Nate Silver Says Trump's 'Huge Blunder' Hurt Approval Rating

Pollster Nate Silver has warned that Donald Trump’s approval rating is falling sharply, calling the president’s handling of the federal shutdown a “huge blunder.” The government shutdown began on October 1, after Republicans and Democrats failed to pass a funding deal to keep the government open amid a disagreement over tax credits connected to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Since then, thousands of federal workers have been furloughed, thousands of flights have been canceled, and public services have seen major disruption as the shutdown became the longest one in history this week. As a result, polling has shown Trump’s approval ratings taking a significant hit. Why It Matters The prolonged government shutdown has not only disrupted essential services and left hundreds of thousands of federal workers without pay, but it’s also inflicting political damage on Donald Trump at a crucial moment. A sharp decline in the president’s approval rating could weaken his standing heading into the midterms. President Donald Trump attends an NFL football game between the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md., Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025. What To Know When the shutdown began on October 1 and early polling showed only a slight advantage for Democrats in blame assignment, Trump’s support initially held steady. But by late October, his net approval rating tumbled from around –7.5 to –13. It comes after Trump’s approval rating hit a previous new low last week of -8.9 percentage points in the RealClearPolling tracker. Trump’s approval rating also hit a new low in Newsweek’s tracker last week, reaching -13 points, with 55 percent disapproving and 42 percent approving. However, it has now crept back up to -9 points, with 43 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving. Recent individual polls have also suggested that discontent is growing. Surveys by Quinnipiac University (-14), YouGov/The Economist (-18), Ipsos/Reuters (-17) and Navigator Research (-15) all found widespread disapproval, while typically friendlier pollsters such RMG Research (-5) also showed him underwater. Silver points to the food-stamps program (SNAP) as a key turning point. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said it would tap a $4.65 billion emergency fund to keep the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) running during the shutdown, though benefits were cut to roughly two-thirds of normal levels for about 42 million Americans. The administration claimed it lacked resources to maintain full payments and warned the program could halt entirely without new spending legislation. Two federal judges later ruled that withholding benefits violated federal law and ordered the government to restore full payments. President Trump defended his position on Truth Social, saying benefits would resume “only when the radical left Democrats open up government.” The White House later clarified that the administration would comply with the ruling but wanted to avoid relying on emergency funds again. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries accused Trump and Republicans of “weaponizing hunger” to gain leverage in budget talks. Amid fears of benefits cuts, public attention shifted away from health-care arguments and toward Trump’s perceived responsibility, Silver wrote. He added that the issue was “something real enough to contribute to Democrats absolutely crushing Republicans” in key state contests last week. In New York City, 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani became the city’s first Muslim mayor after defeating Trump-backed independent Andrew Cuomo in a race defined by record youth turnout. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger secured the governorship with a decisive lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, while Mikie Sherrill prevailed in New Jersey following a campaign centered on affordability and public safety. Meanwhile, California voters passed Proposition 50, a redistricting measure championed by Governor Gavin Newsom that could flip several Republican-held congressional seats. But the success for the Democrats may be temporary, with the government now set to reopen. The Senate on Monday approved a short-term spending bill to keep the government funded through the end of January, marking a major step toward ending the record-long shutdown. The measure advanced after several Democratic senators broke ranks with party leadership to side with Republicans in favor of reopening the government. The agreement provides temporary funding for federal agencies while setting up a future Senate vote on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits, which are scheduled to lapse on January 1. Many Democrats had previously refused to back a deal without assurances that those credits would be renewed. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters Monday that he could not commit to allowing a vote on the ACA extension, even if it clears...