Cop30 live: Scientists warn countries must act decisively to protect people and life or risk ‘suffering for billions’

8.53pm GMT Dharna Noor here on the bad news beat. Against the backdrop of Cop30 in Brazil, Donald Trump is proposing to axe protections for some animals and plants under the Endangered Species Act. The administration, which have repeatedly called the climate crisis a “hoax” but have claimed they aim to protect nature, argues that current protections for endangered species are hampering economic development. But environmental advocates say the proposal could send some of America’s most iconic plants and wildlife into a tailspin toward extinction. That includes monarch butterflies, sea turtles, and manatees. Here’s a take from the executive director of the US-based green group Sierra Club, Loren Blackford: “The Trump administration is stopping at nothing in its quest to put corporate polluters over people, wildlife and the environment. After failing in their latest attempt to sell off our public lands, they now want to enable the wholesale destruction of wildlife habitat for a short-term boost in polluters’ bottom lines. “These regulations attempt to undermine implementation of one of America’s bedrock environmental laws, and they could seal the fate of animals that, without these protections, would disappear from the earth. For decades, the Sierra Club has worked to defend this critical law, and we will use every tool at our disposal to stop this reckless administration from selling out our wildlife and wild places to corporations and billionaires.” 8.43pm GMT As the US refuses to send a delegation to Cop for the first time this year, a new analysis from the Guardian and non-profit newsroom ProPublica found that Donald Trump’s anti-climate agenda could result in 1.3m more deaths globally. The story is from the always-excellent Sharon Lerner. Here’s a taste of the new piece: New advances in environmental science are providing a detailed understanding of the human cost of the Trump administration’s approach to climate. Increasing temperatures are already killing enormous numbers of people. A ProPublica and Guardian analysis that draws on sophisticated modeling by independent researchers found that Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda of expanding fossil fuels and decimating efforts to reduce emissions will add substantially to that toll, with the vast majority of deaths occurring outside the US. Most of the people expected to die from soaring temperatures in the coming decades live in poor, hot countries in Africa and south Asia, according to recent research. Many of these countries emitted relatively little of the pollution that causes climate crisis – and are least prepared to cope with the increasing heat. ProPublica and the Guardian’s analysis shows that extra greenhouse gases released in the next decade as a result of the president’s policies are expected to lead to as many as 1.3 million more temperature-related deaths worldwide as the earth heats in the 80 years after 2035. The actual number of people who die from heat will be much higher, but a warming planet will also result in fewer deaths from cold. Read it in full. Related: Trump’s anti-climate agenda could result in 1.3m more deaths globally, analysis finds 8.28pm GMT There is no climate justice without human rights. Astrid Puentes Riaño, the UN Special Rapporteur on the human right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment, has put together a handy list for negotiators on why they must under international law centre climate action around the protection of human rights and nature. “Negotiations remain highly technical and focused on economic interests, but human rights and the right to a healthy environment mean putting people and nature at the centre,” Puentes told my colleague Nina Lakhani. “The International Court of Justice (ICJ) categorically concluded that the right to a healthy environment is a precondition and essential for the guarantee of all human rights, and fundamental for States to effectively fulfill other human rights. These obligations are non-negotiable.” Here’s more from Puentes’ key human rights takeaways: • The human right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment, recognised by the UN and 165 States, includes breathing clean air, having a safe climate, healthy biodiversity and ecosystems, enjoying safe and sustainable food, safe and sufficient water and non-toxic spaces, as well as the right to access information, public participation and access to justice. • The ICJ clearly concludes that States have an obligation to protect the environment and the climate system - and to implement measures with stringent due diligence to avoid further impacts. The obligation applies to all States, regardless of whether or not they are party to climate treaties. • The Advisory Opinions of the ICJ, the Tribunal for the Law of the Sea and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights clarify doubts regarding the legal obligations of States to address the climate crisis. Issues clarified therein should not continue to be opened up in negotiations. • It is imperative that the agreements at COP30, including those on just transition, adaptation and financing, move forward on the basis of international law. In order to take concrete action, it is essential to use the best available science provided by the IPCCC, as well as past agreements, including the recognition that fossil fuels are the root of the problem. We cannot afford to continue endless discussions on agreed points while millions of people continue to suffer from climate change, losing their lives, families and territories, with no solution in sight, including entire states in a situation of vulnerability due to circumstances for which they are not responsible. Updated at 8.31pm GMT 8.28pm GMT 'Already facing danger': Scientists involved in Cop prep for the first time Planetary scientists have warned President Lula today that Cop30 must act decisively because the world is at a crossroads: protect people and life or the fossil fuel industry, writes my colleague Jon Watts. “We are already facing danger,” they warn in a statement on the state of negotiations, which take place against a backdrop of “suffering for billions of people and rapidly approaching tipping points in the Amazon and the Tropical Coral Reef systems and many others.” Emissions must start to bend next year, they say, and then continue to fall steadily in the decades ahead: “We need to start, now, to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil-fuels, by at least 5% per year. This must happen in order to have a chance to avoid unmanageable and extremely costly climate impacts affecting all people in the world.” The signatories include several of the world’s leading authorities on planetary science, forests and oceans: Carlos Nobre from Science Panel of the Amazon; Fatima Denton of United Nations University; Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Marina Hirota; Instituto Serrapilheira; Paulo Artaxo - Universidade de São Paulo; Piers Forster of the University of Leeds; and Thelma Krug, who is Chair of the COP30 Science Council. They say