OPEC+ maintains output levels, agrees capacity mechanism

OPEC+ agreed Sunday to maintain its oil production levels for the first quarter of 2026, opting for stability as the group weighs market risks and concerns over a potential global supply glut.

The meeting of OPEC+, which pumps half of the world's oil, comes during a fresh U.S. effort to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could add to oil supply if sanctions on Russia are eased.

If the peace deal fails, Russia could see its supply curbed further by sanctions. OPEC+ groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia.

Brent crude closed on Friday near $63 a barrel, down 15% this year.

"The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly," said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

Over 3 mln BPD output cuts still in place

OPEC+ has paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025, and Sunday's meeting reaffirmed that decision, OPEC said in a statement.

The group still has about 3.24 million bpd of output cuts in place, representing around 3% of global demand. The Sunday meetings did not alter those.

OPEC said the OPEC+ group had approved a mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity to be used for setting output baselines from 2027, against which members' output targets are set.

OPEC+ has been discussing the issue for years and it has proved difficult because some members such as the United Arab Emirates have increased capacity and want higher quotas.

Other members such as African countries have seen declines in production capacity but are resisting quota cuts. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement about its production quotas.