Bowl projections: Miami shines as bubble team in focus, Texas joins College Football Playoff discussion

For one final time during the regular season, we've updated our bowl game and College Football Playoff projections coming out of rivalry weekend ahead of the selection committee's penultimate top 25 rankings on Tuesday. This will be a telling poll from the committee for teams on the bubble, including BYU, Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas, among others.Miami won its fourth straight game in convincing fashion at Pittsburgh to end with season and leave the committee with something to think about during deliberations. And for Texas, no team during rivalry weekend managed a more emphatic victory after the Longhorns squashed Texas A&M's unbeaten season.The way we see it, the following teams are playoff locks entering conference championship weekend: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon and Ole Miss. Two other seeds are going to the ACC and Group of Five winners, which leaves four at-large spots that are up for debate entering Tuesday night.Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama were ranked in the Nos. 8, 9 and 10 spots last week, while BYU and Miami were essentially placeholders at Nos. 11 and 12. Those seeds will go to the final two conference champions, leaving the No. 10 seed to receive the final, coveted at-large selection.The great Texas debateThe win over Texas A&M gave the Longhorns three victories this season over opponents ranked inside the current top 15 of the playoff rankings, but the other side to that equation? The losses. While the committee could justify putting Texas as the first three-loss, at-large team to ever make the field, who the Longhorns would replace as a result is the bigger dilemma.Then, there's the game control metric. The Longhorns suffered a 25-point loss at Georgia this month and lost to a 3-9 Florida team in October whose only win since came against Mississippi State, a team Texas beat after falling behind by 17 points in the fourth quarter. Kentucky took the Longhorns to overtime, while Arkansas piled up 512 yards of total offense and 37 points against Texas last week. The Razorbacks finished 2-10 and winless in SEC play this season.And what will be particularly difficult to swallow for the Longhorns is the fact there's potentially four programs from the state of Texas that will make the field without one of them being college football's preseason No. 1.Elsewhere, more than a dozen teams with five wins entering Saturday needed a victory to reach bowl eligibility, and only seven managed to do so: Penn State, Kansas State, Army, Texas State, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Georgia Southern and Washington State. We're expecting Missouri State (7-5) and Delaware (6-6) to fill the final two spots after transitioning from FCS this season.Here's a glance at how we see the final 12-team CFP bracket unfolding next month coming out of rivalry weekend:College Football Playoff Quarterfinals DateGame / LocationProjectionJan. 1 Rose BowlPasadena, Calif.(1) Ohio State vs. (8/9) WinnerJan. 1 Sugar BowlNew Orleans, La.(2) Georgia vs. (7/10) WinnerJan. 1 Orange BowlMiami, Fla.(3) Indiana vs. (6/11) WinnerDec. 31 Cotton BowlArlington, Texas(4) Texas Tech vs. (5/12) WinnerFirst roundDate LocationProjectionWinner facesDec. 19 or 20Oklahoma Memorial StadiumNorman, Okla.(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Notre Dame(1) Ohio StateDec. 19 or 20Vaught-Hemingway StadiumOxford, Miss.(7) Ole Miss vs. (10) Alabama(2) GeorgiaDec. 19 or 20Autzen StadiumEugene, Ore.(6) Oregon vs. (11) Virginia(3) IndianaDec. 19 or 20Kyle FieldCollege Station, Texas(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) North Texas(4) Texas TechDon't see your team? Check out Brad Crawford's complete bowl projections.Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown1. Ohio State (projected Big Ten champion): Now that the losing skid at Michigan is over and the Buckeyes are playing for the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Championship Game, the "second season" for Ryan Day's program begins now. And by the time Ohio State opens its playoff run in the second round next month, quarterback Julian Sayin could be a Heisman winner.2. Georgia (projected SEC champion): Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs have a chance to avenge a previous loss to Alabama this season in Atlanta to secure a top-four seed and opening-round bye. Texas A&M's loss to Texas opened the door for Georgia, who