oversight panel have clearly lost confidence in the process and it was reasonable for Badenoch to take up their concerns. And there was nothing wrong with gunning for Jess Phillips either. Phillips is under pressure because of this comment she made in a Commons UQ on the inquiry. We are progressing as swiftly as thoroughness allows. Misinformation undermines this process. Allegations of intentional delay, lack of interest and a widening or dilution of the inquiry’s scope are false. Survivors on the oversight panel like Fiona Gooddard (one of the ones who resigned) say they were consulted explicitly on whether the scope of the inquiry should be extended. Whether or not that would be a “dilution” of the inquiry is arguable, but the government should explain why Phillips said the “widening” claim was false – unless she meant it was false because, while it had been considered, it has now been ruled out. But Badenoch did not question Starmer in detail on these issues. She could have done, but she didn’t. Instead, she was content just to assert bad faith, over and over again. And Starmer was trying to address the concerns raised by survivors. His opening statement did this, using similar language to Shabana Mahmood in the Times today. He announced a further, unspecified role for Louise Casey, which is always a sign of this government taking something seriously. (Perhaps she will combine this with being cabinet secretary – see 9.40am.) He also had a good explanation as to why a judge-led inquiry would not be ideal, whacked the Tories on mandatory reporting (see 12.14pm) and (rightly) defended Phillips’s record on child protection (see 12.17pm). A “fair-minded, reasonable viewer” would have concluded that he made a strong case, and that Badenoch should have taken yes for an answer. But God know if there are any of them still out there. 12.40pm BST Harpreet Uppal (Lab) raises a knife attack in her constituency, and asks what the government is doing about this. Starmer says the government has a strategy to tackle the root causes of knife crime. 12.38pm BST Alex Mayer (Lab) says during the war Churchill changed the clocks to ensure there was more daylight in the evening. Will the government try “Churchill time” again? Starmer says he will consider the idea (in the tone of voice that implies he won’t.) 12.36pm BST Rebecca Smith (Con) asks when the government will implement its pledge to reduce business rates. The Tories would abolish them, she says. Starmer lists measures the government is already taking to help businesses. 12.35pm BST Patrick Hurley (Lab) asks what the government is doing to support youth clubs. He particularly mentions the FAB charity. Starmer praises the FAB charity, and says the government’s youth strategy will be published later in the autumn. 12.34pm BST Simon Hoare (Con) asks about the problems facing Jhoots Pharmacies. Starmer says customers and staff have been badly left down. He says officials are currently addressing whether councils and health boards need more powers to go after rogue pharmacies. 12.32pm BST Julia Minns (Lab) asks about flood defences in her Carlisle constituency. Does the PM agree climate change-sceptic policies of the opposition parties are reckless? Starmer says the Tories left flood defences in their worst state for years. 12.30pm BST Starmer attacks a Reform UK council for bringing Reform into disrepute, which he says is “quite something” for a party whose former Welsh leader has been convicted for taking pro-Russian bribes. 12.29pm BST Starmer declines to rule out further delay in council elections because of local government reorganisation Will Forster (Lib Dem) says it has been reported that local elections will be cancelled for a second year because of local government reorganisation. Can the PM rule that out? Starmer defends the reorganisation. He says the timetable for the elections in Surrey will be set out soon. He does not rule out a further delay. 12.26pm BST Wendy Morton (Con) asks the PM to define when grey belt is grey. Starmer says he can given an example of a car park being defined as green belt. That is the sort of place where development should take place. 12.25pm BST Ellie Chowns (Green) asks if the PM accepts inequality, not immigration, is the reason for low living standards. Starmer says, if the Greens want to tackle inequality, they should vote for Labour’s measures to address this. 12.23pm BST Daniel Francis (Lab), who represents Bexleyheath and Crayford, says the local Tory council does not want people to report potholes because it cannot afford to fill them in. Starmer says that is “ludicrous”. Updated at 12.51pm BST 12.22pm BST Davey welcomes Labour accepting Brexit has been 'disaster', and calls for customs union with EU Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, asks if the PM agrees the Commons should properly scrutinise the Crown Estate, given the revelations about the Royal Lodge. Would he support a select committee inquiry, with Prince Andrew giving evidence. Starmer says he favours proper scrutiny. Davey says Labour MPs are relieved they can finally call Brexit a disaster. But that must not be just a means of attacking Nigel Farage, “however much he deserves it”. Will the PM repair the damage by negotiating a customs union with the EU. Starmer rejects that idea. 12.18pm BST Badenoch again accuses the government of failing victims. Starmer says the Tories did nothing to help the victims when they were in power. 