Will Roku Stock Rally On Its Upcoming Earnings?

Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Getty Images Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is anticipated to announce its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. Revenues are predicted to approximate $1.2 billion, reflecting a 13% increase year over year, according to consensus estimates, while earnings are expected to be about $0.09 per share. This growth is likely fueled by robust performance in Roku’s platform operations, especially in its advertising division, which has been gradually expanding. Throughout the last two years, Roku has enhanced its integrations with third-party partners and demand-side platforms (DSPs) to more effectively meet the needs of enterprise advertisers, while the introduction of Roku Ads Manager has attracted small and mid-sized businesses. Furthermore, Roku’s acquisition of Frndly, a subscription-based streaming service, in May 2025, is also anticipated to contribute to growth. The company currently boasts a market capitalization of $14 billion. In the past twelve months, revenue was $4.4 billion, and the company posted operational losses amounting to $-156 million alongside a net income of $-62 million. While much will hinge on how the results compare with consensus and expectations, gaining insights from historical patterns could favor event-driven traders. There are two approaches to accomplish this: grasp the historical odds and arrange your position ahead of the earnings announcement, or examine the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjust your position after the earnings are announced. With that in mind, if you are looking for potential gains with lower volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – it has surpassed the S&P 500 and yielded returns greater than 105% since its inception. Roku's Historical Probability of Positive Post-Earnings Returns Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: MORE FOR YOU In the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points documented, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. Thus, positive 1D returns were observed approximately 45% of the time. However, this percentage falls to 42% when evaluating data from the last three years instead of five. The median of the 9 positive returns is 12%, while the median of the 11 negative returns stands at -10% Additional data on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are compiled along with the statistics in the table below. 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively lower-risk strategy (though potentially ineffective if the correlation is weak) involves analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying the pair with the highest correlation, and executing the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader could take a "long" position for the next five days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Below is some correlation data based on a five-year and a more recent three-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D signifies the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy which has surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a compilation of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering considerable returns for investors. Alternatively, if you’re seeking upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock like Roku, take a look at the High Quality portfolio, which has exceeded the S&P and achieved returns of over 105% since its inception. Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions

Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is anticipated to announce its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. Revenues are predicted to approximate $1.2 billion, reflecting a 13% increase year over year, according to consensus estimates, while earnings are expected to be about $0.09 per share. This growth is likely fueled by robust performance in Roku’s platform operations, especially in its advertising division, which has been gradually expanding. Throughout the last two years, Roku has enhanced its integrations with third-party partners and demand-side platforms (DSPs) to more effectively meet the needs of enterprise advertisers, while the introduction of Roku Ads Manager has attracted small and mid-sized businesses. Furthermore, Roku’s acquisition of Frndly, a subscription-based streaming service, in May 2025, is also anticipated to contribute to growth.

The company currently boasts a market capitalization of $14 billion. In the past twelve months, revenue was $4.4 billion, and the company posted operational losses amounting to $-156 million alongside a net income of $-62 million. While much will hinge on how the results compare with consensus and expectations, gaining insights from historical patterns could favor event-driven traders.

There are two approaches to accomplish this: grasp the historical odds and arrange your position ahead of the earnings announcement, or examine the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjust your position after the earnings are announced. With that in mind, if you are looking for potential gains with lower volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – it has surpassed the S&P 500 and yielded returns greater than 105% since its inception.

Roku's Historical Probability of Positive Post-Earnings Returns

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

MORE FOR YOU

In the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points documented, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. Thus, positive 1D returns were observed approximately 45% of the time.

However, this percentage falls to 42% when evaluating data from the last three years instead of five.

The median of the 9 positive returns is 12%, while the median of the 11 negative returns stands at -10%

Additional data on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are compiled along with the statistics in the table below.

1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk strategy (though potentially ineffective if the correlation is weak) involves analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying the pair with the highest correlation, and executing the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader could take a "long" position for the next five days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Below is some correlation data based on a five-year and a more recent three-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D signifies the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy which has surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a compilation of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering considerable returns for investors. Alternatively, if you’re seeking upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock like Roku, take a look at the High Quality portfolio, which has exceeded the S&P and achieved returns of over 105% since its inception.

Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions