UN warns world losing climate battle but fragile Cop30 deal keeps up the fight

The world is not winning the fight against the climate crisis but it is still in that fight, the UN climate chief has said in Belém, Brazil, after a bitterly contested Cop30 reached a deal. Countries at Cop30 failed to bring the curtain down on the fossil fuel age amid opposition from some countries led by Saudi Arabia, and they underdelivered on a flagship hope – at a conference held in the Amazon – to chart an end to deforestation. But in a fractious era of nationalism, war and distrust, the talks did not collapse as was feared. Multilateralism held – just. “We knew this Cop would take place in stormy political waters,” said Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate chief, after a long and occasionally angry final plenary at the climate summit. “Denial, division and geopolitics has dealt international cooperation some heavy blows this year.” Related: Trump, war, absent media: five threats to climate progress that dogged Cop30 But Cop30 showed that “climate cooperation is alive and kicking”, Stiell added, making an oblique reference to the US, which under Donald Trump opted not to send anyone to Belém. Trump, who has called the climate crisis a “hoax” and a “con job” has come to embody the opposition to progress on dealing with dangerous global heating. Stiell said: “I’m not saying we’re winning the climate fight. But we are undeniably still in it, and we are fighting back. Here in Belém, nations chose unity, science and economic common sense. This year there has been a lot of attention on one country stepping back. But amid the gale-force political headwinds, 194 countries stood firm in solidarity – rock solid in support of climate cooperation.” He pointed to one section of the Cop30 agreement: “The global transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development is irreversible and the trend of the future.” He argued: “This is a political and market signal that cannot be ignored.” The summit began more than a fortnight ago with the leaders’ summit. The Brazilian hosts promised with early sunny optimism that it would finish on time, but as the negotiations went on the confusion and obvious divisions between parties grew, and the process looked close to collapse on Friday. Overnight negotiations and compromise on all sides meant a deal could be agreed on Saturday. The summit produced decisions on dozens of issues, including a promise to triple adaptation funding to protect communities against climate impacts, an agreement for a just transition mechanism (JTM) and recognition of the rights of Indigenous people. However, proposals to start planning roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels and end deforestation were not agreed and were hived off to processes outside the UN to be pushed forward by coalitions of willing nations. The impacts of the food system – such as cattle in cleared tracts in the Amazon – were largely ignored. The overall package was largely seen as incremental at best and far less than is needed to tackle the accelerating climate crisis. Jasper Inventor, a deputy programme director at Greenpeace International, said: “Cop30 started with a bang of ambition but ended with a whimper of disappointment. This was the moment to move from negotiations to implementation – and it slipped.” The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said progress was made but warned it was becoming more difficult to secure agreements. “Cops are consensus-based – and in a period of geopolitical divides, consensus is ever harder to reach,” he said. “I cannot pretend that Cop30 has delivered everything that is needed. The gap between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously wide.” The EU commissioner for the environment, Wopke Hoekstra, echoed the sense of relief. “It is not perfect, but it is a huge step in the right direction. The EU stood united, fighting for ambition on climate action,” he posted on X, even though that unity was sorely tested. Related: Cop30’s watered-down agreements will do little for an ecosystem at tipping point Anna Åberg, of the thinktank Chatham House, said just reaching a deal was positive. “A ‘Cop collapse’ would have been a big and harmful blow at the end of a year already marked by serious challenges for international climate cooperation and multilateralism more broadly,” she said. “It is positive that a deal was reached in Belém, even if many will – legitimately – be disappointed with the level of ambition.” But there was also deep frustration that although adaptation finance had been promised, the deadline had been pushed back to 2035. Mamadou Ndong Toure, the thematic lead for climate and resilience at Practical Action in Senegal, said: “Adaptation cannot be built on shrinking commitments; people on the frontline need predictable, accountable support and a clear path to act.” Similarly, although Brazil styled Cop30 as the “Indigenous Cop” and the deal recognised for the first time Indigenous people’s land rights and knowledge as a fundamental climate solution, there were still concerns that participation was limited. “Despite being referred to as an Indigenous Cop … it became clear that Indigenous peoples continue to be excluded from the negotiations,” said Emil Gualinga, of the Kichwa Peoples of Sarayaku, Ecuador. And there was frustration that the final text did not refer directly to fossil fuels. James Dyke, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, said: “Despite the host’s best efforts, Cop30 will not even be able to get nations to agree to fossil fuel phase-out. This shameful outcome is the result of narrow self-interest and cynical politicking.” After several years of these annual UN climate gatherings being held in authoritarian-led countries, there were bursts of colourful protest in Belém as civil society returned in force. A march with tens of thousands of protesters lit up the middle Saturday of the summit and activists made their voices heard in an otherwise, grey, sterile conference centre. “From Indigenous-led demonstrations at the venue to the more than 70,000 people who marched in the streets, there was a palpable sense of momentum that I haven’t felt for years,” said Jamie Henn, the director of Fossil Free Media. At least a path ahead remains, watchers concluded. Prof Michael Grubb, of University College London, said: “The damp squib of an outcome from Cop30 has underlined that a focus on the negative – phasing out of fossil fuels – is fraught with political obstacles. For the road to Cop31, the focus must be balanced by equal attention to the positive – the huge economic potential of accelerating the energy transition, and ways to help countries around the world benefit from renewables and electrification.”