this is the first time that a COP presidency has involved scientists in the preparation of a climate conference and then provided a pavilion for them to share their findings and opportunities to provide updates to the negotiators. Bearing in mind the gravity of the threat, their latest report says action needs to be accelerated: “We need to be as close as possible to absolute zero fossil fuel emissions by 2040, the latest by 2045. This means globally no new fossil fuel investments, removing all subsidies from fossil fuels and a global plan on how to phase in renewable and low-carbon energy sources in a just way, and phase out fossil fuels quickly.” They say finance - from developed to developing countries - is essential for the credibility of the Paris Agreement. “It must be predictable, grant-based and consistent with a just transition and equity,” they say. “Without scaling and reforming climate finance, developing countries cannot plan, cannot invest and cannot deliver the transitions needed for a shared survival.” This is the first climate conference in the Amazon rainforest, which used to be one of the planet’s great climate stabilisers. The scientists warn this can no longer be taken for granted: “The only reason we can have an orderly phase out of fossil fuels is because we assume forests will continue to be a major carbon sink. Unfortunately we have increasing evidence that forests are turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. This happens because forests are vulnerable to climate change causing more frequent and intense droughts, fires, heatwaves and land use conversion.” To address this, they stress that Cop30 also needs to produce a roadmap that concurrently ends deforestation and phases out fossil fuels. “The Roadmap on ending deforestation must include financial support, capacity building and robust monitoring. Forest protection cannot be used as offsets. Standing forests cannot be an excuse to keep burning fossil fuels.“ 8.06pm GMT Some American activists who made the long journey to Cop30 are aiming to spotlight New York City’s mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, who has much of the US left swooning. The 34-year-old democratic socialist defeated centrist Andrew Cuomo in the mayoral general election earlier this month — a win that supporters say signals interest in bold climate policy. A self-described ecosocialist, Mamdani was elected to the New York state legislature in 2020. He has been a vocal backer of policies to phase fossil fuels out of buildings and expand publicly-owned renewable energy, and has supported efforts to stop the buildout of a gas pipeline. “Zohran’s leadership is inspiring and hopeful to us,” said Jamie Minden, executive director of youth-led climate organization Zero Hour. “He is leading by example, showing how elected officials in the United States must show up for our communities, because we are balanced on the knife’s edge of falling into a future of undisputed climate chaos.” Data show New York City is the third-most emitting city on the planet. But on the campaign trail, Mamdani focused primarily on affordability issues. His environmental policies highlighted the ability to slash planet-warming pollution while lowering costs for New Yorkers. “Another future is possible for our country and for the world, and it starts by following New York City Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani’s lead,” said said Keanu Arpels-Josiah, 20, lead organizer with youth-led climate group Fridays For Future NYC & USA. Check out this story I wrote over the summer about how Mamdani connects climate policy to affordability at the link below. Related: How Mamdani connects climate policy to his affordability agenda as he runs for New York mayor Updated at 8.34pm GMT 7.49pm GMT From my colleague Damian Carrington:Mary Robinson has been working on human rights and climate for almost 30 years. The former president of Ireland has again brought her customary moral clarity to a UN climate Cop, making the case for a phase out of fossil fuels. “People already suffering from climate change need a phase out. The continuing increase in extreme weather events shows the alarming future ahead of us. And without it, millions more people will migrate, and some countries will cease to exist. “Scientists urge a phase out. They can see we are approaching planetary tipping points from which there is no return. “International law demands a phase out. July’s ICJ opinion is clear that countries have a legal responsibility to regulate the production, consumption and subsidy of fossil fuels to prevent foreseeable harm. “The market expects a phase out. Investment in renewable energy is now double investment in fossil fuels. “As Cop30 negotiations reach their climax, we call on all people who want a cleaner, healthier, safer future to make their voices heard - before it is too late.” 7.31pm GMT Germany has managed to annoy the Cop30 hosts after Chancellor Friedrich Merz contrasted his own country, which he described as “one of the most beautiful in the world”, with Brazil, writes my colleague Ajit Niranjan. “Last week, I asked some journalists who were with me in Brazil: Who among you would like to stay here?” Merz said at a trade conference upon returning to Berlin last week. “No one raised their hand. Everyone was delighted to be back in Germany - and above all, to have left that place.” A charitable reading of the statement in German media was that the gaffe-prone multimillionaire and former Blackrock board member was reminding Germans that they live good lives by global standards, despite serious challenges at home. In Brazil, where the remarks have gone viral in recent days, the comment has been interpreted as an “arrogant” swipe, drawing condemnation from the mayor of Belém and the governor of Pará state. German negotiators and observers have since strived to smooth things over - praising the country that is hosting them for two weeks - while Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hit back in softer terms. “[Merz] should have gone to a bar in Belém, he should have danced, he should have tried the food in the state of Pará,” he said. “Because then he would have realized that Berlin doesn’t even provide him with 10% of the quality of life that the state of Pará and the city of Belém offer.” A German government spokesperson on Wednesday sought to take the sting out of the comment. “When the Chancellor says we live in one of the most beautiful countries in the world, tbat does not mean other countries are not also very beautiful,” he said. 7.12pm GMT Cop30 is a place for Paris Agreement parties to flesh out their climate plans. But it is also a bit of a trade show for countries, trade groups, and NGOs. My intrepid colleague Damian Carrington, the Guardian environment editor, is continuing his analysis (read a previous installment here) of the pavilions at the climate talks. Here are his latest assessments: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Huge! Like the enormous rainforest it hosts. Real plants too. Top job. World Nuclear Association: Barren, empty. Like a fall-out zone. Brazil: Fabulous forest vibe. But inexplicably no coffee stand. Did