battled through a physical affair with Georgia Tech and will try to make it 11 wins before the final bracket's determined next weekend.3. Indiana: As our projected Big Ten runner-up, the Hoosiers would likely get the No. 3 seed at 12-1 overall. The only thing that matters for Indiana from this point is its path to a national championship game appearance once the conference title is decided next weekend. Ohio State could potentially have a tougher draw with a second-round showdown with Notre Dame than Indiana, who may face a foe it's familiar with in Oregon.4. Texas Tech (projected Big 12 champion): The Red Raiders played like a team with a top-four seed to secure during rivalry weekend, humiliating West Virginia on the road with another crushing performance defensively. Ranked fourth in game control coming into the regular-season finale, Texas Tech scored touchdowns on its first three possessions. A win over BYU next week locks in a first-round bye, and that's our expectation.5. Texas A&M: That one stings. Unblemished no more after the road hiccup at Texas, not only do the Aggies miss out on a chance at winning their first SEC title, but Texas A&M likely misses a first-round layoff after being ranked inside the top four of every playoff ranking up to this point. A consolation prize for the loss to Texas will be a sold-out, crazy environment inside Kyle Field next month.6. Oregon: Behind a couple touchdowns from Dante Moore in a gritty road performance at quarterback, the Ducks solidified a first-round home game inside Autzen Stadium with a nice finish at Washington. Oregon's going back to the playoff under Dan Lanning and will try and make good on last year's early exit, this time making the field as an at-large selection. Oregon will be the Big Ten's third selection inside the top six.7. Ole Miss: Committee chair Hunter Yurachek acknowledged that a Lane Kiffin departure would be another data point that could be used during final deliberations, but when the Rebels have a sparkling head-to-head win at Oklahoma on their resume, would they really be dropped behind the Sooners -- or worse -- at the final hour? We don't think so. Not the way these two teams are playing down the stretch.8. Oklahoma: This team's been taking on water since the win over Alabama due to anemic play offensively, but when you're as good on the other side of the football as Brent Venables' bunch, you live to fight another day. Oklahoma's rugged win over LSU on Saturday should secure a home playoff game for the Sooners, but John Mateer and Co. will need to be more explosive next month to have a shot at advancing. The Sooners have now won 89 straight games when holding an opponent under 21 points.9. Notre Dame: With Saturday's result at Stanford, those can argue against the Fighting Irish in favor of Miami until the cows come home -- the committee's not hearing it. They've slotted Notre Dame in an entirely different tier -- or pod -- since their first set of rankings earlier this month, and there's not a team in college football hotter than this group exiting the regular season. Notre Dame and Oklahoma are battling for that final home game designation.10. Alabama: The final at-large spot will be up for debate between Alabama, Miami (10-2), BYU (11-2 if Cougars lose to Texas Tech) and Texas (9-3), but we're expecting the Crimson Tide to get the nod. They would finish with three losses if they're unable to beat Georgia for a second time this season in next weekend's SEC Championship Game. Alabama has two wins over teams inside the committee's top 25 entering rivalry weekend (Georgia, Oklahoma) and won its playoff elimination game Saturday night at Auburn in the final moments to clinch a spot in Atlanta.11. Virginia: By virtue of a win over Virginia Tech and SMU's upset loss to Cal, the Cavaliers will play five-loss Duke in the ACC Championship Game. There's a scenario in which a Blue Devils victory in Charlotte could push projected Sun Belt champion James Madison to the bracket and keep the ACC out. Pure chaos.12. North Texas: The fourth and final team from Texas in the playoff will be the Mean Green after they take out Tulane in the American Championship Game next weekend. Tulane is the only Group of Five team ranked by the committee thus far, but we're sticking with Drew Mestemaker and red-hot North Texas to take out the Green Wave for the auto-bid. North Texas coach Eric Morris took the Oklahoma State job earlier this week but will stay with this team through conference championship weekend and the playoff -- if they get there.