12.17pm BST Starmer defends safeguarding minister Jess Phillips after Badenoch suggests she should be sacked Badenoch says Starmer used to call this issue a “far-right dog whistle”. She says victims think Jess Phillips lied about them. She quotes a survivor. She has lost the confidence of victims. Does she have the PM’s confidence? Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, says Badenoch should not have talked about lying, even thought that was not direct quote. Starmer says Phillips probably has more experience of dealing with child abuse than any other MP. And Louise Casey has too. 12.14pm BST Badenoch says Fiona asked what the point is if victims are not being believed. Four victims have resigned from the survivors’ panel. They are right to be worried. It is “shocking” that there is still no chair. The victims don’t want a police officer as chair. They want a judge. Why won’t they get a judge? Starmer says Louise Casey looked at this. She ruled out a judge-led inquiry for two reasons. First, speed. And, second, Starmer says he wanted prosections to take place. If there were a judge-led inquiry, those prosecutions would have to wait. On mandatory reporting, he says Badenoch’s comment implies she does not understand who it works. 12.12pm BST Badenoch says Labour voted against a national inquiry three times. That is why victims don’t believe them. She says victims think the inquiry will downplay the racial aspect of the attacks. Starmer says the inquiry will not shy away from cultural or religious issues. He says Louise Casey recommended a national inquiry. And he says 1,200 historic cases have been reopened. Mandatory reporting of child sex abuse has been introduced. The Tories voted against that, he says. 12.10pm BST Badenoch says Jess Phillips, the safeguarding minister, said claims made by the survivor were wrong. Who is right? Starmer says he wants survivors to be at the heart of this. 12.09pm BST Starmer says Louise Casey to be brought in to support grooming gangs inquiry Kemi Badenoch starts with a tribute to the former Tory MP Oliver Colvile, who has died. She says her first question comes from Fiona, one of the grooming gang survivors. Fiona asks what the point of speaking up if you are going to be called liars. Starmer thanks Badenoch for the question. The grooming gangs scandal was one of the worst of all time. He says his “vow” to Fiona and others is that this inquiry will be different; survivors won’t be ignored. Fiona is welcome to rejoin the panel. The inquiry will not be watered down, it will focus on grooming gangs and it will cover the ethnicity of offenders. And he says Louise Casey will be brought in to support the inquiry. UPDATE: Starmer said: I can tell the house today, Dame Louise Casey will now support the work of the inquiry and it will get to the truth. Injustice will have no place to hide. Updated at 3.12pm BST 12.05pm BST Jayne Kirkham (Lab), the other MP affected by the leak, also asks a different question. She asks about housing in Cornwall. 12.05pm BST Roz Savage (Lib Dem) jokes that yesterday there was a serious breach of national security. Her PMQs question was leaked, she says. (See 11.49am.) She says this made her questions if the goverment could be trusted with digital ID. Starmer defends digital ID, but jokes about it being invisible. 12.03pm BST Keir Starmer starts by saying the government unveiled a plan to recruit hundreds of thousands of jobs into green energy. On Monday it announced V-levels, on Tuesday it held a regional investment summit, and today it is announcing measures to clean up rivers. He also confirmed the govenrment is repealing the presumption of parental involvement in family court hearings. Related: Family law shift hailed as victory for children facing domestic abuse 12.00pm BST Independent MP Ayoub Khan suggests Maccabi fans ban revelations imply Nandy misled MPs about it Today the Guardian’s Vikram Dodd reports that Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters were banned from watching their game against Aston Villa after police intelligence concluded the biggest risk of violence came from extremist fans of the Israeli club. Related: Intelligence on ‘extreme’ Maccabi fans with history of violence led to Villa Park ban The independent MP Ayoub Khan, whose Birmingham Perry Barr constituency covers the Villa Park ground where the match was going to take place and who supported the original police decision to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv fans, has retweeted the Guardian story and suggests that it shows Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, may have lied to MPs on Monday when she criticised the ban, and said it had been imposed in no small part to protect Maccabi fans from antisemitic attacks. If it transpires that a minister lied & conflated matters in the House of Commons & to British public; I’m afraid it’s not just a resignation from a ministerial post; it’s one where the British public would expect a by-election! And rightly so! 11.49am BST Tim Farron defends Lib Dem MP tipping No 10 off about her PMQs question Yesterday Steve Back, the photographer who covers Downing Street and who specialises in close up pictures of documents being carried into No 10, took a picture of a file with the wording of two of the questions being prepared for PMQs. One was the first question, from the Lib Dem MP Roz Savage, about the case for more focus on environmental protections in planning rules, and another was the third question, from the Labour MP Jayne Kirkham, about public transport for students in Cornwall. Back posts on X as PoliticalPics. Its always good to find out what's happening in tomorrows PMQs !! seen going into No10 this morning and what MPs are going to ask. pic.twitter.com/UKnvqeUWPC— PoliticalPics (@PoliticalPics) October 21, 2025 Both MPs have been ridiculed on social media for submitting their questions to No 10 in advance. (Following the Back tweet, they may choose to ask something else.) But in fact it is considered normal – indeed, very sensible – in some circumstances to tell No 10 what you plan to ask, even if you are an opposition MP. Some MPs use PMQs to make party political points. But MPs also raise issues at PMQs in the hope of getting a constructive response from the PM and, if that if your intention, you are much more likely to get a substantive answer if the PM knows what you are going to ask. This is from Tim Farron, the former Lib Dem leader, responding to a journalist who criticised Savage on this point. Sorry Jason, this is such complete and utter nonsense. If you get a PMQ as an opposition MP you can try to score points if you like or you can try to ensure you get a decent answer by tipping off the PM in advance. I’ve done both in my time. Literally nothing to see here. And this is from Peter Heaton-Jones, a former Tory MP. People trying to make this into a big thing… MPs of all parties give No10 prior notice of PMQs because they want helpful responses on local issues. (Exception is LOTO Qs which are more about the ‘gotcha’). The big mystery is: why are aides still using clear folders? 11.32am BST Starmer faces Badenoch at PMQs PMQs is starting at noon. Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question. 11.28am BST Brian Bell, the economics professor who chairs the govenment’s migration advisory committee, has dismissed suggestions that a youth mobility scheme with the EU would help the British economy. Rachel Reeves has claimed the scheme, which is being negotiated, could provide an economic boost. But, as Politico reports, Bell said it was important not to “over-egg” the economic benefits. He said: We issue 25,000 youth mobility visas at the moment [to non-EU countries] per year. 35 million people work in the UK. It’s a drop in the ocean. The UK and the EU agreed in principle to set up a youth mobility scheme at a summit in May. Politico’s Jon Stone has explored what is happening, and his story quotes from what Bell said to a recent UK Business and Trade Commission hearing. The EU wants a youth mobility scheme with no cap on numbers. The UK says there must be a cap, and the agreeement in May said just said that the overall number of participants must be “acceptable to both sides”. Bell said that, without a cap, the government would find it impossible to implement the scheme and also stick to its manifesto commitment to reduce overall net migration. He said: The government would be in breach, very clear breach, of its manifesto commitment to reduce net migration if it agreed to anything like that [a scheme with no cap on numbers]. So I just don’t think that’s possible. I don’t think any political party, or any politician that’s likely to be in power, would agree to that. 10.52am BST Rachel Reeves is delivering her budget five weeks today, and the Times is splashing on the latest hints about what will be in it, saying she is planning “a £2bn tax raid on lawyers, family doctors and accountants as she seeks to balance the books by targeting the wealthy”. It says: More than 190,000 workers use partnerships, particularly in the legal world, and they offer a significant tax benefit over ordinary employment. They are not subject to employer’s national insurance as partners are treated as self-employed. Reeves is said to consider this unfair and is expected to announce changes to the system in her budget. She has repeatedly said that “those with the broadest shoulders” should pay their “fair share of tax”, and many of those who use partnerships are high earners. As Richard Partington and Heather Stewart reported yesterday, this policy has been supported by the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. 