the UK pavilion steal it? Japan: Like an Apple store, gadgets out on display. Cool, but fancy tech isn’t going to save us. Sweden: Decent effort. But seriously, couldn’t Ikea have provided some funky furniture? Planetary sciences: Bravo! A rare pavilion that is just lovely to look at. Unlike the climate science itself which gets uglier each day. Finland: Uninspiring. But gets a mention for an excellent slogan: “Cool by Nature” 6.43pm GMT Brazil's president Lula tries to use his charm to push negotiations forward President Lula has spent late morning and early afternoon at Cop30 looking for common ground, listening to concerns, and trying to use his charm to push forward a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels and end deforestation, reports Jon Watts from Brazil. After flying into Belém around 10:20am, the Brazilian leader considered strategy with senior members of his negotiating team, including COP president André Corrêa do Lago and environment minister Marina Silva. Emerging nations were his first priority in meeting with other delegations, including Brics allies China, India and Indonesia. It is unclear as yet how that gathering went, but this huge grouping will be one of the keys to success. Another is The European Union, whose chief delegate - from Portugal - was invited in for another meeting. Brazil is hoping the EU will lead in rallying the climate funds needed to unlock an agreement in Belém. After a private lunch, Lula was scheduled to meet with negotiators representing the Africa Group and Small Island States, who are most affected by the climate crisis and are often seen as its moral persuaders. Following this, the Brazilian president is due to talk to representatives of indigenous groups and civil society. Among the achievements of this COP is a greater-than-ever representation of forest peoples inside the negotiating area and the announcement of land demarcation for ten indigenous territories. https://cop30.br/en/news-about-cop30/government-of-brazil-advances-in-the-demarcation-of-ten-indigenous-lands Rumours have flown around all day that Lula might call a plenary and gauge support for a roadmap. But this is not on his schedule. Later, there will be talks with business leaders. And hopefully, at the end of the day, a press briefing. We will keep you updated! Updated at 8.33pm GMT 6.26pm GMT Cop president to the Guardian: 'Not many countries are indifferent' to fossil fuel phaseout Oil-producing countries need to acknowledge the rise of clean energy, and rich countries will have to provide more assurances on finance if the chasm between negotiating nations at Cop30 is to be bridged, the president of the summit said in an exclusive interview with the Guardian’s Fiona Harvey. André Corrêa do Lago, the veteran Brazilian climate diplomat in charge of the talks, said: “Developing countries are looking at developed countries as countries that could be much more generous in supporting them to be more sustainable. They could offer more finance, and technology.” This does not necessarily involve an increase in the headline amount of money to be provided directly from rich world coffers, set last year at $300bn (£230bn) a year by 2035. It could also come from better use of existing finance, Corrêa do Lago added. “You don’t need more money. You don’t need public money from developed countries. You need to leverage more dollars from each dollar that you have,” he said. “They can offer not only more resources in banks, in multinational development banks; put more public money in funds like the green climate fund or the global environment facility, but there are an increasing number of alternatives like debt-for-nature swaps and other [instruments].” The divide over the “transition away from fossil fuels” has emerged as the biggest faultline at the Cop30 talks, now entering their final days in Brazil. On Tuesday, more than 80 countries demanded a roadmap to the transition as a key outcome of the summit, in what some campaigners described as a “turning point”. But they are likely to face stiff opposition from petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and others who are dependent on fossil fuels. Decisions at “conference of the party” meetings require consensus, so even a handful of states could scupper the roadmap proposal. “Not only is [the divide] binary, but it is two extremes: one very favourable [to a phaseout] the other very unfavourable. There aren’t many countries that are indifferent,” said Corrêa do Lago. Check out the full story from my colleagues Fiona Harvey and Jon Watts: Related: Divide over fossil fuels phaseout can be bridged, Cop30 president says On Wednesday, Carbon Brief revealed the full list of 82 countries supporting some sort of roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels.More than 20 are backing a declaration on the transition being circulated by Colombia. Latin American countries and the Environmental Integrity Group (Mexico, Liechtenstein, Monaco, the Republic of Korea, Switzerland, and Georgia) back a roadmap in official submissions to the UN climate body. The EU, minus Poland and Italy, have also backed the roadmap and there have been supportive public statements from small island states, as well as the UK, Mongolia and others. 6.08pm GMT Climate compensation for war-related harms is happening. Ukraine will claim $43bn in climate compensation from Russia to help fund a green-recovery and rebuild, making it the first country ever to seek reparations for greenhouse gases generated during an unlawful war, writes my colleague Nina Lakhani. The figure is based on research by the European funded Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War (IGGAW) which found that Russia’s invasion has generated 237m tonnes of carbon dioxide - the equivalent of the annual greenhouse gas emissions of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia combined. The emissions come from direct military activity, wartime fires, strikes on energy infrastructure, the displacement of civilians and commercial aviation, and the vast quantities of steel and concrete needed for reconstruction. Around 3m hectares of Ukrainian forests have been destroyed or damaged by war, reducing its greenhouse gas absorption capacity by 1.7m tonnes per year. Pavlo Kartashov, deputy minister for economy, environment and agriculture, said at Cop30 on Tuesday: “In many ways, Russia is fighting a dirty war and our climate is also a casualty. The vast amounts of fuel burned, forests scorched, buildings destroyed, concrete and steel used, all these things are essentially ‘conflict carbon’ and have a considerable climate cost. We in Ukraine face brutality directly, but the climate shockwaves of this aggression will be felt well beyond our borders and into the future.” There’s mounting pressure for states to be held accountable for the vast quantity of planet-warming gases generated by military infrastructure and operations. Even before war-related activities are counted, militaries account for almost 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions annually – more than every single country except the US, China and India. Yet states are not required to include these in their