The Wallabies were meant to prove they’re back. But instead they have gone backwards

Three weeks ago, Australia arrived in Europe self-assured and quietly confident of taking a few prized scalps. And why not? They had come within a single refereeing call at the breakdown of claiming a British & Irish Lions series win. They had hammered the world champion Springboks in Johannesburg. They had shown great chutzpah to beat Argentina after the hooter and they still carried the glow of last November’s win over England. This was a side developing shape and steel, a side capable of the sublime, a side beginning to coax long-dormant fans back to the code while tempting home several stars who had crossed to rugby league. This tour was supposed to confirm, unequivocally, that the Wallabies were back. Instead, they’ve gone backwards after a sorry performance against Ireland in Dublin where they received a 46–19 shellacking that still managed to flatter them on the scoreboard. Related: Best Australian player was wearing Irish colours, Wallabies coach says after heavy loss This result also confirms their status as a B-tier rugby team. No matter what happens against France in Paris next week, they will leave Europe ranked outside the top six on World Rugby’s charts, consigning them to the second pot when the 2027 World Cup draw takes place next month. The implications are stark: if the Wallabies want to reach the latter stages of their own tournament on home soil, they will have to knock over one of the giants, a task that, on current evidence, feels well beyond them. Too often in Dublin they looked like a side searching for someone else to take control: to claim the high ball, to marshal the defensive line, to calm a frantic moment, to dictate where the next five minutes should be played. Ireland didn’t overwhelm them physically or tactically. They simply leaned on the most obvious pressure points – contestable kicks, structured phase play, tempo changes – and trusted that the Wallabies would crack first. And they did. Australia coughed up possession from their own lineout on six occasions – four times inside Ireland’s 22. Their ineptitude under the high ball has only worsened after similar struggles against England and Italy over the past fortnight. They’re playing like a team that has run out of energy, which is deeply concerning given they should be entering a new chapter as they gear up for that home World Cup in less than two years. What on earth are they going to do between now and then? First things first: they need to back someone, anyone, at fly-half. James O’Connor is a supremely gifted athlete. He looks the part too. His socks are down around his ankles, his angular jaw barks instructions to teammates as his sinewy arms wave about. But he is not the metronome this team requires. His inability to marshal the backline into something resembling a cohesive structure was telling. Not that this is O’Connor’s fault. In an ideal world, the 35-year-old who made his Test debut 17 years ago would have been watching this match like the rest of us. But Tane Edmed is far from the finished product, and Carter Gordon, while rediscovering his groove in the code, is sidelined with a neck injury. What Schmidt would give for a player like South Africa’s Handré Pollard or England’s George Ford, two fly-halves who have copped their share of criticism for lacking razzle-dazzle, yet provide the one quality Australia are crying out for: control. Australia already have plenty of excitement and instinct and broken-field brilliance. What they’re missing is a first receiver who dictates the tempo of a Test match, who can put his studs on the ball and slow things down, who can take the sting out of the contest rather than add to the chaos. Under Schmidt, Australian rugby is steadier, but still too dependent on the sting. For Schmidt, this is a version of José Mourinho’s undersized blanket problem: tug the defence into shape and the attack loses fluidity; focus on structure and the spark disappears; lean on spark and the control evaporates. Every time Australia cover one area, another is left exposed. The cruel irony is that this team’s ceiling remains genuinely high. But the floor keeps dropping out from beneath them. They don’t need to reinvent themselves, they need reliability, leadership and a spine that doesn’t buckle under pressure. Related: The Socceroos brought me so much heartbreak. Then 20 years ago against Uruguay, it all changed | Declan Fay The tour was supposed to be a statement of intent. Instead, it has served as a sobering reminder of how far behind the leading nations Australia still sit. Schmidt will speak of learnings and combinations and growth – and some of that will be true – but he knows better than anyone that this team requires more than incremental improvement. It needs identity, clarity and, crucially, a fly-half who can turn talent into Test-match shape. In the end it’s the clarity that will hurt most. Australia are not on the cusp of something; they are adrift from it. The raw materials are there, but the polish, the precision, the ruthlessness that defines the very best sides remains absent.