10.39am BST Zack Polanski welcomes defection of three councillors from Labour to Green party in Swindon Zack Polanski, the Green party leader, is in Swindon this morning welcoming the defection of three Labour councillors to his party. They are: Ian Edwards, who defected on Friday, and Tom Butcher and Repi Begum, who are defecting today. They will form the first ever Green group on Swindon council, opposing the Labour administration. The Greens say party membership in Swindon has risen by more than 60% since Polanski was elected leader in September. Polanksi said: Swindon is a political bellwether, and what we’re seeing here is happening across the country: people who believed in Labour’s promise of change now see a party that’s abandoned its principles. They’re turning to the Greens because we’re the only party offering real hope, real courage, and real solutions for the future. 10.30am BST Yesterday the Labour party belatedly put out a statement criticising the Tory frontbencher Katie Lam for saying that many families legally settled in this country should be deported in the interests of turning Britain into “a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people”. But it was quite a weak statement, given the extremism of what Lam was saying. The Scottish Green MSP Patrick Harvie criticised Labour publicly for not being able to condemn Lam robustly and unequivocally. In public, Labour MPs have not been speaking out. But, in a story for HuffPost UK, Kevin Schofield says that privately Labour figures “have reacted with dismay”. He quotes one Labour MP has saying: What’s the point of us saying we’re anti-racist when we fail to call out racism? Not only are we cowards but we’re incompetent as well. Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, has now released the text of the letter he has sent to Kemi Badenoch challenging her to disown Lam’s comments. 10.08am BST Grooming survivors say ministers trying to water down inquiry despite reassurances Grooming gang victims have accused the UK government of attempting to manipulate them into broadening a national inquiry to include other forms of sexual abuse despite Shabana Mahmood’s insistence the focus will not change. Rajeev Syal has the story. Related: Grooming survivors say ministers trying to water down inquiry despite reassurances 9.43am BST UK inflation unexpectedly remains at 3.8% for third month in a row UK inflation was unchanged last month at 3.8%, confounding expectations of a rise, in welcome news for the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she plans for her crucial budget next month, Heather Stewart reports. Related: UK inflation unexpectedly remains at 3.8% for third month in a row 9.40am BST FDA attacks No 10 over briefing undermining Chris Wormald as cabinet secretary less than year after his appointment Another topic that is likely to come up at PMQs today is a Times report saying that Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary, who was only appointed in December last year, is expected to be replaced within months. In July Rowena Mason, the Guardian’s Whitehall editor, revealed that Keir Starmer regretted appointing Wormald. “Multiple sources said some people around Starmer were growing to view the choice of Wormald as “disastrous” for the prospects of radical reform of the civil service and had begun to explore options for how to work around him,” Rowena wrote. Related: No 10 regrets choice of ‘insipid’ new cabinet secretary, sources say The Times story goes further, saying that Wormald is now expected to be replaced by Louise Casey within months. In their report, Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund say: No 10 and Whitehall sources have told The Times that Sir Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary, is unlikely to survive beyond January as concerns about his performance increase. Sir Keir Starmer’s inner circle are concerned that the centre of government remains underpowered despite last month’s reorganisation of the prime minister’s Downing Street team. Starmer’s ally, Baroness Casey of Blackstock, the civil service troubleshooter, is taking an increasingly prominent role and is tipped to replace Wormald. The report also includes this quote from a “No 10 insider”. Chris is a parody of every civil service stereotype. He is given clear instructions on an issue and says we will be able to deliver it only after we’ve commissioned a wide-reaching review that reports sometime in the mid-2080s. Casey has been the go-to choice for prime ministers looking for a no-nonsense, results-focused civil servant problem solver since Tony Blair was in office. Starmer has already asked her to do a grooming gangs audit and to lead a cross-party inquiry into adult social care, which presumably will need a new chair if Casey takes the No 10 job in the new year. (Presumbly there are at least a few other brilliant fixers in the top ranks of the civil service who could take on some of these jobs. But, given how often No 10 turns to Casey, you could be forgiven for wondering.) Dave Penman, general secretary of the FDA, the union that represents top civil servants like Wormald, has condemned the briefing against the cabinet secretary. He said: This is quite the strategy from No. 10. Undermine the Cabinet Secretary you appointed less than 12 months ago and reshuffle the two main ministers with responsibility for the civil service. I can see why you think lack of delivery is everybody else’s fault. 