reporting to the UNFCCC. In 2022, the UN general assembly decided that Russia should compensate Ukraine, prompting the Council of Europe to establish a damages mechanism. Ukraine plans to submit its claim in early 2026, which will be supported by the historic ICJ climate ruling from July which confirmed that states committing illegal acts resulting in climate harms can be held accountable, with compensation being one possible form of legal redress. Ukraine has pledged to align its rebuild with EU climate policies. Earlier this year, the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced €265m in funding for Ukrainian energy security and “green transition”. Europe’s support for Russian accountability stands in contrast to its silence over Israel’s destruction of Gaza. In May. the Guardian reported that the long-term climate cost of destroying, clearing and rebuilding Gaza could top 31m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) - greater than the combined 2023 annual greenhouse gases emitted by Costa Rica and Estonia. Earlier this month, an Italian journalist was fired by his news agency after asking a European Commission official why Israel shouldn’t pay for the reconstruction in Gaza. 5.48pm GMT 'This is a power struggle': Susana Muhamad on fossil fuel phaseout and Cop30 Coal, oil, and gas account for 90% of planet-warming carbon pollution, but UN climate negotiations have become a “huge convention” focused on “defending fossil fuels,” according to Colombia’s former environment minister Susana Muhamad. “Fossil fuels are in the judgement chair, and always winning the battle,” she told my colleague Jon Watts and I. Two years ago at Cop28 in Dubai, countries agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels to meet the goals of the Paris agreement — a pledge Muhamad helped secure. But since then, the use of coal, oil, and gas has slowly ticked up. “The scale of the problem is not being addressed,” Muhamad said. She is aiming to take on the issue by promoting the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, a proposed agreement which Colombia and 16 other countries have endorsed. She has just become a special envoy for the treaty, she shared exclusively with the Guardian, a role she will use to help sort out the thorny realities of kicking planet-warming fuels. Muhamad has seen those challenges firsthand. Shortly after the 2023 climate talks, Colombia pledged to halt all new exploration contracts for fossil fuel. A key obstacle, she said, has been securing the “fiscal capacity to invest in the transition” and pay off debt burdens without fossil fuel profits. “Colombian oil is not the best oil: It’s heavy, it’s expensive to extract, we don’t have huge reserves,” she said. “But still, we are so dependent on it.” Then, there are the political challenges. “The political debate becomes, ‘let’s stick what is what we know, but sticking to what we know will be an economic disaster,” she said. Effective climate action, she said, requires an understanding that phasing out fossil fuels requires a massive social and economic transition. “The non-proliferation treaty intends to put the economic question at the center,” she said. In April, Colombia will host the first-ever international conference on the phase out of fossil fuels, it recently announced. (At Cop30, the country is also circulating a declaration, separate from the UN climate process, to draw political attention to a plan to phase out fossil fuels.) Not just any phaseout will do, Muhamad said. She was critical of those who look for a solution only in markets and technology, without looking at the question of justice.”Green capitalism”, she said, would continue “the logic of competition and dominance that always gives profit to some at the cost of others, and that will not work.” Muhamad has become a leading proponent of this progressive approach to climate action in recent years. Getting to this point required what she describes as a “journey through the system” motivated by “intellectual curiosity,” a refusal to swallow contradictions and a “compulsive” search for answers. After growing up in Bogotá in a family with Palestinian roots to living with mine workers in post-apartheid South Africa, she moved to Europe and worked for the oil giant Shell for five years, then moved into the human rights sphere before entering a left-wing party in Colombia. “All of that came to a conclusion, which is that this is a power struggle,” she said. “It has to be solved through politics.” Earlier this year, Muhamad stood as presidential candidate in her party’s primaries before stepping aside. Looking ahead to the election, she fears the United States may intervene to support the far right. “It’s going to be super nasty,” she predicted. Trump has already targeted Colombia’s left-wing government, Muhamad noted. Last month, the US imposed sanctions on Colombian president Gustavo Petro – allegedly for failing to stop drug cartels — after revoking Petro’s visa in September after he took part in pro-Palestinian protests in New York. “It’s like overthrowing democracy in Colombia,” Muhamad said. “What they’re trying to do is to put the symbol of the progressive movement in Colombia, which is Petro, and put him down with all sorts of lies.” Colombians are also among the 80 people who have been killed by the Trump administration’s twenty-plus strikes on boats which it alleges are carrying narcotics around Venezuela. On Monday, the US president suggested he could expand the US military strikes beyond Venezuela to targets on land in Colombia and Mexico. Trump’s threats on Colombia and Venezuela, Muhamad said, are driven by the desire to secure minerals and other resources. “There is something coming back. which is imperialism,” she said “They are the strongest military force and they can rip planet Earth for their interest.” It’s a sign of the threat of authoritarianism, she said, which comes from a “triangle of power”: the military industry, the technology sector, and fossil fuel capital. “That’s the struggle we have to battle against,” she said. Authoritarianism is a major problem for climate action, Muhamad said. Right-wing extremism is on the rise from “the masses of disengaged populations that have been left by neoliberalism” and are disillusioned with the broken promises of green capitalism, she said. The only answer, said Muhamad, is to foster a green economy that improves people’s lives. “Make them excited about the future, make them have a horizon of the future,” she said. “We have to push to be more radical and more democratic.” She said the recent incursions into the Cop30 conference center by some social movements, including Indigenous activists, were “great.” “It’s the people’s resistance that will move this, not the technocrats and the bureaucrats writing text,” she said. “We need the government, of course, but if it’s not from the bottom up, it’s going to be very difficult. The fossil capital will win. “The real change for climate has to be a revolution from the people.” Updated at 6.01pm GMT 5.39pm GMT Here is a reminder of the stakes being played for at Cop30, in a study published yesterday, writes my colleague Damian Carrington. If the 2003 European heatwave was repeated in today’s world, made 1.5C hotter by the burning of fossil fuels, it would kill 18,000 people in a single week. That death rate is comparable to peak COVID-19 mortality in Europe. “Mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat,” say the authors. We learned last mont that rising heat is already killing one person per minute. So as the delegates in Belém wrangle text and square brackets, they would do well to remember what it is all for: reducing human suffering. 