Markets on track for worst week since April as AI bubble fears mount; UK borrowing exceeds forecasts in October – business live

12.54pm GMT Caution is dominating trading across global markets today, reports Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY. He explains: This is now the worst week for equities since April, and one that has contained the largest inter-day reversal in shares for the NASDAQ on record. Government spending isn’t turning sentiment. Japan’s new PM unveiled $112bn in stimulus, but the country’s equities still fell more than 2.4%. South Korea dropped even further, with the Kospi shedding 3.8%. The MSCI rebalancing on Monday, with a shift toward tech, isn’t sufficient to redress the situation either. Budgets will remain a key consideration for the market, with the U.K.’s turn next week key for GBP and gilts. If there is to be a reversal of the reversal, rates will be key. Yesterday’s U.S. jobs report for September didn’t help clarify Fed easing expectations for December. 12.26pm GMT Mexico's economy shrinks in Q3 Mexico’s economy is on the brink of recession after new data showed activity shrank in the last quarter. Mexican GDP shrank by 0.3% in the July-September quarter, the country’s statistics body reported, a time when trade war uncertainty was hitting growth. If Mexico’s economy were to suffer a contraction in the fourth-quarter, it would fall into a technical recession. 12.01pm GMT Investors are feeling somewhat “bewildered” after the u-turn that hit markets yesterday, reports Saxo UK investor strategist Neil Wilson. Stocks on course for worst week since April, SPX [the S&P 500 share index yesterday] suffers biggest intraday swing since April and Bitcoin at lowest since April...but tariffs are not the issue. Is this the shakeout to clear the decks for seasonal rally starting next week or do we think the technicals are just looking too challenging right now?Investors are feeling a bit bewildered after a sharp reversal in fortunes in yesterday’s US session. Nvidia had rallied at the open and positive stock futures continued into the cash session to see the S&P 500 up 1.9% at its highs before a sudden switch saw sellers take over. The broad market ended down 1.56% for the day in a 235-pt swing from top to bottom. The Nasdaq saw even greater volatility – erasing a gain of 2.6% to finish the day down 2.15%. April 8 was the last time we’ve seen such a swing. It was, in short, a tough day for bulls and a tough day for the Nvidia-will-save-the-market narrative. 11.53am GMT Trading may be calmer on Wall Street when today’s session begins in around two and a half hour’s time. The futures market indicates the Dow Jones Industrial Average could rise by 0.33%, while the broader S&P 500 index is seen opening flat. 11.40am GMT Emerging market stocks have been caught up in the sell-off that began in Wall Street yesterday. MSCI’s index for emerging market equities has tumbled 2.7%, Reuters reports, putting it on track for its worst week since 7 April, when Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs sparked a rout. 11.21am GMT Strategist: The stock market has peaked, and a three-year downturn is starting, One market strategist has warned that the stock market has peaked, and a three-year downturn is starting. Marketwatch has the story: The global liquidity cycle — best described as the flow of funds through world financial markets — is drying up and this is bearish for equities, says a veteran strategist. “We’ve been in a bit of a bubble and liquidity is basically being pulled away,” said Michael Howell, chief executive of CrossBorder Capital, a London research firm, in an interview with hedge fund manager Erik Townsend on the MacroVoices podcast. He thinks the speculative phase of the U.S. market has peaked, and there’s going to be a downturn for stocks that could last two or three years. 11.08am GMT ECB's Christine Lagarde: European growth is linked to ‘disappearing’ world The president of the European Central Bank has warned that Europe’s economic prosperity is geared towards a disappearing world. Christine Lagarde told the 35th Frankfurt European Banking Congress this morning that Europe’s economy was vulnerable due to changes it the global economy – such as the fracturing of the post-war global order – that have put strain on its export-led growth model. As Lagarde put it: Europe’s vulnerabilities stem from having a growth model geared towards a world that is gradually disappearing. We embraced globalisation more than any other advanced economy. In the two decades before the pandemic, external trade as a share of GDP almost doubled in the EU, while in the United States it barely moved. This deep integration brought significant benefits: the number of jobs supported by EU exports rose by 75%, reaching almost 40 million – and for many years, this was a source of resilience. But today, that same openness has become a vulnerability. Exports have become a far less reliable engine of growth, reflecting the changing global landscape. 10.55am GMT Bitcoin heads for worst week since June 2022 Today’s 5.5% tumble means bitcoin has shed over a fifth of its value so far this month. That would make November the worst month for the world’s largest cryptocoin since June 2022, when bitcoin lost 41% of its value. 