RJD wins votes loses Bihar polls

Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD was routed in the Assembly polls despite securing a higher vote share than both the BJP and JD(U). Projected as the INDIA bloc’s next chief minister, Tejashwi, however, salvaged some pride by retaining his Raghopur seat. Yet, the RJD’s defeat shows that voters not only rejected the alliance but also largely dismissed its campaign. Contesting 143 seats in the 243-member Assembly, the RJD has so far secured a 22.84 per cent vote share — 1.94 percentage points more than the BJP and 3.91 points more than the JD(U). The BJP stands at 20.40 per cent, while the JD(U) has 18.83 per cent.The RJD entered the 2025 race relying on its traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) base, which forms roughly 30 per cent of Bihar’s electorate. Tejashwi struggled to win over Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Dalits, and aspirational youth, who over the past decade have steadily shifted toward the JD(U)-BJP combine. The MY formula, crafted by Lalu Prasad Yadav in 1990 after the Bhagalpur riots, once powered the party’s uninterrupted rule until 2005. But in 2025, Tejashwi failed to expand beyond this core. The much-publicised 2023 caste survey, pitched by the RJD as a milestone for backward caste empowerment, failed to generate broader traction, with critics dismissing it as a political tool rather than a transformative step. Tejashwi’s failure to treat allies — the Congress, Left parties, and smaller partners — as equals led to major strategic errors and weakened coalition cohesion. Seat-sharing tensions and his RJD-centric approach caused internal friction and poor vote transfers. He branded the alliance manifesto as Tejashwi’s Pledge and sidelined allies in campaign material, where Rahul Gandhi’s photos appeared notably smaller. His campaign leaned heavily on big populist promises — Government jobs for every household, expanded pensions, and a review of the liquor ban — but lacked credible implementation plans. The absence of a clear blueprint for funding and executing the job for every household pledge fueled voter distrust. Tejashwi’s attempt to balance Lalu Prasad Yadav’s complex legacy produced a muddled strategy. While he embraced Lalu’s social justice plank, he simultaneously distanced himself from the image by reducing Lalu’s presence on posters — a contradiction the NDA capitalised on. Despite efforts to recast the RJD as a governance- and welfare-focused party, the shadow of the 1990-2005 period - widely labelled — remained a major deterrent. The NDA, especially the JD(U), reinforced this contrast by noting that elections today see minimal violence compared to earlier decades, citing that in the 1985, 1990, and 1995 polls, dozens were killed and repolling was ordered in hundreds of booths. Nitish Kumar’s reputation for stability and improved law and order further overshadowed Tejashwi’s promises. This election marks the RJD’s second-worst performance in Bihar. In the 2005 Assembly polls — when Nitish Kumar swept to power with a thumping NDA victory — the RJD won 55 seats. At the time, Rabri Devi was Chief Minister and the party was battling deep anti-incumbency. Nitish Kumar, in alliance with the BJP, ended the RJD’s long rule. The party’s worst performance came in 2010, when it secured just 22 seats.