5.22pm GMT Climate finance: ‘No transition on an empty tank’ From my colleague Jon Watts in Brazil:Industrialised nations need to step up on climate finance if there is to be a realistic roadmap to reduce the world’s fossil fuel dependency, the director of Power Shift Africa, Mohamed Adow said at Cop30 on Wednesday. “Developing countries cannot drive the energy transition with an empty tank,” he told a press conference organised by the Climate Action Network. “We need climate finance to help enable developing countries to be able to deliver on the transition.” “This transition must be fast, it must be fair, it must be financed. And that is a demand we have from developing countries.” Adow said the European Union needs to lead other developed countries to move in this area, particularly on adaptation finance where there were currently no clear details about how funds would be provided either in nationally determined contributions or in the main negotiating texts of the Belém climate. He said vulnerable countries needed to see a tripling of adaptation finance, reaching $120 bn exclusively from public grant-based sources. “Anything short of that is going to shortchange the poor and vulnerable countries of the world.” In Belém, he said developed nations were trying to limit discussions to criteria - measurements and indices - rather than delivery and quantity. “Coming from a pastoralist community, I must say that, you know, however many times we weigh a cow, we wouldn’t make it any fatter.” Another speaker at the event, Caroline Brouillette, the heat of the Planet Action Network Canada, said the UK, Australia, the EU and Canada were also blocking progress on the Belém Action Mechanism which is at the centre of efforts to achieve a just transition away from fossil fuels. “These are countries who are telling us they have come here to save and support multilateralism. But international cooperation requires more than words. It requires actual institutional support,” she said. “This is the litmus test of these talks.” By comparison, China was playing a positive role, said Shreeshan Venkatesh of Climate Action Network International. “There are many ways in which China has done way, way, way more than those developed countries have in its transitions, in its actions,” he said. “We expect China to also be a voice for developing countries, also make sure that they have equity and justice at the heart of everything that they do….There is no energy transition, there is no effective climate action without China’s support ..They are critical in maintaining the unity of the developing countries and I think they do that well.” Updated at 5.59pm GMT 5.05pm GMT Climate disinformation is one of the biggest barriers to climate action, writes environment editor Damian Carrington. As Eva Morel, at QuotaClimat, told him recently: “Facts are the foundation of trust, which in turn underpins law, and ultimately, democracy.” Here at Cop30, Elisa Morgera, UN special rapporteur on human rights and climate change, said, contrary to the Brazilian organiser’s slogan, “This is not yet the ‘Cop of Truth’.” “It is now well-established by independent research that there have been six decades of climate disinformation and obstruction by the fossil fuel industry, who had the knowledge that their activities would cause climate change and decided not to release that to the public. “Instead they invested in a very complex series of strategies to keep the public away from the truth about fossil fuels being the main cause of climate change. “Climate disinformation, in and of itself, can be a violation of human rights to information, to science and to participate in decision making processes. The six decades of climate disinformation mean all our efforts to protect human rights in the context of climate change have been undermined and continue to be undermined. “So states must first of all inform the public about the fossil fuel industry’s deliberate contributions to the planetary crisis and to climate disinformation. Second, we need to ensure in every space that we have access to accurate science based information on the need to de-fossilise our economies [and] make sure we ban fossil fuel advertising, including sponsorships.” (The city of The Hague and The Guardian, for example, have already done this.) “People also need to know also about the health impacts from the fossil fuel industry. Medical [experts] indicate that every single organ in our bodies is negatively harmed by fossil fuels. Even if we don’t live near fossil fuel operations, we are all harmed by air pollution and plastics in every part of our bodies.” The fact that it took 28 annual Cop climate meetings to mention fossil fuels is the result of those decades of disinformation and obstruction, Morgera said. Cops also attract large numbers of fossil fuel lobbyists. “Having much clearer rules of conflict of interest is crucial, similar to what we’ve seen at the World Health Organisation for the tobacco industry, because the playbooks are the same. This is not yet the ‘Cop of Truth’.” You can read more here in a recent interview with Morgera by my colleague Nina Lakhani, in which Morgera calls for criminal penalties against those peddling disinformation. Cop30 has seen 15 nations sign theDeclaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change, including Germany and Belgium. The UK has not signed up. “It is very disappointing,”said Bob Ward, at the London School of Economics. “The UK is currently being bombarded by climate misinformation from the US, including the interview with Donald Trump on GB News at the weekend when he claimed climate change is a hoax. The UK needs to take action against rampant climate misinformation.” Updated at 7.13pm GMT 4.50pm GMT Dharna Noor here, taking over from my colleague Matthew to bring you live updates from Cop30 in Belém! Stay tuned for more coverage from the ground. 