NICHOLAS SHUBITZ: Brics offers SA farmers a post-Agoa lifeline

As the US retreats from almost eight decades of free trade, South Africa faces the urgent task of identifying new trade partners. The combination of Trump’s tariffs and the expiration of the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) is a major concern for domestic food producers and has made the Brics group indispensable to the government’s efforts to help farmers avoid losses.

While the mining industry benefits from US tariff exceptions, the agricultural sector faces increased uncertainty. A bill has been introduced in the US Senate which, if passed, would extend Agoa for two years, but South Africa is explicitly excluded as a beneficiary. Thankfully, the government of national unity (GNU) appears committed to diversifying South Africa’s trade ties, prioritising greater integration with the Brics bloc to redirect agricultural exports and maintain economic stability.

The Trump administration’s protectionist policies have severely disrupted a global trade order that has driven remarkable levels of economic growth since the end of World War 2. For South Africa and many other African countries, which have historically run trade surpluses with the US, this policy shift from Washington could prove particularly economically challenging.

Agoa, which underpinned the postapartheid relationship between Pretoria and Washington, opened the US market to South African goods on preferential terms. The agreement helped consolidate diplomatic goodwill while supporting domestic industries and the scheme’s success encouraged successive South African governments to maintain good relations with the US to ensure its periodic renewal.

From its inception in mid-2000 to its expiration earlier this year, Agoa allowed about 20% of South Africa’s exports to enter the US duty free. The programme played an essential role in sustaining the nation’s manufacturing base and supported thousands of jobs in the agricultural sector. South Africa accounted for more than half of all Agoa-related exports, making it the initiative’s biggest beneficiary.

The the benefits were not confined to South Africa alone. Agoa also enabled smaller African economies, such as Eswatini, Lesotho and Madagascar, to develop competitive textile industries that could rival Chinese suppliers. In Lesotho, about a third of exports were tied to Agoa, supporting 30,000-40,000 mainly female workers. The programme consequently functioned as an economic lifeline and a source of social empowerment across the region.

Given this context, Washington needed to carefully weigh the strategic consequences of letting Agoa lapse. For decades free trade has served as the foundation of the US’s engagement with Sub-Saharan Africa. Without it, many African nations could turn further toward the Brics alliance, deepening ties with countries such as India, Russia and China.

China to the rescue

While the US tears up agreements, China is signing deals. In a striking reversal of global trends Beijing has announced duty-free access for all African nations, positioning itself as the continent’s most welcoming major partner. For South Africa, this policy shift arrives at a crucial moment. After months of uncertainty caused by American tariffs, Beijing has offered a lifeline to SA farmers, granting access for prunes, plums, peaches, apricots and cherries.

The breakthrough stems from a landmark trade agreement signed in Shanghai between South African agriculture minister John Steenhuisen and China’s general administration of customs minister, Sun Meijun. It marks the first time China has approved multiple fruit types from a single country under one agreement. According to Steenhuisen, the agreement forms part of South Africa’s efforts to diversify trade by capitalising on growing consumer demand in emerging markets.

China’s appetite for fruit offers enormous potential. The world’s second largest consumer market imported more than 21-million cartons of peaches and nectarines and about 20-million cartons of plums last year, volumes that easily exceed South Africa’s total annual exports. Chinese imports of peaches and plums are valued at more than $4bn and conservative forecasts suggest the deal could bring an additional R400m to South African farmers over the next five years.

The deal gives South Africa’s stone fruit producers access to the world’s largest food import market, encouraging farmers to increase output and creating beneficial ripple effects across the country’s fruit-growing regions. If the partnership succeeds, it could pave the way for further agricultural exports to China, potentially encompassing a wider range of produce in future negotiations.

Steenhuisen and Meijun already discussed restarting beef exports from certain provinces, which will be boosted by Wednesday’s announcement of a blanket foot-and-mouth vaccination programme for South Africa’s more than 7-million cattle herd. Arrangements have also been made for a Chinese inspection team to visit local cherry and blueberry farms.

“China has been South Africa’s largest trade partner for over a decade,” Steenhuisen said, emphasising the mutual commitment to expanding agricultural co-operation. “We deeply value China’s partnership and its continued engagement in helping our farmers access new opportunities.”

Brics — a world of opportunities

Beyond its growing partnership with China, South Africa is deepening trade ties across the wider Brics network, with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent visit to Malaysia highlighting the government’s post-Agoa strategy of broadening export markets and reducing dependence on the West.

Earlier this year, Steenhuisen and deputy president Paul Mashatile jointly visited Japan to promote citrus, avocados and wine. Attention has now turned to Brics member Indonesia and Brics partners Malaysia and Vietnam as new frontiers for trade and investment.

After several agreements aimed at boosting agricultural exports to Middle Eastern Brics partners, Pretoria is now seeking to negotiate free trade arrangements with Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. These deals are expected to boost agricultural export revenue, diversify markets and create greater resilience against external economic shocks.

Ramaphosa noted that trade between South Africa and Southeast Asia totals about $25bn and could rise substantially with improved regulatory conditions and mutual investment frameworks. South Africa already exports fruit and coal to the region and the president sees untapped potential.

During his visit Ramaphosa directly addressed the repercussions of the US trade war, observing that South Africa had come to Southeast Asia to diversify its markets due to widespread tariff measures. “We must engage now while this window of opportunity remains open,” he stated, underscoring the urgency of building new alliances as protectionist barriers undermine global trade.

These trade agreements and engagements suggest Brics could prove a crucial lifeline for SA agricultural producers facing increased uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs and the expiration of Agoa. South Africa appears intent on building closer ties with its Brics partners in Asia, with recent trade agreements suggesting the GNU is fully aligned in the implementation of this trade diversification strategy to boost South Africa’s agricultural exports.

• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.