How Europe's centrist governments can respond to the anti-immigration surge

There are arguably only three centre-left governments left in western Europe: Denmark, Spain and the UK. Many might question their leftist credentials but these are countries still governed by the sorts of traditional Socialist or Social Democratic parties that have elsewhere in Europe suffered the Pasokification process and disappeared into electoral irrelevance. The three centre-left governments have little in common but are all incumbents as Europe undergoes an anti-immigration surge framed by more outspoken right-wing rhetoric. Perhaps less surprisingly centre-right governments in countries like France and Germany have also been swept to the right on immigration, but on the left two clear paths have emerged. In London, the Labour government recently outlined hardline asylum and immigration rules that imitate Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats. In Madrid, however, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists have taken a different approach. READ ALSO: Which of Europe's anti-immigration parties are the most extreme? The Danish model After Denmark's far-right Danish People’s Party (DF) won over a fifth of the votes in the 2015 elections, the centre-left Social Democrats (SD) recalibrated its immigration policies. It joined the centre-right and DF in a so-called “paradigm shift” on immigration in 2019 that treats all refugees as having temporary status, and the SD has also followed stricter approaches to citizenship, an ongoing plan to screen the views of applicants, and Denmark is one of eight EU states to urge a rethink of the ECHR. Electorally speaking it has, in a sense, 'worked': the far-right DF’s vote share plummeted to 8.7 percent in 2019 and 2.6 percent in 2022. However, the recent SD defeat in local elections, including losing the Copenhagen mayor’s seat after a century in power, was symptomatic of poor results across the country and has been interpreted by some as a referendum on the party's rightward turn. Professor Michelle Pace, Associate Fellow at Chatham House and Professor of Global Studies at Roskilde University, suggests the results in the local elections reveal the limitations of the SD's move to the right on immigration. She tells The Local that in Denmark there's "a discord between what politicians are saying and what the general public and majority feel on this issue," pointing to the "harsh rhetoric" directed towards migrants and asylum seekers as a possible explanation for the poor performance in elections. The SD's more hardline policies appear to have had an impact in terms of raw numbers with Denmark recording historically low numbers of asylum claims in recent years. They've also perturbed traditional voters by perceived performative cruelty, notably the controversial “Jewellery Law” of 2016 that takes valuables from asylum seekers. The law was actually passed by a previous centre-right government, but it was backed by the Social Democrats in opposition. However although it made headlines it has not often been enforced. Figures from the Danish Immigration Ministry show just 194 cases of jewellery being confiscated in the period between January 2016-June 2025. Put simply: tough talk to show the left isn't soft on immigration in a rightward shifting debate. The jewellery law "was only a rhetorical deterrent," Pace says, but added to the hostile environment and reinforced the idea of Frederiksen as the 'Iron Lady'." The Spanish model Spain's centre-left PM Pedro Sánchez is something of an endangered species in the 2020s. He's an unashamedly pro-immigration leader who doesn't ventriloquize right-wing rhetoric, but instead links immigration to the long-term prosperity of the country. For the Spanish left, immigration is not only a moral and legal obligation but a public good for all Spaniards: "Welcoming those who come from abroad in search of a better life is not only a duty that international law obliges us to fulfil, but also an essential step to guarantee the prosperity and sustainability of our welfare state," Sánchez said recently. And it's not as though Spain doesn't have its own surging far-right. The Vox party is rising in the polls, sitting at around 17 percent and stealing voters from the centre-right People's Party. The problem for Sanchez and his more open stance on immigration is that a hard-right coalition victory looks likely next time Spaniards head to the polls. But still the Spanish PM refuses to mimic what pundits think many voters want to hear. 'Not short term rhetoric but long-term economic benefit' Instead of dwindling numbers, immigration has contributed 84 percent of Spanish population growth since 2022 and it's been a boon for the workforce and the economy as a whole. The majority of those immigrants have joined the labour market, contributed “to expanding the supply [of workers], alleviating labour shortages and boosting economic growth” according to the European Central Bank (ECB). Spain has outpaced its European neighbours on the back of immigration. In 2024 the Spanish economy grew by 3.2 percent, the fastest rate in the Eurozone In Denmark, the skepticism over inviting skilled foreign labour continues despite shortages in many sectors. Whereas Copenhagen and London have sought third-country deals to deport asylum seekers in recent years, Spain has signed international agreements in order to attract more migrants and seasonal workers to ensure legal and safe migration because, Sánchez says, it's the "best way to put an end to irregular migration and the misery associated with it". Sánchez doesn't deny that illegal migration can cause problems in society. Spain has societal tensions like any other. Nonetheless, the Sánchez model, Pace says, looks "not at short-term political rhetoric but rather long-term to the economy". A study by the Bank of Spain last year estimated that the country will need 25 million more immigrant workers by 2053 in order to combat demographic ageing and maintain the country's pension system for a generation of baby boomer Spaniards set to retire. So, faced with right-wing populism fuelled by anti-immigration sentiment, the are two clear paths being taken in Europe. The Danish model: a tough-talking, deterrent-based policy that treads on far-right turf when it comes to immigration; and the Spanish model, which refuses far-right framing and makes the economic case for immigration. Ultimately this is about values, Pace says. "It's about the true values of a Social Democratic Party... And that's where I think Spain could be a very interesting model, but it's very little spoken about," she says. The look around Europe We touched on many of these themes in our cross-site coverage this week. For a fuller breakdown of the Social Democrats defeat in local elections, read The Local Denmark's coverage here. In France, John Lichfield considered whether we might see a far-right President Bardella of France and concluded that it could happen. In Sweden, the far-right Sweden Democrat MEP Charlie Weimers has launched an "immigration map" which he claims shows that Sweden is "undergoing a dramatic change and that the population is being replaced." Our own Richard Orange had a brilliant tongue-in-cheek response to this showcasing how our immigrant takeover of Sweden is progressing nicely. For this week’s Politics in Sweden, Paul O’Mahony looks back at a handful of scandals in modern Swedish history that continue to reverberate today. Italy has its own regional polls coming up soon and you can read The Local Italy's editor Clare Speak breaking down why regional elections matter and who can vote in them. Austria will introduce tougher five-day integration courses for refugees in 2026, adding a binding declaration and clearer consequences for non-compliance. And finally, in Switzerland, the team took a look at the immigration changes awaiting foreigners in 2026 and beyond.