4.23pm GMT Overnight we published a piece on the extent of lobbying by big agriculture at this Cop by my colleague Nina Lakhani. Related: More than 300 big agriculture lobbyists have taken part in Cop30, investigation finds Now we have had an update from Hazel Healy, editor in chief at DeSmog, which worked with the Guardian on the investigation. Writing from the Blue Zone at Cop30 Healy says: This year in Brazil, food lobbyists are everywhere. We see them on panels in the UN’s Blue Zones, they have a whole other tented, air conditioned parallel event space called the Agrizone just around the corner, and refurbished mansions scattered around the city are holding exclusive events. This lobby often goes under the radar. Pressure groups have purposefully neutral names like Protein Pact – an initiative of the Meat Institute, which represents 95 per cent of US livestock producers. (DeSmog knows who they are because we mapped all the groups in the lead up to this summit and counted the number of lobbyists, with The Guardian.) Now, if the food and farming business were coming here in good faith, that would be OK – the UN needs big polluters to get on board with tackling the climate crisis, right? But this is not what we are seeing. Trade groups, particularly those that represent the animal farming sector (meat, dairy, feed), who are lobbying here, do one of two things, usually both at once: insist they are the “solution” to climate change, and demand public money for technological fixes that peer-reviewed science shows cannot deliver the scale of reductions needed.They are really successful (and they will say so themselves) at keeping food emissions out of the spotlight. This translates into countries still not having plans to tackle food sector emissions in their climate plans (Only 16 out of 54 countries reviewed by the OECD have specific emissions-reduction targets for agriculture in their NDCs). It means there is still no independent roadmap to chart a pathway for agriculture towards sustainability that industry progress (or lack of) can be measured against (like you have for fossil fuelled industries like transport). Updated at 4.25pm GMT 4.05pm GMT Away from Cop30 England and Arsenal footballer Beth Mead has taken a stand on the climate crisis. Writing for the Guardian the Euro 2025 winner warns that the changing climate threatens the future of the global game. Related: Beth Mead: ‘If we don’t adapt to climate change, football becomes a privilege, not a right‘ 3.44pm GMT ‘Why do we need to prove that we’re afraid in order to be taken seriously?’ Five youths from around the world will call for a COP for children in the Belém conference centre today in recognition that this generation is among the most vulnerable to the climate crisis. They will tell stories in the Blue Zone of how their lives are affected by rising temperatures and ever more extreme weather, then make a demonstration in the corridors of the conference centre. The organisers of the event say children represent one-third of the world’s population. Three-in-four of them live in the Global South, which is bearing the brunt of droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves. At least 5.9 million children could fall into poverty by 2030 as a result of the climate crisis and 242 million students have already had their classes disrupted by extreme climate events say the São Paulo-based Alana Institute, which describes itself as a social and environmental impact organization that promotes and inspires a better world for children. “We call for a COP for Children, in which we have for the first time a bold decision on child sensitive language,” they say. “Therefore, we urge Parties to include children as a primary consideration, as referred to in Article 3 of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, by addressing the disproportionate impacts of climate change on children and relevant policy solutions in national planning and implementation processes.” Earlier this week, the institute arranged a three-generation exchange between 40 children and adolescents with leaders such as Mary Robinson, Ana Lucia Villela and Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim. One 11-year-old named Vicente asked the elders: “Why do we need to prove that we’re afraid in order to be taken seriously?“ João Paulo Amaral, of the institute said: “If this is the COP of Inclusion, we cannot leave one-third of the world population behind. We need this COP to consider children as a primary consideration, as their health and life are at risk. Let’s remember, every adult was a child and a safer climate for children is a safer climate for all.” Updated at 3.46pm GMT 3.02pm GMT WaterAid climate campaigners are at the Cop30 conference and earlier this week handed in an open letter calling on governments to place water at the heart of their climate plans. Samia Anwar Rafa, a youth WaterAid campaigner from Bangladesh said: I want to see more climate financing flowing into communities who are the most vulnerable to climate impacts. Like in Bangladesh, where we’re experiencing the harsh realities of climate change with severe cyclones, prolonged droughts and increasingly salty drinking water Frequently left out of the COP process and often unable to follow its progress, these communities suffer the worst impacts of floods, droughts, and unsafe water access. This week, we need to make decisions that are felt around the world – from Belem to Bangladesh. We don’t want to just see empty promises, we need to see delivery now. Barkat Bin Saïda Matazaky, a WaterAid Young Climate Leader from Madagascar said: Water connects us, sustains us, yet too often it fails to reach everyone equally. From my perspective, in Madagascar, there are communities whose survival, health, and livelihoods would depend entirely on reliable access to clean water. “Climate risks are intensifying: some regions face severe droughts while others experience devastating floods. Without proper coordination, investments remain fragmented, and vulnerable communities risk being left behind. 2.46pm GMT Mother Earth is watching over Cop30. “I am taking care to watch over all the decisions taken here about me,” she told the Guardian. The blessing card she presented said: “Knowing the powerful impact my thoughts can have on others and the environment, I choose to create a positive mindset.” This beautiful vision is in everyday life Nazaré Oliveira, an indigenous woman from Belém, and a descendant of the Potyguar people. She is part of the international spiritual organisation Brahma Kumaris, led by women and which uses meditation to emphasise the concept of identity as souls rather than bodies and the idea that humanity and nature are one. 2.25pm GMT The militarisation of the space around Cop30 has been “confusing and disappointing”, Mexican climate activist Maria Reyes has said. Speaking at the Climate Justice Hub at the UN climate summit, Reyes, who campaigns with the Alliance of Non-Governmental Radical Youth (Angry), told the Guardian. This is my fifth COP. I’ve been around since COP26 in Glasgow and this has been the most militarised COP I’ve attended. We had really high expectations because I’m from Latin America, and this is also the Latin American COP – apart from the Amazonian and the Brazilian Cop. So we had really high expectations of also being able to demonstrate, protest and exercise our right to the civic space. But we have encountered heavy militarisation and a heavy crackdown on civil society protesting outside the venue. So it’s been very confusing and disappointing because the last three COPs have happened in countries where the civil society cannot protest and cannot mobilise outside. And mobilising is a fundamental right for exercise in civic space. Responding to the intervention by Simon Stiell, the UNFCCC chief executive, whose letter to the Brazilian authorities seemed to be the trigger for the increase in security measures around the Hangar Conference Centre in Belém since last