10.04am GMT AJ Bell: Shift in risk appetite away from tech Stocks are recovering some ground in London, after lurching lower at the start of trading. The FTSE 100 is still in the red, now down 55 points or 0.6% at 9,472 points. Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell says there is “a clear shift in risk appetite evident today”, with tech stocks weaker and defensive-style companies such as utilities and consumer healthcare product providers in vogue. Coatsworth explains: “There is a lingering concern that the AI revolution might take longer than expected to truly transform the way companies do business. People in the late 1990s were right to predict the internet would change the world, they just had to wait a bit longer than initially thought, and that resetting of expectations was central to the bursting of the dotcom bubble. Importantly, there are many differences between now and the dotcom boom and bust. That offers a glimmer of hope we’re simply seeing a perfectly common market pullback after a fruitful period rather than a full-blown correction. Companies leading the AI craze are in a strong financial position. There aren’t signs of excess on the market such as back-to-back IPOs, and most of the big names splashing out on tech infrastructure aren’t binary bets on AI as they have solid business operations that already support strong earnings. They’re very much jam today rather than jam tomorrow. 9.38am GMT UK company growth slows as firms hunker down ahead of the budget Newsflash: Growth across the UK private sector has slowed this month, as businesses and consumers brace for next week’s budget. A new poll of purchasing managers at British firms has found that activity growth has slowed this month, with services companies suffering a drop in new work. S&P Global’s Flash UK PMI composite output index, which tracks activity in the economy, has fallen to 50.5 this month, down from 52.2 in October, and nearer to the 50-point mark showing stagnation. Many services companies attributed the slowdown to “heightened client caution” ahead of the Budget, S&P Global says, while manufacturers experienced an uptick in output, following the first rise in a year in October. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, suggests the slowdown could encourage the Bank of England to cut interest rates again next month: November’s flash PMI surveys brought disappointing news on the UK economy. Economic growth has stalled, job losses have accelerated, and business confidence has deteriorated. The PMI is broadly consistent with no change in GDP in November and a meagre 0.1% quarterly pace of growth so far in the fourth quarter. “Some of this malaise has been blamed on paused spending decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, but there’s a real chance this pause may turn into a downturn. The drop in confidence about the year ahead reflects growing concerns that business conditions will remain tough in the coming months, largely linked to speculation that further demanddampening measures will be introduced in the Budget. Concerns over the inflation outlook will meanwhile be further assuaged by a marked drop in selling price inflation to the lowest for nearly five years. Faced by weak demand and intensifying competition, firms are cutting prices to win sales. Prices charged for goods fell at the sharpest rate since 2016, and service providers are likewise reporting much-reduced pricing power. While this is good news for inflation, it’s bad news for business profits, hiring and investment. The PMI data therefore suggest the policy debate will shift further away from inflation worries toward the need to support the struggling economy, hence adding to the chances of interest rates being cut in December.” 9.32am GMT The possibility of a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine war have pushed the oil price down today. Brent crude has fallen by 1.1% this morning to $62.70 per barrel, its third daily fall in a row, with US crude (WTI) down 1.44% at $58.15 per barrel. Price fell even though the latest proposed peace deal does not look realistic. Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, says: WTI crude oil is trading lower as President Trump pressures Ukraine to accept a 28-point peace plan that would require Ukraine to cede Donbas and Crimea, cap its army, and abandon NATO aspirations. With Ukraine yet to formally reject the deal, the slim odds of an agreement are weighing on prices, as it would remove much of the war’s geopolitical risk premium baked into crude. Rejection of the deal would likely see prices rebound toward $61.00. Updated at 10.12am GMT 9.13am GMT We also have some encouraging economic data from Europe. Business activity across the eurozone has continued to increase solidly this month, according to a ‘flash’ survey of purchasing managers across Europe. Data provider S&P Global also found that eurozone companies are more upbeat on the outlook for the coming year, even though new order growth has softened this month. The pick-up was driven by the services sector, where growth hit an 18-month high, while manufacturing shrank slightly. Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: For months the manufacturing sector of the eurozone has been marooned in a no-man’s land of directionlessness. Production has picked up slightly since March of this year, but the overall situation has not improved during this period. Companies continue to face weak demand, which is reflected in a slight decline in new orders. In this environment, companies have reduced their inventories of both intermediate goods and finished goods even more sharply than in the previous month, meaning that the inventory cycle continues to show no signs of turning upward. We are still several months, and possibly even several quarters, away from sustained expansion in the manufacturing sector. In the manufacturing sector, Germany and France are moving in the same direction – unfortunately, it is the wrong one, with the index falling markedly in both. Updated at 11.07am GMT 8.59am GMT European defence shares have fallen to their lowest levels since early September today, after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he will negotiate with Donald Trump on a US-backed peace plan to end the war with Russia. An index of European aerospace and defence companies is down 2.55% today. Germany’s RENK, which makes drivetrain and suspensions for military vehicles, has fallen by 5.35%, with arms maker Rheinmetall down 4.7%. Updated at 8.59am GMT 8.50am GMT Uncertainty over when US central bankers might next cut interest rates is adding to the market turmoil. Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets, says investors have been flooded with a truckload of Fed speak in recent sessions, which has echoed a cautious/hawkish vibe. Hill explains: Governor Michael Barr urged caution regarding further rate cuts, as inflation remains above target, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that premature easing could prolong high inflation and elevate financial stability risks. Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee also expressed concerns about a December cut. However, countering this view, Governor Stephen Miran stated that policy remains restrictive and should be eased to neutral. 8.32am GMT There’s another sell-off in crypto assets today too. Bitcoin is currently down 3.3% and earlier hit a low of $82,032, the weakest level since mid-April. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says: The crash in cryptocurrencies may be forcing investors to liquidate other positions – likely their tech bets. Bitcoin is testing the $86k level at the time of writing, and to be fair, there’s nothing to stop the fall given that we have no idea what a coin is worth – other than the value we collectively give it. 8.21am GMT XTB: Stocks on track for worst week since April European markets are a sea of red, as the major bourses end the week poorly. Germany’s DAX index has dropped by 1.3%, France’s CAC is 0.9% lower, and Spain’s IBEX has lost 1.3%. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says: The premise for stocks on Thursday was strong: Nvidia’s results were stunning, and the US unemployment rate rose, sparking hope that the FOMC may consider a rate cut next month. However, there was a categorical reversal in sentiment, stocks plunged, intra-day volatility surged to its highest level since April, and Nvidia’s share price shed 3%. Stocks are now on track to register their worst week since President Trump’s tariff plan ripped through markets back in April. 8.19am GMT Asia-Pacific markets have fallen again today. China’s CSI 300 has dropped by 2.4% today, while South Korea’s KOSPI index has shed 4.2%. 8.06am GMT FTSE 100 hits one-month low as AI bubble fears rise Shares are falling faster than wickets in Perth at the start of trading in London, as fears of an AI bubble rip through markets again. Following losses on Wall Street last night, the FTSE 100 share index has dropped by 104 points, or just over 1%, at the start of trading to 9423 points. That’s a one-month low. Defence firm Babcock (-4.7%) is leading the followers, followed by technology investor Polar Capital, then precious metals producers Endeavour Mining (-4.1%) and Fresnillo (-4.5%). This follows wild trading in the US yesterday, where stocks initially rallied but then fell back as investors digested forecast-beating results from Nvidia and a mixed US jobs report. Despite Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings exceeded expectations, concerns persist around the firms using those chips to invest in AI, spending heavily and driving that demand. “The people who are selling the semiconductors to help power AI doesn’t alleviate the concerns that some of these hyper-scalers are spending way too much money on building the AI infrastructure,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. “You have the company that’s benefiting it, but the others are still spending too much money.” Related: AI bubble fears return as Wall Street falls back from short-lived rally Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says: it’s been a truly remarkable 24 hours, with a sequence of moves that were almost impossible to predict…. After the world’s largest company reported spectacular results, the stock was up around +5% by 3pm London time. It closed down -3.15%. The broader market followed a similar pattern: the S&P 500 initially climbed +1.93%, only to fade and close down -1.56% as doubts about AI valuations crept back in. That marked the biggest intra-day swing for the S&P since the six days of extreme market turmoil that followed the Liberation Day tariffs in early April. Adding to the negative backdrop for crypto were lingering questions over the crypto market structure bill that’s being worked on in Congress. Updated at 8.07am GMT 7.52am GMT Ofgem’s decision to raise the UK price cap slightly, as we enter the coldest months of the year, is a blow. Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch.com, calls it a “tedious disappointment”: Millions of homes will now have their heating on to cope with this week’s cold snap, so the stubbornly high energy price cap is a stark reminder of the need for households to take matters into their own hands. Industry forecasts had been predicting a small fall in the cap, so this increase will be a tedious disappointment for the millions of standard tariff customers who are already paying over the odds for their energy. Customers on a price-capped tariff can switch to a fixed deal now and start seeing average savings of £185 a year. In doing so, they’ll also protect themselves from the predicted increase we might see in April. Consumers should run a comparison for their usage levels and region. For households able to switch, fixing now at a cheaper rate is the best defence against high winter bills. Two million households are planning to go without central heating this winter, which is a damning indictment of the state of energy affordability. All eyes are now on next week’s budget and whether the chancellor can deliver any more meaningful support on energy bills. Importantly, a mooted removal of VAT on energy bills would apply to all customers – so those choosing a fixed deal to beat the price cap would save twice. Updated at 11.08am GMT 7.39am GMT Capital Economics: A bleak backdrop for the Budget This morning’s economic data paints “a pretty grim picture”, creating a bleak backdrop for the Budget, says Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics. On the public finances, Gregory explains: The £17.4bn of public sector net borrowing in October was once again higher than the consensus forecast of £15.1bn and the OBR’s forecast of £14.4bn. This means that after seven months of the 2025/26 financial year, public sector net borrowing is a huge £9.9bn higher than the OBR forecast at the Spring Statement in March. The overshoot in the Chancellor’s chosen fiscal mandate of the current budget is even greater, at £15.1bn. Higher local authority spending, which is particularly subject to revision, has been a key source of the overshoot. But the slow growth of tax receipts has played a part too, which has been surprising given that high inflation has boosted consumer spending in nominal terms. And on retail sales, the 1.1% month-on-month-fall in retail sales volumes in October “isn’t quite as bad as it looks”, and could be reversed in November if consumers were indeed holding back spending ahead of Black Friday But, she adds: The risk is that the fourth quarter isn’t a golden one for retailers and that higher taxes in the Budget restrain retail spending over the crucial festive period and going into next year. 7.24am GMT Quilter Cheviot: Reeves is running out of room Today’s borrowing figures compound the woes for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she seeks to plug gaps in the public finances and find extra to rebuild her headroom for future shocks, says Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot: Carter points out that borrowing so far this financial year is £9bn higher than a year before, which he says highlights the extent to which the government has increased borrowing since coming to power last year. Markets and investors are craving some sort of fiscal responsibility from the UK government, but with next week expected to bring yet more tax rises and potential unintended consequences, one does begin to question how long this current approach can last. Without a shift in the fiscal rules again, the UK economy is bound between tax rises, spending cuts or a combination of the two. So far this government has preferred to use the lever of tax rises and found its backbenchers have jammed the spending cuts one. Economic growth is subsequently difficult to achieve and shows no sign of taking off again any time soon. Gilt yields have been climbing higher once again in recent weeks, and the UK still has a risk premium attached to it compared to peers. Ultimately, today’s borrowing figures suggest Reeves is running out of room, and potentially time, to kick start the economy and get it growing once again. While rate cuts will help, inflation remains sticky and as such the Bank of England may not act as aggressively as the government would like. The ball is in Reeves’s court, but her next move will prove crucial next week. Updated at 11.08am GMT 7.18am GMT Borrowing lower than in October 2024 At £17.4bn, UK government borrowing in October was £1.8bn less than October 2024 (a smaller fall than expected). This fall was due to taxes rising faster than spending. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner explains: Borrowing this October was down on the same month last year, although it was still the third-highest October figure on record in cash terms. While spending on public services and benefits were both up on October last year, this was more than offset by increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions. Updated at 11.21am GMT 7.08am GMT UK borrowing higher than forecast in October Newsflash (yes, another one): The UK government borrowed more than forecast last month to balance the books, highlighting the fiscal challenge facing Rachel Reeves in next month’s budget. The Office for National Statistics has reported that the UK borrowed £17.4bn in October, to cover the shortfall between tax income and spending. City economists had expected borrowing to drop to £15bn, down from the £20bn borrowed in September. Significantly, this is £3bn more than the £14.4bn forecast in March 2025 by the Office for Budget Responsibility. So far this year, the UK government has borrowed £116.8bn; £9.0bn more than in the same seven-month period of 2024. That’s the second-highest April to October borrowing (not adjusted for inflation) on record, after that of 2020. 7.04am GMT GB retail sales fall for first time since May Newsflash: Retail sales fell across Great Britain last month, for the first time since May. The Office for National Statistics has reported that retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in October 2025. The ONS says: Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order retailers fell in October 2025, which some retailers attributed to consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday. That follows a 0.7% rise in September (revised up from a 0.5% rise) and a 0.5% increase in August (revised down from a 0.6% rise) 6.54am GMT UK energy cap to rise by 0.2% in January Newsflash: Hopes for a small fall in energy bills across Great Britain have been dashed. Regulator Ofgem has just announced that from 1 January to 31 March 2026 there will be a small monthly increase of 28 pence on the price of energy for a typical household who use electricity and gas and pay by Direct Debit. The change means the average dual fuel energy bill will increase to £1,758 per year in January to March, up from £1755 in the current quarter, an increase of 0.2%. As flagged in the introduction, forecasters had expected a 1% drop in the cap which would have saved a typical household £22 per year. Ofgem says: Compared to the level between January and March 2025, it is 1% or £20 lower. Year on year when adjusted for inflation the new cap is 2% or £37 lower than the same period in 2025. The annual cost for people who use electricity and gas and pay by Direct Debit would be £1,758 per year (0.2%). Updated at 7.00am GMT 6.45am GMT AI bubble fears return as Wall Street falls back from short-lived rally There may be jitters in the European markets today, after losses on Wall Street last night. Fears of a growing bubble around the artificial intelligence frenzy resurfaced yesterday, less than 24 hours after strong results from chipmaker Nvidia sparked a rally. Wall Street initially rose after Nvidia, the world’s largest public company, reassured investors of strong demand for its advanced data center chips. But the relief dissipated, and technology stocks at the heart of the AI boom came under pressure. The benchmark S&P 500 closed down 1.6%, and the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 0.8% in New York. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.2%. Related: AI bubble fears return as Wall Street falls back from short-lived rally The futures market indicates we’ll see losses in London when trading begins at 8am. 6.41am GMT Introduction: Public finances, retail sales and price cap coming up Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. We’re about to get the final healthcheck on the UK economy ahead of next week’s budget. The latest public finances are expected to show the UK borrowed around £15bn in October to cover the shortfall between tax receipts and spending. Economists will scrutinise the data to see whether the government has fallen further off course against the forecasts set in March. New retail sales data is also due, and show whether consumers were hit by pre-budget caution. The City expects retail sales were flat month-on-month in October, but up 1.5% compared with a year ago. And in a flurry of early morning news, energy regulator Ofgem is about to set the latest price cap on bills across Great Britain. Households may get a little respite from rising costs – the cap is expected to drop by around 1% from January due to lower wholesale gas prices. That would lower the average dual-fuel bill for a typical household to £1,733 a year, down £22, forecaster Cornwall Insight has said. Related: Energy price cap in Great Britain expected to fall in January – but higher bills loom The agenda 7am GMT: UK public finances for October 7am GMT: UK retail sales for October 7am GMT: UK energy price cap for January-March 2026 to be set 8am GMT: Eurozone flash PMI economic data 9:30am GMT: UK flash PMI economic data 3.40pm GMT: Bank of England chief economistHuw Pill panellist in Zurich on ‘the future of the world’s leading currencies’