Japan and Switzerland’s economies contract as US tariffs hit exports; Alphabet shares jump after Warren Buffett reveals stake – as it happened

4.05pm GMT US construction spending picked up in August US construction spending accelerated a little in August, new delayed data shows. A Census Bureau report that had been delayed by the US government shutdown shows that construction spending rose by 0.2% in August, to an annualized ratee of $2.17trn. Economists had been expecting construction spending to contract by 0.2% in August, so this is encouraging – although rather out of date too! 3.53pm GMT Closing post Time to recap. Japan and Switzerland have both suffered an economic hit from Donald Trump’s trade wars. Japan’s GDP shrank by 0.4% in July-September, dragged down by a fall in exports. In a double-blow to Tokyo, shares in Japanese tourism and retail firms have fallen sharply after China warned its citizens not to travel to Japan. Related: China travel warning for Japan sends shares in tourism and retail companies plunging Switzerland, which agreed a new trade deal with the US last week, shrank by 0.5% in Q3. The European Commission, though, is more optimistic than earlier this year. It has raised its forecast for eurozone growth this year. Shares in Google’s parent company, Alphabet, have jumped by more than 5% after Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the firm. But billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel has sold his entire stake in Nvidia… WPP’s share price has risen sharply amid speculation that the advertising group could be the subject of a takeover by a rival or a private equity buyer. Related: WPP shares leap amid takeover bid speculation 3.43pm GMT Peter Thiel's fund offloaded Nvidia stake in third quarter Another interesting trade to flag…..tech billionaire Peter Thiel’s hedge fund has sold off its entire stake in Nvidia during the third quarter. The sale, in a regulatory filing, intensifying worries of an artificial intelligence bubble. The fund, Thiel Macro, sold around 537,742 shares in the AI chip frontrunner in the quarter, the filing showed on Friday. The stake would have been worth around $100m, as of the company’s closing price on September 30, according to Reuters…. This is the second major investor to divest from Nvidia, following SoftBank… Related: SoftBank sells stake in Nvidia for $5.8bn as it doubles down on OpenAI bets 3.27pm GMT Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann has warned that UK businesses are continuing to react to elevated levels of inflation. In a sign that Mann, for one, will not ease off in the battle against inflation, she has insisted there is “work to do” to get inflation back to the BOE’s 2% target. She pointed to evidence that firms are paying attention to inflation when they come up with their one-year ahead pricing strategies, Bloomberg reports. Mann told a King’s College London event: “For me as a decision maker, that means the underlying dynamic for inflation continues to show upside risk,” “In a high inflation environment, there’s this asymmetry. Firms are far more likely to raise prices than to reduce them.” Mann was one of five policymakers who voted to leave UK interest rates on hold earlier this month, narrowly outvoting the four who wanted a cut. 3.21pm GMT The entire AI trade likely depends on Nvidia earnings due on Wednesday, warns Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets: Earnings are seen +54% to $1.25 per share with revenues +56% yoy to $54.8bn. Analysts are sounding upbeat ahead of the report with guidance expected to be strong on continued ramp of the GB300 advanced AI servers and generally insatiable AI demand as hyperscalers continue to bolster capex. But the bar is set very high and we know that if investors are starting to wobble the whole house of cards can come crashing down at any point. 2.45pm GMT Alphabet shares jump after Warren Buffett reveals stake Wall Street’s has opened slightly lower, at the start of a busy week that will bring us a flurry of delayed US economic data and results from Nvidia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.4 points, or 0.17%, at the open to 47068.06, while the broader S&P 500 is down 03% and the Nasdaq has lost 0.5%. Alphabet’s shares are flying, though – they’re up 5.5% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed it has build a multi-billion dollar stake in the company. A filing on Friday showed that Berkshire owned 17.85 million shares in Google’s parent at the end of September. Buffett is due to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of this year, so this could be one of the company’s last major trading moves under his leadership. Alphabet are heavily involved in the artificial intelligence sector, with Google having bought AI research laboratory DeepMind in 