week, Reyes said: I think it’s very disconcerting. Like it was definitely a very racist letter where the UN seems to want to inflict power over the autonomous territory of Brazilian authorities. But Reyes said she was hopeful that the tensions between the host country, the UN and civil society could have a positive outcome. She said: I think this is a confrontation that is needed. What’s happening in between civil society, the military and the UN, it’s a reflection of the tension that exists within this space. So I hope for this COP that the United Nations authorities and the Brazilian authorities open their eyes and they realise that what they are doing, what they are inflicting with the militarisation of COP is completely opposite of what they have been preaching in the last three years. Brazil knew that they wanted to host this COP since three years ago, probably even earlier. So the way that they are responding to it does not show that they were ready to receive all this flow of international civil society. So my hope is that they can release, relax the heavy militarization that they’re putting in the space and allow us to use the civic space to demonstrate. The Mexican climate activist Maria Reyes on the militarisation around Cop30 in Belém, Brazil. pic.twitter.com/Vi5noQbYse— Damien Gayle (@damiengayle) November 19, 2025 Updated at 2.27pm GMT 1.49pm GMT For more on China’s position at this Cop my colleagues Fiona Harvey and Jonathan Watts had this story overnight Related: China doesn’t want to lead alone on climate policies, senior adviser warns 1.38pm GMT Carbon Brief has a roundup of news from Cop30 including this, from Politico, on China’s top envoy criticising EU targets and Trump’s “bad example.” China’s climate envoy Liu Zhenmin has told Politico at Cop30 that the EU and other developed countries should achieve net-zero before 2040. However, China and the EU “could step up their cooperation” on climate issues, Liu is described as saying, according to the outlet. He also states that the absence of the US “really creates a very bad example”, but stresses there is “no real replacement” for the US in fighting climate change, the outlet adds. Todd Stern, former US climate envoy, tells the Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper that the participation of some US Democrat leaders at COP30, “while it may not have the same impact as the personal involvement of the US president, it is still very important and sufficient to demonstrate to the world: the US has not abandoned climate action; it remains ‘all in’”. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the US-based Asia Society Policy Institute, says that “oversimplifying Beijing as a climate laggard could mean reali[s]ing too late that Chinese companies have already far outpaced their Western counterparts in the clean-tech sector”, Deutsche Welle reports. Updated at 1.44pm GMT 1.03pm GMT Brazil aims to wrap some challenging negotiations by end of day Brazil’s running of Cop30 has been unorthodox from the start, with an insistence that effectively there was little to negotiate at this “conference of the parties” and that some of the biggest items – the roadmap to climate finance, the transition away from fossil fuels, and above all a response to the national climate plans that were supposed to be submitted ahead of this Cop – were not even to be on the agenda. The hosts have continued with their unusual approach: the Cop president has let it be known he wants to wrap up the most difficult issues at a ministerial meeting on Wednesday, gavel through the deal, and then allow the less contentious issues to be processed on Thursday and Friday. This would be the opposite of the usual Cop format, in which routine issues are dispensed with first and the final hours are an almost fisticuffs affair when ministers wrangle over their intractable differences – usually over money and responsibility for emissions cuts - late into the night. Gavelling through a “Belem political package” on Wednesday may be the aim – in practice, nations are still so wide apart on the key issues that it is vanishingly unlikely. The “big four” issues have been known since the start of this Cop, when they were decanted out of the agenda and into special “presidency consultations” on the first official day. They are: finance, transparency, trade and a response to the inadequacy of the national climate plans. Finance is a perennial issue at Cops and last year developing countries were frustrated when their developed counterparts agreed only $300bn of the promised $1.3 trillion in climate finance annually by 2035 would come directly from rich country coffers. So some developing country groupings have proposed discussions on Article 9.1 of the Paris agreement, which requires developed countries to provide finance to the poor world. Rich countries see this as an attempted bear trap, to wrap them into a model of climate finance based on the 1992 division of countries (under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, parent treaty to the 2015 Paris agreement) into developed and developing, which they argue no longer applies as countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates have grown rich on their oil wealth, and high-performing economies such as South Korea and Singapore have GDP per capita higher than EU member states. Trade is likewise contentious as China and many developing countries have been angered by the EU’s green tariff. The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) places a charge on imports of high-carbon goods such as steel, when they come from jurisdictions with weak controls on carbon. China argues that the EU’s carbon price is too high, and poorer countries are worried that they are being unfairly caught up in the row and will be penalised. Though the EU’s CBAM has been the lightning rod for discontent, there are many trade disparities in the developing world: some poor countries levy tariffs on imports of green goods, such as renewable energy components. The EU argues that the UNFCCC is not the arena in which to raise or settle trade issues. Transparency refers to the question of the biennial transparency reports that countries must submit to the UN under the Paris agreement, showing how they are cutting or curbing their greenhouse gas emissions, and how they are providing or using climate finance. Many countries dislike having to disclose detailed information, regarding the “measurement, reporting and verification” as a potential infringement of national sovereignty, but without such data it is impossible to judge how the world is progressing on the Paris targets. The most important of the “big four” issues is the response to the NDCs. Under the Paris agreement, parties must produce NDCs – national plans on greenhouse gas emissions, also showing measures to meet them and finance needs – on a five-year cycle. This year was delivery year for the third round of NDCs: the first, presented at Paris, would have led to warming of about 3.6C; the second, at Glasgow in 2021 to about 2.8C; and the current round, still being submitted by some countries at Cop30, would cook the planet to about 2.5C. The question of how these inadequate