2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects

Jordan Rodgers joins “Get Up” and analyzes the Jets’ quarterback options in the 2026 NFL draft class. (1:10)

The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is taking shape after 10 weeks of the 2025 season. Five teams have at least a 5% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises after midseason.

Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each of the five teams' schedules the rest of the way. Dan Graziano answered how the No. 1 pick could impact each team's current QB room. Our NFL Nation reporters looked at the biggest positional needs that could be addressed in the first round in April. Matt Miller spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it landed that top selection. And finally, Ben Solak rated each team's "excitement factor" on a 1-10 scale (with 10 being the most excited) if they picked No. 1 overall.

Let's start with the Titans, who currently have the best odds at the first overall pick.

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 36.6% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.3%

What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?

It will get easier, though I suppose that might not be a good thing for Tennessee now. After having played the hardest schedule in the NFL to this point, the Titans have the 18th-hardest slate remaining, per the FPI. The Titans aren't favored in any games, but there are two contests very close to a coin flip: at the Browns in Week 14 and versus the Saints in Week 17. Other than that, the Titans are at least 6-point underdogs in every game. -- Walder

What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Cam Ward?

Help! Having the No. 1 pick and not needing a quarterback is a fantastic position for a team to be in. The Titans could either use the pick on the best non-quarterback in the draft, which would improve the team around Ward for the future, or they could trade it for a haul of picks to a QB-needy team and use the added draft capital to continue building around Ward. -- Graziano

Edge rusher. Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson deserves credit for how he has manufactured a pass rush with so few true impact players. Still, Tennessee's 22 sacks this season rank 22nd in the league. Outside of Jeffery Simmons, there is no defensive player who poses a significant threat to opposing offenses. The Titans don't have a single player on the roster who has logged a double-digit sack season. Adding a game changer to come off the edge and make big plays when it matters the most would help the defense immensely. The last edge rusher drafted by Tennessee in the first round was Derrick Morgan, who was selected 16th in 2010. -- Turron Davenport