2014. Google is also expected to unveil Gemini 3.0, its next major AI model, soon. Updated at 3.11pm GMT 2.03pm GMT AXA Investment Managers has revealed that it cut its exposure to UK government bonds on Friday. AXA halved its exposure to UK bonds in some of its portfolios on Friday following news that the government has no plans to raise income tax, a senior fund manager has told Reuters. Nicolas Trindade, who manages global and sterling bond portfolios for the firm, says: “We are much less comfortable going into the budget.” UK bond yields jumped on Friday, as the price of the debt fell, after it emerged that chancellor Rachel Reeves had abandoned plans to raise the headline rate of income tax. Related: Rachel Reeves plans £7.5bn tax rise in budget after U-turn on income tax rates 1.36pm GMT The City has given a mixed reception to a proposed merger of two infrastructure giants. The proposed combination of HICL Infrastructure and The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) will create the UK’s largest listed infrastructure investment company with net assets in excess of £5.3bn, they told the City this morning. The boards of HICL and TRIG have signed detailed heads of terms for the deal, under which TRIG would be reconstructed and wound up, with its assets transferred to HICL in return for new HICL shares and cash. The two companies say they have received a “positive market sounding” from large shareholders of both companies. However, HICL’s shares have fallen by 7.3% today while TRIG are up 3.3%. HICL was the first infrastructure investment company listed on the London Stock Exchange in 2006, and owns a range of infrastucture assets including a portfolio of schools and universities in the UK, Ireland and France, a stake in Affinity Water, and an interest in London St. Pancras Highspeed, the rail link between London St Pancras station and the Channel tunnel. TRIG is focused on renewable energy assets, including a 10% stake in Hornsea One, the wind farm off the Yorkshire coastline. 12.57pm GMT Germany's finance minister heads to China for trade talks Germany’s finance minister is due to arrive in Beijing today as tensions between China and Europe over supply of chips deepen. Lars Klingbeil’s trip will be the first visit to China by a cabinet minister of the current German government and comes as trade figures show that Germany, once the engine of European manufacturing, is now importing more from China than it is exporting. It also comes weeks after a cancelled visit by foreign minister Johann Wadephul. China overtook the US largest trading partner in the first eight months of 2025 fuelling European fears that Beijing has been redirecting exports to the EU in the wake of the trade war ignited by Donald Trump. Germany faces a record trade deficit of €87bn with China this year, according to a forecast by state-owned international economic promotion agency Germany Trade & Invest. “Germany is uniquely exposed to the risks of Chinese industrial overcapacity—and it’s going to hit very hard,” said Jacob Gunter, head of the economy and industry programme at the think tank Merics. The dependency of Europe including the UK on China for everything from semi-conductors, to rare earths and critical raw materials, has come into sharp focus in the last two months after the Dutch government effectively took control of the Chinese-owned chip maker Nexperia. That triggered a fierce response from Beijing, which slapped a global ban on exports of Nexperia’s finished chips, which in turn led to Dutch economy minister Vincent Karremans telling the Guardian that the crisis was a “wake up call” for Europe and the west. A Dutch delegation is also due to land in Beijing this week to try and resolve the matter. Related: ‘I’d do it all again,’ says Dutch minister at heart of car chip standoff with China In Germany, politicians have called for a full-blown reassessment of policy towards Beijing, some accusing the previous Social Democrat-led government of having let Germany become too dependent on Beijing. Germany’s parliament appointed an expert commission on Thursday to rethink trade policy towards China, which on Friday hit out at Karremans blaming him for the extraordinary chip row and expressing “extreme disappointment” with him. Related: China voices ‘extreme disappointment’ with Dutch minister at centre of car chip row Volker Treier, head of foreign trade at the German Chamber of Commerce DIHK, says: “The Nexperia example should spur us to talk and demand transparency - otherwise a business problem gets used as a geopolitical issue.” Juergen Hardt, foreign policy spokesperson for chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU party, adds: “It must be clear to the Chinese government that we cannot accept economic and political interests being mixed together.” Updated at 1.04pm GMT 12.34pm GMT Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is making a move into the AI world. Bezos is to serve as co-chief executive officer of a new artificial intelligence startup that focuses on AI for engineering and manufacturing of computers, automobiles and spacecraft, the New York Times is reporting. The company, called Project Prometheus, has garnered $6.2bn (£4.7bn) in funding, partly from the Amazon founder, making it one of the most well-financed early-stage startups in the world, the report said, citing three people familiar with the company. This is the first time Bezos has taken a formal operational role in a company since he stepped down as the CEO of Amazon in July 2021, Reuters points out. Though he is involved in Blue Origin, his official title at the space firm is founder. 11.42am GMT Shares in Google’s parent company are set to rally in a few hours time in New York, after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway group revealed it has bought a stake in the tech giant. Alphabet’s shares are up 4.9% in pre-market trading, after a filing on Friday showed that Berkshire owned 17.85 million shares in Google’s parent at the end of September. This could be one of Berkshire’s last trading moves under Buffett, who is due to step down as CEO of the company at the end of this year. 11.01am GMT Despite the challenges facing WPP, its chairman could soon be adding a new job to his responsibilities. Sky News reports that Philip Jansen will be named as the next chairman of Heathrow Airport later this month. They say Jansen got the nod partly thanks to his experience running BT, which like Heathrow is a regulated utility. Related: BT denies boardroom rift was behind chairman’s resignation Heathrow is currently pressing on with its plans for a privately financed third runway and associated airport improvements, at an estimated cost of almost £50bn. A decision on the third runway is expect by the end of this parliament. Jansen became chair of WPP at the start of this year, and last week gave it a vote of confidence by buying 50,000 shares in the company. Updated at 11.02am GMT 10.39am GMT Although WPP’s shares have slipped back a little (+3.7%), they’re still leading the FTSE 100 risers. AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould sums up the situation: “Executives at embattled advertising agency WPP have recently been snapping up shares in the company and it seems they may not be the only ones who see value in the business. There is speculation about a bid from French rival Havas and private equity firms reportedly looking to pick off bits of the business. “After years when it felt like WPP’s shares had been suffering a slow puncture, the tyre has burst in stock market terms for the company in 2025. This led to the departure of CEO Mark Read and investors in the US apparently being rallied by law firms for a class action lawsuit alleging they were misled about the state of the business. “WPP has a lot of moving parts which could be an obstacle to any takeover deal for the group as a whole but, with the shares trading at low levels last seen more than a quarter of a century ago, it is vulnerable to being picked apart.” 10.10am GMT EC lifts 2025 eurozone growth forecast after pre-tariff export boom The European Commission has raised its forecast for growth in the eurozone economy this year. In its latest forecasts, the EC says economic growth has exceeded expectations in the first nine months of the year, with real GDP growth outperforming its spring forecasts. This faster-than-expected expansion is partly due to the surge of exports to the US earlier this year, as companies stocked up ahead of Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Commission now expects the eurozone will grow by 1.3% in 2025, up from the 0.9% forecast in its spring forecasts. Growth is then expected to slow to 1.2% in 2026, down from 1.4% forecast six months ago, and then rise to 1.4% in 2027. The EC says: This better-than-expected performance was initially due to a surge in exports ahead of anticipated tariff increases, but investment in equipment and intangible assets also performed more strongly than expected — most notably in Ireland, but also in other countries. Continued growth in the third quarter is testimony to the resilience of the European economy and its ability to navigate unprecedented shocks. Growth forecast for 2026 (%):🇲🇹3.8🇵🇱3.5🇱🇹3.0🇭🇷2.9🇧🇬2.7🇨🇾2.6🇸🇪2.6🇸🇮2.4🇭🇺2.3🇪🇸2.3🇬🇷2.2🇵🇹2.2🇩🇰2.1🇪🇪2.1🇨🇿1.9🇱🇺1.9🇱🇻1.7🇪🇺1.4🇳🇱1.3🇩🇪1.2🇧🇪1.1🇷🇴1.1🇸🇰1.0🇦🇹0.9🇫🇮0.9🇫🇷0.9🇮🇹0.8🇮🇪0.2Autumn #ECForecast → https://t.co/BHrNVrGGs6— European Commission (@EU_Commission) November 17, 2025 9.55am GMT A man convicted over a 2020 Twitter hack that compromised accounts of high-profile figures including former U.S. President Barack Obama has been ordered to repay £4.1m worth of Bitcoin, Reuters reports. The hack, also involved the accounts of Joe Biden, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Apple. Compromised accounts sent a series of tweets proposing a classic bitcoin scam: followers were told that if they transferred cryptocurrency to a specific bitcoin wallet, they would receive double the money in return…. Related: Twitter hack: accounts of prominent figures, including Biden, Musk, Obama, Gates and Kanye compromised 9.37am GMT The FTSE 100 share index has dipped this morning, moving further away from last week’s record highs. The UK’s blue-chip share index is down 11 points, or 0.12%, at 9687 points. Luxury fashion group Burberry (-4.6%) are the top faller, as the dipomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo threatens to hit spending by Chinese tourisms in Japan. Related: China travel warning for Japan sends shares in tourism and retail companies plunging Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says: Burberry and to a lesser extent HSBC were under pressure given the tension in Asia, while the beleaguered WPP rose on some vague bid speculation arising from weekend reports. 9.14am GMT Goldman Sachs: Buy UK government debt as unemployment rises UK government bonds are stable this morning, after a selloff last Friday when news broke that chancellor Rachel Reeves had scrapped controversial plans to raise income tax. News of the chancellor’s tax u-turn drove up the cost of borrowing, as investors worried that this month’s budget might create less fiscal headroom than the markets hoped. Related: Rachel Reeves plans £7.5bn tax rise in budget after U-turn on income tax rates Goldman Sachs are recommending buying UK government debt, predicting that bond prices will rise (pushing down interest rates, or yields). They point out that increases in the unemployment rate typically lead to lower yields (higher bond prices) over time, telling clients: The recent deterioration in the labour market points to further downside risk to UK yields, as labour market softness should translate into a stronger foundation for lower inflation in 2026, alongside ongoing disinflationary progress, and an upcoming contractionary budget. As Goldman Sachs points out, historically, increases in the unemployment rate raise the risk of recession. The “Sahm rule”, an indicator developed by US economist Claudia Sahm, signals a recession if the rise in the unemployment rate over a 12-month period reaches a particular threshold. They say: As external MPC member Megan Greene has pointed out, the UK’s “Sahm Rule” threshold is around 0.75 – meaning a rise in the 3-month average unemployment rate from the lows of the trailing 12 months to above this level has been an indicator of recessions since 1975. The latest unemployment rate in the UK was 4.97%, and the rise in the “Sahm” indicator over the lows of the last 12m has been 0.71. If the unemployment rate rises above 5.2% in the next three months, the recession threshold will be triggered. Updated at 9.18am GMT 8.19am GMT WPP shares jump on takeover speculation A flurry of takeover speculation has driven shares in advertising group WPP higher at the start of trading in London. WPP’s shares are up 4.7%, leading the risers on the FTSE 100 share index, following reports that several potential suitors have considered a bid. UPDATED: According to the Sunday Times, French rival Havas has held internal talks about a possible deal involving WPP, while private equity firms Apollo and KKR have looked into a possible bid. This interest comes after WPP’s share price fell to its lowest level since 1998 earlier this month, after it slashed its revenue guidance for the year and its new chief executive Cindy Rose said its recent performance has been “unacceptable”. Related: WPP jobs at risk as ad group’s new boss condemns ‘unacceptable’ performance The Sunday Times reported: It is not clear whether any formal bids for WPP will materialise. Bidders could seek to buy the company in its entirety, take large stakes in the business or attempt to pick off parts of the holding group. It is understood there have been talks at a high level inside Havas, which is led by [billionaire Vincent] Bolloré’s son Yannick, about the potential for a deal involving WPP. WPP’s shares have fallen by almost two-thirds so far this year, as the company has been hit by fears that artificial intelligence tools will eat its revenues. This has left the company vulnerable to being relegated from the FTSE 100 at the next quarterly reshuffle…. Updated at 10.49am GMT 8.09am GMT Swiss economy shrank 0.5% in Q3 Newsflash: Switzerland’s economy shrank in the third quarter of the year too! Switzerland, which has also been badly hit by the Trump trade wars, has just reported that its economy shrank by 0.5% in July-September compared with the previous three months. The downturn is being blamed on weakness in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, which were both hurt by the new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump this year. Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs says: Driven by a sharp decline in value added in the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, industry as a whole recorded negative growth. The services sector grew at a below-average rate. Industry as a whole declined while the services sector grew at a below-average rate, the government added. This will add to the relief in Zurich that they have reached a deal with Trump that cuts tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% as part of a new trade pact. Related: Trump accused of caving to big business after deal to cut Swiss tariffs to 15% 7.59am GMT G7 growth leaderboard Japan is the first of the G7 countries to report its economy contracted in the last quarter. With the US yet to report GDP data for Q3 2025, here’s the leaderboard: France: + 0.5% quarterly growth UK: +0.1% Canada: +0.1% (provisional estimate) Germany: 0% Italy: 0% Japan: -0.4% 7.41am GMT Japan's tourism shares slump as diplomatic rift with China deepens As well as news that its economy shrank in the last quarter, Japan has also been hit by an escalating dispute with China over Taiwan. Shares in Japanese tourism and retail companies have fallen today, after China advised its citizens to avoid travelling to Japan. This move by Beijing escalated a diplomatic feud sparked by comments from Tokyo’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, on the possibility of deploying forces in the event of a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan. Related: China advises against travel to Japan amid escalating row over PM’s Taiwan comments This triggered a wave of selling across Japanese leisure stocks. Shares in Oriental Land, which operates Tokyo Disneyland, have fallen by 5.7% today. Department store chain Isetan Mitsukoshi, which makes substantial sales to Chinese visitors, has tumbled by 11.3%. Travel stocks were hit too, with Japan Airlines falling 3.75%. Masahiko Loo, a senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management in Tokyo, explains: “The China–Japan dispute over Taiwan and Beijing’s advisory discouraging travel to Japan introduces near-term headwinds for consumer-facing sectors. “Chinese visitors account for roughly 25% of Japan’s inbound traffic, making department stores, luxury retail, and hospitality particularly vulnerable.” Related: China travel warning for Japan sends shares in tourism and retail companies plunging Updated at 8.42am GMT 7.34am GMT Introduction: Japan's economy contracts as exports are hit by US tariffs Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. Donald Trump’s trade wars continue to bruise the global economy, dampening demand and weakening trade links. Japan is the latest country to show the effects – its economy has shrunk for the first time in six quarters. Japanese GDP fell by 0.4% in the July-September quarter, new official data shows, as its manufacturers’ exports were hit by the tariffs imposed by the US this year. Exports were a key driver of the contraction; they fell by 1.2% compared with the April-June quarter, and were 4.5% lower than a year ago. Back in April, Trump threatened Japan with a new 25% tariff on its goods at the US border, which was cut to 15% in July when the two countries reached a trade deal. Related: Trump announces Japan trade deal as doubt cast over future of PM Ishiba Private demand also fell, by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. On an annualised basis, Japan’s real gross domestic product shrank by 1.8% on an annualized basis in the three months through September. Although that’s better than the 2.4% fall which economists had expected, it could bolster new prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s case to compile an ambitious stimulus programme. Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities says (via Bloomberg): “Japan’s economy was solid in the first half of this year and today’s GDP showed that momentum is halted temporarily. I expect Japan’s economy to be back on a moderate recovery trend going forward.” The White House has belatedly woken up to the impact of tariffs on Americans (who pay the levies) too – late last week, Trump lowered the tariffs on food imports, including beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, amid growing concerns about rising costs. Related: Trump reverses course and cuts tariffs on US food imports The agenda 8am GMT: Swiss GDP report for Q3 10am GMT: European Commission releases Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast 3pm GMT: US construction spending data for August Updated at 8.43am GMT