9.11am BST Grooming gangs inquiry will never be watered down, home secretary says, after survivors resign from panel Good morning. One of the reasons why Shabana Mahmood was appointed home secretary was because, as justice secretary, when the Tories came at her with a “two-tier justice” attack line that was being enthusiastically embraced by the rightwing media, she saw them off swiftly and effectively (essentially, by coopting the argument and responding). Today she is performing a similar rebuttal operation on the grooming gangs inquiry, which is another area where the Daily Mail/GB News etc are on the warpath and the government is floundering. Here is the Mail’s splash. ‘Chaos’ might be a bit strong, but it’s not wholly unreasonable as a description of what is happening. Keir Starmer announced a national grooming gangs inquiry in June (having previously opposed the idea). Any inquiry like this will only be worth doing if it commands the trust of survivors. The government has not chosen a chair yet, or agreed terms of reference. But it has an oversight panel including around 30 survivors, and over the last three days at least three of them have resigned, complaining about the likely candidates for chair, suggestions that the inquiry will be extended to cover other child abuse, not just grooming gangs, and concerns about the ethnicity of offenders being downplayed. One of two reported candidates for the chair’s post has now pulled out, leaving Jim Gamble, a former police officer and former head the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Command centre as the only person being tipped for the top job. This is problematic because some survivors are opposed to someone with a police background having that role, and the Conservatives are calling for a judge to be put in charge. To compound the problem, Jess Phillips, the safeguarding minister, told MPs yesterday that claims that the scope of the inquiry might be widened were false. She said: We are progressing as swiftly as thoroughness allows. Misinformation undermines this process. Allegations of intentional delay, lack of interest and a widening or dilution of the inquiry’s scope are false. Fiona Goddard, one of the survivors who has left the oversight panel, last night accused Phillips of lying and said she should resign. All this would be awkward on any day. But it’s PMQs, which means Keir Starmer will be facing Kemi Badenoch, who is personally invested in the grooming gangs story and who believes Starmer only ordered a national inquiry because of Tory pressure on this issue at the start of the year. And that is where Mahmood comes in. In an article for the Times, she promises that the inquiry will “never be watered down on my watch”. She says: It was with a heavy heart, in recent days, I learnt that some members have decided to step away from the group. Should they wish to return, the door will always remain open to them. But even if they do not, I owe it to them — and the country — to answer some of the concerns that they have raised. Firstly, this inquiry is not, and will never be, watered down on my watch. Its scope will not change, and nor will its intent. It will be robust and rigorous. It will direct and oversee local investigations, with the power to compel witnesses and summon evidence. Secondly, this inquiry will focus on grooming gangs — and that will not change. Thirdly, it will explicitly examine the ethnicity and religion of the offenders. She has also written for GB News. Will this close down the issue ahead of PMQs? Probably not. But, just as with “two-tier justice”, Mahmood has shrunk the space available for the Tories on an issue they thought they could own. Here is the agenda for the day. Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs. After 12.30pm: Angela Rayner is due to make a personal statement to the Commons following her resignation as deputy PM. (According to Politico, it will be a defence of her record, not an attack on the government.) Afternoon: Starmer hosts summit with leaders from the western Balkans to discuss dealing with illegal migraton. If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm BST at the moment), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog. Updated at 9.42am BST