Who is Jess Wilson and should the Victorian Labor government be worried?

Within minutes of becoming the first woman to lead the Victorian Liberals, 35-year-old Jess Wilson made a strategic shift that should worry Labor. Her predecessor, Brad Battin, a former police officer, had spent almost a year focused overwhelmingly on crime. He was a man so eager to campaign on the issue, he once detoured to the scene of a fatal stabbing to hold a press conference before the body had been removed. Even as senior colleagues prepared to knock on his door on Monday and say “it’s time to go”, his social media feeds were pumping out videos of him spruiking his “tough on crime” message on suburban streets. Related: Victorian Liberal party ousts Brad Battin to install Jess Wilson as first female leader But despite genuine concern in parts of Melbourne, Battin’s campaign on crime had little impact on polls. And when Jacinta Allan announced she would send 14-year-old kids to adult prison, some colleagues feared he had been snookered, with nothing to fall back on. Some called him “a one-trick pony”. Emerging from the party room on Tuesday morning, Wilson promptly demoted crime to a second priority for the party, after restoring the state’s budget. After a cursory mention of crime, Wilson identified healthcare and home ownership as other top priorities. She spoke of “a new generation” of Liberals. She may as well have said a “new focus”. Sign up: AU Breaking News email “It was a very deliberate shift from Brad,” says one senior Liberal party source, who declined to be named to speak freely after the vote. “We ran on crime in 2018 and 2022 and it didn’t work then. It won’t work now, especially so given what Allan has done. “The election will be won or lost depending on the economy, budget and the cost of living. Jess has much more depth and substance on those issues and they know Labor fears her the most.” Kos Samaras, a former Labor party strategist, agrees the shift was clear. While he does not think the Liberals have any chance of winning the November 2026 election, he thinks Labor’s task just got harder. “When I heard Wilson was being put forward, I thought, oh, it looks like they want to win and are sick of losing,” Samaras says. For Samaras, it comes down to demographics. He says concern about crime is real, but “not salient across a group of Victorians who they need to win over”. “The future of this state is largely going to be determined by people in their 30s and 40s who are starting families or have teenage kids,” Samaras says. “They have very complex views about crime. Do they think the judicial system is not up to it? Sure. But they don’t like it being the centre of everything. “This is the group that’s in play at this election and Jess is pitching herself directly to them. That is why it should worry Labor.” Wilson, the daughter of former Liberal MP Ron Wilson and a former adviser to federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg, has been praised by colleagues for her policy knowledge and communication. Frydenberg described her as “smart, sensible, and determined” in a social media post congratulating her. “I have seen first-hand her ability to get across complex policy and to communicate ideas effectively and with empathy,” Frydenberg said. “She has, at all times, reflected the very best values.” But others are blunt in that her age matches the profile of voters the party is chasing. They also argue her gender provides the party with a chance to present “a very different and compelling face for the Victorian Liberal party”. Like her federal counterpart, Sussan Ley, Wilson became the first woman to lead a Liberal division after replacing a former cop who talked tough on crime. Like Ley, Wilson has also inherited a divided party room that has the potential to make her history-making win a short-term venture. In Victoria, internal disputes, bitter rivalries, bad blood and own goals failed to give Battin the clear air he needed to establish his leadership. Wilson, who has described herself as “a small l” Liberal, secured the top job with support from conservative MPs including Bev McArthur, who will lead the party in the upper house. She also benefited from one-time Battin loyalists who felt burned by a recent reshuffle. But her ability to hold on to the job depends largely on her colleagues being willing and able to maintain discipline and keep internal disputes and grievances within the party room – a task often beyond reach in recent memory. Those who devised this leadership spill may have been alert to the danger. When McArthur, no stranger to factional politics in Victoria, was asked how she was sure divisions within the party would not threaten Wilson’s leadership, she said “that’s why I’m here”. McArthur, who worked with Wilson’s parents and says she once watched Jess ride a pony on her farm as a small girl, may play a big role in protecting her. Samaras says the Coalition’s treatment of Ley in recent weeks shows what is at stake when internal division undermines a leader. “They have got to be very careful that she isn’t treated like Ley is,” Samaras says. “Because I can assure you, with what the Liberals are doing to her, they are going to pay in a very big way at the ballot box when women vote.” • Henry Belot is a senior reporter for Guardian Australia, based in Melbourne