UK stock market hits one-month low as AI bubble fears mount, and borrowing exceeds forecasts in October – business live

8.59am GMT European defence shares have fallen to their lowest levels since early September today, after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he will negotiate with Donald Trump on a US-backed peace plan to end the war with Russia. An index of European aerospace and defence companies is down 2.55% today. Germany’s RENK, which makes drivetrain and suspensions for military vehicles, has fallen by 5.35%, with arms maker Rheinmetall down 4.7%. Updated at 8.59am GMT 8.50am GMT Uncertainty over when US central bankers might next cut interest rates is adding to the market turmoil. Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets, says investors have been flooded with a truckload of Fed speak in recent sessions, which has echoed a cautious/hawkish vibe. Hill explains: Governor Michael Barr urged caution regarding further rate cuts, as inflation remains above target, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that premature easing could prolong high inflation and elevate financial stability risks. Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee also expressed concerns about a December cut. However, countering this view, Governor Stephen Miran stated that policy remains restrictive and should be eased to neutral. 8.32am GMT There’s another sell-off in crypto assets today too. Bitcoin is currently down 3.3% and earlier hit a low of $82,032, the weakest level since mid-April. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says: The crash in cryptocurrencies may be forcing investors to liquidate other positions – likely their tech bets. Bitcoin is testing the $86k level at the time of writing, and to be fair, there’s nothing to stop the fall given that we have no idea what a coin is worth – other than the value we collectively give it. 8.21am GMT XTB: Stocks on track for worst week since April European markets are a sea of red, as the major bourses end the week poorly. Germany’s DAX index has dropped by 1.3%, France’s CAC is 0.9% lower, and Spain’s IBEX has lost 1.3%. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says: The premise for stocks on Thursday was strong: Nvidia’s results were stunning, and the US unemployment rate rose, sparking hope that the FOMC may consider a rate cut next month. However, there was a categorical reversal in sentiment, stocks plunged, intra-day volatility surged to its highest level since April, and Nvidia’s share price shed 3%. Stocks are now on track to register their worst week since President Trump’s tariff plan ripped through markets back in April. 8.19am GMT Asia-Pacific markets have fallen again today. China’s CSI 300 has dropped by 2.4% today, while South Korea’s KOSPI index has shed 4.2%. 8.06am GMT FTSE 100 hits one-month low as AI bubble fears rise Shares are falling faster than wickets in Perth at the start of trading in London, as fears of an AI bubble rip through markets again. Following losses on Wall Street last night, the FTSE 100 share index has dropped by 104 points, or just over 1%, at the start of trading to 9423 points. That’s a one-month low. Defence firm Babcock (-4.7%) is leading the followers, followed by technology investor Polar Capital, then precious metals producers Endeavour Mining (-4.1%) and Fresnillo (-4.5%). This follows wild trading in the US yesterday, where stocks initially rallied but then fell back as investors digested forecast-beating results from Nvidia and a mixed US jobs report. Despite Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings exceeded expectations, concerns persist around the firms using those chips to invest in AI, spending heavily and driving that demand. “The people who are selling the semiconductors to help power AI doesn’t alleviate the concerns that some of these hyper-scalers are spending way too much money on building the AI infrastructure,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. “You have the company that’s benefiting it, but the others are still spending too much money.” Related: AI bubble fears return as Wall Street falls back from short-lived rally Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says: it’s been a truly remarkable 24 hours, with a sequence of moves that were almost impossible to predict…. After the world’s largest company reported spectacular results, the stock was up around +5% by 3pm London time. It closed down -3.15%. The broader market followed a similar pattern: the S&P 500 initially climbed +1.93%, only to fade and close down -1.56% as doubts about AI valuations crept back in. That marked the biggest intra-day swing for the S&P since the six days of extreme market turmoil that followed the Liberation Day tariffs in early April. Adding to the negative backdrop for crypto were lingering questions over the crypto market structure bill that’s being worked on in Congress. Updated at 8.07am GMT 7.52am GMT Ofgem’s decision to raise the UK price cap slightly, as we enter the coldest months of the year, is a blow. Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch.com, calls it a “tedious disappointment’: “Millions of homes will now have their heating on to cope with this week’s cold snap, so the stubbornly high energy price cap is a stark reminder of the need for households to take matters into their own hands. “Industry forecasts had been predicting a small fall in the cap, so this increase will be a tedious disappointment for the millions of standard tariff customers who are already paying over the odds for their energy. “Customers on a price-capped tariff can switch to a fixed deal now and start seeing average savings of £185 a year. In doing so, they’ll also protect themselves from the predicted increase we might see in April. “Consumers should run a comparison for their usage levels and region. For households able to switch, fixing now at a cheaper rate is the best defence against high winter bills. “Two million households are planning to go without central heating this winter, which is a damning indictment of the state of energy affordability. All eyes are now on next week’s Budget and whether the Chancellor can deliver any more meaningful support on energy bills. “Importantly, a mooted removal of VAT on energy bills would apply to all customers - so those choosing a fixed deal to beat the price cap would save twice.” 7.39am GMT Capital Economics: A bleak backdrop for the Budget This morning’s economic data paints “a pretty grim picture”, creating a bleak backdrop for the Budget, says Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics. On the public finances, Gregory explains: The £17.4bn of public sector net borrowing in October was once again higher than the consensus forecast of £15.1bn and the OBR’s forecast of £14.4bn. This means that after seven months of the 2025/26 financial year, public sector net borrowing is a huge £9.9bn higher than the OBR forecast at the Spring Statement in March. The overshoot in the Chancellor’s chosen fiscal mandate of the current budget is even greater, at £15.1bn. Higher local authority spending, which is particularly subject to revision, has been a key source of the overshoot. But the slow growth of tax receipts has played a part too, which has been surprising given that high inflation has boosted consumer spending in nominal terms. And on retail sales, the 1.1% month-on-month-fall in retail sales volumes in October “isn’t quite as bad as it looks”, and could be reversed in November if consumers were indeed holding back spending ahead of Black Friday But, she adds: The risk is that the fourth quarter isn’t a golden one for retailers and that higher taxes in the Budget restrain retail spending over the crucial festive period and going into next year. 7.24am GMT Quilter Cheviot: Reeves is running out of room Today’s borrowing figures compound the woes for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she seeks to plug gaps in the public finances and find extra to rebuild her headroom for future shocks, says Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot: Carter points out that borrowing so far this financial year is £9bn higher than a year before, which he says highlights the extent to which the government has increased borrowing since coming to power last year. “Markets and investors are craving some sort of fiscal responsibility from the UK government, but with next week expected to bring yet more tax rises and potential unintended consequences, one does begin to question how long this current approach can last. Without a shift in the fiscal rules again, the UK economy is bound between tax rises, spending cuts or a combination of the two. So far this government has preferred to use the lever of tax rises and found its backbenchers have jammed the spending cuts one. Economic growth is subsequently difficult to achieve and shows no sign of taking off again any time soon. “Gilt yields have been climbing higher once again in recent weeks, and the UK still has a risk premium attached to it compared to peers. Ultimately, today’s borrowing figures suggest Reeves is running out of room, and potentially time, to kick start the economy and get it growing once again. While rate cuts will help, inflation remains sticky and as such the Bank of England may not act as aggressively as the government would like. The ball is in Reeves’ court, but her next move will prove crucial next week.” 7.18am GMT Borrowing lower than in October 2024 At £17.4bn, UK government borrowing in October was £1.8bn less than October 2024 (a smaller fall than expected). This fall was due to taxes rising faster than spending. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner explains: “Borrowing this October was down on the same month last year, although it was still the third-highest October figure on record in cash terms. “While spending on public services and benefits were both up on October last year, this was more than offset by increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions.” Updated at 7.18am GMT 7.08am GMT UK borrowing higher than forecast in October Newsflash (yes, another one): The UK government borrowed more than forecast last month to balance the books, highlighting the fiscal challenge facing Rachel Reeves in next month’s budget. The Office for National Statistics has reported that the UK borrowed £17.4bn in October, to cover the shortfall between tax income and spending. City economists had expected borrowing to drop to £15bn, down from the £20bn borrowed in September. Significantly, this is £3bn more than the £14.4bn forecast in March 2025 by the Office for Budget Responsibility. So far this year, the UK government has borrowed £116.8bn; £9.0bn more than in the same seven-month period of 2024. That’s the second-highest April to October borrowing (not adjusted for inflation) on record, after that of 2020. 7.04am GMT GB retail sales fall for first time since May Newsflash: Retail sales fell across Great Britain last month, for the first time since May. The Office for National Statistics has reported that retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in October 2025. The ONS says: Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order retailers fell in October 2025, which some retailers attributed to consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday. That follows a 0.7% rise in September (revised up from a 0.5% rise) and a 0.5% increase in August (revised down from a 0.6% rise) 6.54am GMT UK energy cap to rise by 0.2% in January Newsflash: Hopes for a small fall in energy bills across Great Britain have been dashed. Regulator Ofgem has just announced that from 1 January to 31 March 2026 there will be a small monthly increase of 28 pence on the price of energy for a typical household who use electricity and gas and pay by Direct Debit. The change means the average dual fuel energy bill will increase to £1,758 per year in January to March, up from £1755 in the current quarter, an increase of 0.2%. As flagged in the introduction, forecasters had expected a 1% drop in the cap which would have saved a typical household £22 per year. Ofgem says: Compared to the level between January and March 2025, it is 1% or £20 lower. Year on year when adjusted for inflation the new cap is 2% or £37 lower than the same period in 2025. The annual cost for people who use electricity and gas and pay by Direct Debit would be £1,758 per year (0.2%). Updated at 7.00am GMT 6.45am GMT AI bubble fears return as Wall Street falls back from short-lived rally There may be jitters in the European markets today, after losses on Wall Street last night. Fears of a growing bubble around the artificial intelligence frenzy resurfaced yesterday, less than 24 hours after strong results from chipmaker Nvidia sparked a rally. Wall Street initially rose after Nvidia, the world’s largest public company, reassured investors of strong demand for its advanced data center chips. But the relief dissipated, and technology stocks at the heart of the AI boom came under pressure. The benchmark S&P 500 closed down 1.6%, and the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 0.8% in New York. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.2%. Related: AI bubble fears return as Wall Street falls back from short-lived rally The futures market indicates we’ll see losses in London when trading begins at 8am. 6.41am GMT Introduction: Public finances, retail sales and price cap coming up Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. We’re about to get the final healthcheck on the UK economy ahead of next week’s budget. The latest public finances are expected to show the UK borrowed around £15bn in October to cover the shortfall between tax receipts and spending. Economists will scrutinise the data to see whether the government has fallen further off course against the forecasts set in March. New retail sales data is also due, and show whether consumers were hit by pre-budget caution. The City expects retail sales were flat month-on-month in October, but up 1.5% compared with a year ago. And in a flurry of early morning news, energy regulator Ofgem is about to set the latest price cap on bills across Great Britain. Households may get a little respite from rising costs – the cap is expected to drop by around 1% from January due to lower wholesale gas prices. That would lower the average dual-fuel bill for a typical household to £1,733 a year, down £22, forecaster Cornwall Insight has said. Related: Energy price cap in Great Britain expected to fall in January – but higher bills loom The agenda 7am GMT: UK public finances for October 7am GMT: UK retail sales for October 7am GMT: UK energy price cap for January-March 2026 to be set 8am GMT: Eurozone flash PMI economic data 9:30am GMT: UK flash PMI economic data 3.40pm GMT: Bank of England chief economistHuw Pill panellist in Zurich on ‘the future of the world’s leading currencies’