New Macroeconomic Survey Outlines Kazakhstan’s Key Forecast Trends

ASTANA – The National Bank of Kazakhstan has released the results of its latest macroeconomic survey, reflecting independent expert assessments of key economic indicators, including oil prices, GDP growth, inflation, policy rates, trade flows, and the tenge exchange rate.

Experts slightly lowered their assumptions for Brent oil prices across the forecast horizon. The average price is projected at $68.7 per barrel this year, and $63.8 and $64.1 in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Despite this, Kazakhstan’s economic growth outlook has improved, with GDP growth forecasts rising to 5.9% this year (up from 5.6%), 4.9% in 2026 (from 4.8%), and 5% in 2027 (from 4.8%).

Inflation forecasts have remained largely unchanged. The end-2025 inflation forecast has been slightly revised upward from 12% to 12.3%. Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at 10% and 7%, respectively, reported the bank’s press service on Nov. 20.

Respondents now expect a higher base rate across the entire forecast horizon. The median forecast for end-2025 has increased from 16.6% to 18%, for 2026 – from 14.8% to 16%, and for 2027 – from 12% to 13%.

The survey included 14 organizations engaged in the analysis and forecasting of Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators. Respondents included professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations, and rating agencies.