Nobel peace prize officials investigate surge in bets for winner

Norwegian officials who oversee the Nobel peace prize are investigating suspicious online betting for this year’s winner that suggests a rare leak from the secretive committee that hands out the prize. Online bets for the Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado spiked on the Polymarket gambling site shortly after midnight on Thursday, Norwegian time, according to the information on its website. The head of the Nobel Institute, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told Bloomberg: “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.” Hours later, Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel peace prize for her democratic activism in the authoritarian nation, marking the first time a Venezuelan has received the coveted honour. She was informed of her win at 10.50 Norwegian time by Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute. But two Norwegian newspapers, Aftenposten and Finansavisen, later found unusual movement in the online betting markets ahead of the announcement. Until Thursday, Yulia Navalnaya, the economist and widow of former Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, led the odds against all other prospective winners on Polymarket. The site has become a popular place in recent years to wager on political events, with the vast majority of bets focused on American politics. Many of the more niche wagers rely on rumors and speculation skewing the odds that determine a payout. Shortly after midnight Norwegian time, Machado’s odds were 3.75% on the site, trailing both Navalnaya and Donald Trump. Less than two hours later, however, they had surged to 72.8%, suggesting a surge of bets on her victory. In one case, a user won more than US$65,000 placing a bet on Machado: another winner used a profile which was created the same day the bet was placed, according to Finansavisen. Jørgen Watne Frydnes, head of the Nobel committee, told Aftenposten the group “tends to be very good at keeping secrets”, citing a highly secretive process over the last half-century. Harpviken told Aftenposten it was “too early to be certain” if the winner had been leaked, but said he expected an investigation to be launched.