proposals can be reconciled with the Paris agreement goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – which has already been breached for two years, but could still be held to in the longer term according to optimistic estimates – is now one of the defining issues for Cop30. So far, the text suggests more negotiations, coming back next year, or encouraging countries to do better. All of these are weak. Finally, Brazil has had to bow to pressure from the more than 80 countries that want to see a “transition away from fossil fuels” to be on the agenda for Cop30. A draft “mutirao decision” including some potential wording on the issue was released on Tuesday, containing several potential options for such wording. The countries that refuse to accept any mention of the phaseout – which was committed to at Cop28 in 2023 but has been under attack since - are likely to make their views known on Wednesday. Fresh drafts will be prepared, and Brazil’s stated intention of moving to a final draft that has whittled down the options to a single pathway by the end of Wednesday are certainly optimistic. Correa do Lago is hosting heads of delegation, and facilitating shuttle diplomacy among the competing nations and regional and special interest groupings in Belem. President Lula’s arrival in Belem is supposed to galvanise the talks – he and the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres, who is also in town, will use their charm and influence to try to bridge disagreements and broke deals among the conflicting parties. Brazil’s changes to the Cop format may help to produce movement, but at the end this process always comes down to the same basic formula: countries meeting in windowless rooms hashing out the details of potential compromises, and – when it goes right – surrendering some of their perceived short term national interest to the common good. Updated at 6.04pm GMT 12.42pm GMT And while we are looking at industry lobbyists and their impact on Cop30 my colleague Nina Lakhani wrote this piece over night on big agriculture’s presence at these negotiations. Related: More than 300 big agriculture lobbyists have taken part in Cop30, investigation finds 12.37pm GMT Big oil trots out old-school climate denial Big oil is still trotting out the climate denial trope that “the climate has always changed” here at Cop30.. TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne was confronted by a Greenpeace campaigner, after speaking on a panel. The encounter was reported by AFP: The Greenpeace activist demanded the fossil fuel industry compensate victims of extreme weather events. “There have been cyclones in the Caribbean for decades,” Pouyanne retorted. When told they were “accelerating,” he replied: “I am not a scientist.” “I am not a meteorologist,” Pouyanne said when asked by AFP about science showing hurricanes are becoming more intense. “I simply observe that, unfortunately, there were (cyclones), there are still (cyclones) and there will be more.” Russia’s Cop30 negotiator also sought to ignore the clear and present dangers of the climate crisis: “If we start living without fossil fuels, even people in [rich nations] will suffer, believe me.” Updated at 6.03pm GMT 12.25pm GMT As we wait for things to swing into action in Belem my colleague Damian Carrington says protesters were out in force around Cop30 conference centre as he made his way in this morning – including one group holding a sign that read “we’ll be less activist if you’ll be less shit” – a fairly direct challenge to those inside the venue as negotiations resume. Updated at 12.25pm GMT 12.09pm GMT Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is due to fly back to Belém on Wednesday as momentum surged behind efforts to include a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels and ending deforestation as one of the key outcomes of Cop30. More than 80 countries have put their weight behind moves to plot a path out of the era of coal, oil and gas, though they face strong resistance from petrostates and other major economies in the remaining few days of the negotiations. The task now for Lula will be to persuade China and India to back the proposal, and to get support from the European Union to provide extra finance. Only then will this historical political mandate be possible. The Brazilian presidency of COP30 insists the global talks will end as scheduled on Friday, but with other key topics, including finance and trade, also unresolved, this will require huge breakthroughs. It would also break a sequence of COP overruns stretching back more than 20 years. Observers have been encouraged that the main negotiating text is relatively “clean”, which means that, compared to previous years, there are fewer brackets denoting areas of disagreement. A transition away from fossil fuels was not included in the agenda for this conference, but Lula has spelled out in three previous speeches here in Belém that he wants a roadmap to be among the results. The return of this global south figurehead will add impetus to the negotiations and could help to secure support from China, a Brics ally whose president Xi Jinping has stressed support for the COP presidency and multilateral decision making. A roadmap for eliminating the main source of the emissions that are heating the world could potentially constitute significant progress, but the devil will be in the detail. Some advocates fear the current wording is too vague to be effective. They want it to have measurable goals and clear action plans. For this to have any chance of success, Cop30 will also have to move forward on the vexed issue of finance. Wealthy industrialised economies, which are most to blame for climate breakdown, have agreed to help developing countries with the energy transition and adapt to the already dire consequences of climate breakdown. But the commitments so far have fallen short of what is needed and many of the promised funds have yet to materialise. The need for urgent action has been made apparent by the presence of indigenous leaders and scientists and at the conference. Forest people have spelled out how their territories have suffered from devastating droughts in recent years, as well as land invasions and illegal mining. Climatologists have warned that the Amazon and other biomes are fast degrading towards a point of no return that would have dire global consequences. If Belém can encourage nations to fulfill their promises, this situation would look a less less bleak. This morning, a new analysis by Climate Action Tracker coalition revealed the the rate of global heating could be cut by a third in the next decade if governments simply honoured their existing commitments to triple the amount of renewable energy generated by 2030, double global energy efficiency by the same date, and make substantial cuts to the powerful greenhouse gas methane. The Brazilian hosts of Cop30 have described this as the “action summit.” Over the next three - or more - days, we will find out how much it can deliver. 12.09pm GMT Good morning, it is Matthew Taylor here and I will be hosting the liveblog for the next few hours, keeping across all the latest developments from Cop30 in Brazil.