IEA sees slower move to clean fuels, higher fossil fuel use until 2050

LONDON, U.K.: Global demand for oil and gas could keep rising until 2050, the International Energy Agency said on November 12. This marks a shift from its earlier view that the world would soon move quickly to cleaner energy sources — and suggests that global climate goals may not be met. The IEA, which advises Western governments on energy security, has faced U.S. pressure in recent years to shift its focus from clean energy to supporting oil and gas production. President Donald Trump has urged American companies to expand drilling. Under former President Joe Biden, the IEA had predicted that oil demand would peak before 2030 and said that no new investment in oil and gas would be needed if the world wanted to meet its climate targets. However, Trump's Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, dismissed those earlier projections as "nonsensical." The IEA is funded by its member countries, with the U.S. as the most significant contributor. Its reports influence energy policies worldwide. In its 2025 World Energy Outlook, the IEA said that under current policies — meaning only existing government actions are counted — oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, about 13 percent higher than in 2024. Global energy demand could rise by 15 percent by 2035, equal to about 90 exajoules more energy use. The IEA last used this "current policies" model in 2019. Since 2020, it has focused on cleaner energy pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The agency said it wanted to include new climate targets from countries for 2031–2035, but too few had submitted plans. In another model — the stated policies scenario, which includes planned but not yet enforced policies — oil demand is expected to peak around 2030. The IEA emphasized that these are scenarios, not firm forecasts. The report also found that investments in new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects have jumped in 2025. About 300 billion cubic meters of new annual LNG capacity could be operating by 2030 — a 50 percent increase in global supply. Under the current policy scenario, the global LNG market could grow from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and 1,020 bcm in 2050, driven by power demand from data centers and artificial intelligence. Spending on data centers is expected to reach US$580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion spent annually on oil supply, the IEA said. The report also includes a net-zero scenario that outlines a path to cutting global energy emissions to zero by 2050. However, it warns that even with all current efforts, the world is likely to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit agreed at the 2015 Paris climate talks. Temperatures would only fall again under the net-zero scenario — and only if large-scale carbon removal technologies are used.